GOSS MINISTER KWAJE ON ABYEI BORDER COMPROMISE, LRA TALKS,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000519 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SE WILLIAMSON AND AF/SPG DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI SU UG SUBJECT: GOSS MINISTER KWAJE ON ABYEI BORDER COMPROMISE, LRA TALKS, AND POSSIBLE CENSUS BOYCOTT ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On the evening of April 1, CG Datta was invited to a GoSS dinner in honor of the visiting South African Foreign Minister. At that dinner, Datta had a long discussion with Samson Kwaje, GoSS Minister of Agriculture and prominent player in the SPLM, that touched on an NCP offer on the Abeyi border demarcation, the census, the state of negotiations with the LRA and the CPA Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC). End summary. Abyei Border Offer a "Poor Deal" -------------- ¶2. (SBU) CG Datta mentioned to Kwaje that he had heard that a compromise on Abyei border demarcation might be near at hand, with the NCP conceding a more northerly line, closer to where the GoSS thinks it ought to be. The reported deal would separate the land and oil issues by allowing the North to continue to benefit from oil revenues produced south of this border line. The Minister responded that such an offer had indeed been made and that while the SPLM is studying it, he expected the SPLM to turn it down. ¶3. (SBU) Kwaje said the offer does bring the Abyei demarcation close to where the SPLM thinks it should be, but on either side of Abyei it shaves off considerable segments of Southern territory for the North that contain large mineral resources. The South would never give those areas up simply to get what already belongs to it by right in Abyei. It is a poor deal, he concluded. (NOTE: As reported septel, the NCP tabled for SPLM consideration a re-drawing of Abyei's north-eastern border that excludes the oil-rich areas surrounding Heglig. END NOTE) Doubts About LRA Peace Deal -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Kwaje, who has been active in the LRA peace negotiations, then expressed his extreme frustration with the latest delays by LRA leader Joseph Kony in signing the peace agreement. Originally scheduled to take place in Rikwangba on April 3, Kony said he could not make it until sometime around April 10. Kwaje expressed anger at Kony's continued delaying tactics, indicating for the first time to CG Datta his doubts that Kony will sign at all. "He doesn't trust Museveni or the UN," said Kwaje, "and I think he fears he will be arrested or assassinated in Rikwanmba." The Sudanese, he said, still hoped for an agreement, but are beginning to fear the peace talks will collapse. GoSS Census Boycott? -------------- ¶5. (SBU) On the subject of the approaching national census, Kwaje expressed the view that the GoSS will stage a boycott over the absence of questions on ethnicity and religion. CG Datta advised that such a boycott this late in the game would be ill advised, and would allow the NCP to effectively blame the collapse of the process on the SPLM. The international community, he said, would have a difficult time understanding the reason for such a boycott, and it would damage the SPLM's reputation, especially since the SPLM had originally agreed to the removal of the questions and the international community knows that. ¶6. (SBU) The Minister responded that while that might well be true, the question of religion and ethnicity had been at the heart of the long civil war between the North and South. Kwaje said that the NCP always had justified its oppression of the South on the basis of the alleged Arab/Muslim identity of Sudan, in which the South felt it had no part. If the census fails to settle once and for all whether or not Sudan is a predominantly Arab country, it has no value for the SPLM. (Comment: The issue obviously touched deep emotional chords in Kwaje, and no amount of persuasion by CG Datta concerning the damage a census boycott would do to the SPLM in international public opinion or to the CPA was able to convince him otherwise. End comment.) The SPLM and the AEC -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Finally, CG Datta urged that the GoSS do a better job of staffing the CPA's Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC),where they are being ill served by a lack of experienced and qualified personnel to represent their interests. This lack of engagement is creating a poor image for the SPLM among the international community represented on the AEC. The Kenyan Ambassador, who was participating in the conversation and who sits on the AEC, agreed with CG Datta, stating that the GoSS representatives are ill prepared and usually have nothing to contribute at meetings. Minister Kwaje expressed surprise at this news and said he would raise the issued with senior SPLM leadership. Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Minister Kwaje was no more pessimistic than normal about the intentions of the NCP. The anticipated SPLM rejection of the KHARTOUM 00000519 002 OF 002 proposed agreement on Abyei is disappointing, though to be expected. The NCP improved its offer on Abyei in this latest round of negotiations (septel) but the SPLM obviously believes it can get an even better deal by holding out. As Kwaje's views are widely held in the SPLM, we can expect to see continued confrontation between the North and South in the coming months, especially over Abyei. FERNANDEZ