MINAWI ON DIVIDED CHADIAN SUPPORT FOR REBELS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000564

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, AND
AF/C
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU CD
SUBJECT: MINAWI ON DIVIDED CHADIAN SUPPORT FOR REBELS,
DARFUR SECESSION, AND CENSUS DELAY

REF: A. NDJAMENA 00123

B. NDJAMENA 00126

C. NDJAMENA 00127

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Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) and (
d)

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Summary
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1. (C) In a wide-ranging conversation on April 12, Senior
Assistant to the President Minni Minawi discussed the
emergence of two competing streams of Chadian support for
Darfur's rebel movements--one led by DAUSA Deby and focused
on recruiting SLM fighters to augment the URF--and another
led by Intelligence Chief Mohammed Chaibo. Minawi also
discussed President Bashir's growing frustration with the
Darfur issue and his alleged readiness to allow Darfur's
secession, as well as the unfeasibility of the census in
Darfur, particularly in light of the postponement called by
the Government of Southern Sudan. Deby's support for the URF
over JEM may be a pragmatic response to fears that a Sudanese
offensive in West Darfur will weaken JEM and deprive
N'djamena of a needed backer should Chadian rebels launch a
new offensive. Minawi's continued opposition to the census
is consistent with the stance of every major rebel movement
and the majority of Darfur's population, and we should expect
an up-tick in violence if the census proceeds in the region.
End summary.

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CHADIAN GOVERNMENT SPLIT ON JEM VERSUS URF
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2. (C) Confirming other reports (reftels),Senior Assistant
to the President and Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) Chairman
Minni Minawi told Poloff on April 12 that DAUSA Deby, the
influential brother of President Idriss Deby and
long-standing Chadian interlocutor with the Darfur rebel
movements, has joined Defense Minister Mohammed Ali Nasour to
back the United Revolutionary Front (URF) over the Justice
and Equality Movement (JEM). By contrast, Chadian
intelligence chief Mohammed Ismail Chaibo and the national
police commissioner are diverting the bulk of support to JEM.
In addition to funneling weapons and money to the URF, DAUSA
Deby and Nasour have been active in recruiting fighters from
the various factions of the SLM and from the IDP camps in
Darfur to augment URF forces, said Minawi. Assertive Chadian
operatives are even attempting to recruit from within
Minawi's own faction, spurring him to lodge a complaint with
Dausa Deby six days earlier. Deby denied the accusations,
and Minawi claimed that these recruitment efforts have "not
taken away even one of my guys."

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Bashir Tired of Darfur
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3. (C) The increasingly fractious political environment in
Darfur, Chadian meddling, and international pressure has
pushed President Bashir to complete frustration, reported
Minawi. He said that, in a recent meeting with Bashir, the
President had declared that "once UNAMID deploys, we'll give
up Darfur." Asked whether this meant that Bashir has
accepted independence for Darfur as inevitable or instead
intends to delay UNAMID deployment in order to prevent such a
development, Minawi said he interpreted the remark as the
former. (Note: Bashir's comment echoes similar reports that
have emerged in Khartoum in recent months that a growing
number of the Arab elite no longer wish to expend the energy
and money to fight political battles with the peripheral
areas and are privately--if not publicly--content to see
Southern Sudan and Darfur break away from Sudan's central
regions as long as Khartoum can hold on to its oil-producing
areas, many of which are in the South. End note.)

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Support for SPLM Position on Census
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4. (C) As if to illustrate the political pressures that
complicate governance of Sudan, Minawi then said that he had
learned from the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM)
that the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) intended to
"call off" the census in Southern Sudan scheduled to begin

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April 15 (septel). Minawi restated his previous position
that the census should not move forward in Darfur. Given the
likelihood that IDPs and refugees will not be counted, he
predicted that a flawed census will inaccurately reflect an
Arab majority in Darfur.

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Comment
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5. (C) While Minawi would have no reason to fabricate claims
that DAUSA Deby is spearheading efforts to recruit members
for Darfur rebel groups from within Minawi's movement, he is
downplaying the likelihood of Dausa's success, given the
paucity of resources available to Minawi to maintain loyalty
within his ranks. Deby's real motives remain obtuse but the
result is clear: strong Chadian material support for Darfur's
rebel movements, many of which specialize in highway robbery
and looting humanitarian aid shipments rather than fighting
the Sudanese Army. However, support for the URF may be a
pragmatic response to fears that a Sudanese offensive in West
Darfur will weaken JEM and deprive N'djamena of a key backer
should Chadian rebels launch a new offensive. Minawi's
continued opposition to the census is consistent with the
stance of every major rebel movement and the majority of the
local population, all of whom are likely to seize on the
GoSS' recent announcement to demand a similar postponement in
Darfur. If the census nonetheless moves forward in Darfur,
we should expect an up-tick in violence.


6. (U) Tripoli minimize considered.
FERNANDEZ