ABYEI'S MISERIYYA FEAR AND DISTRUST BOTH THE NCP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000507 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF/SPG, SE WILLIAMSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL SOCI SUBJECT: ABYEI'S MISERIYYA FEAR AND DISTRUST BOTH THE NCP AND SPLM IN NORTH-SOUTH CONFLICT REF: A. KHARTOUM 435 ¶B. KHARTOUM 432 ¶C. KHARTOUM 328 ¶D. KHARTOUM 313 Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Miseriyya Arabs of Southern Kordofan and Abyei both fear and distrust the National Congress Party (NCP) and Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) in the political struggle on Abyei, worrying that they will pay the ultimate price in a larger struggle. Seeing their way of life as nomadic cattle herders threatened, most try to maintain an uneasy distance from a radical or cynical minority armed and abetted by Khartoum to wage war against the Dinka, and the rising strength and chauvinism of some Dinka, who backed up by an increasingly intransigent SPLA, feel their day of redemption has come. Miseriyya leaders freely admit that the NCP, through the action of a notorious Darfur war criminal, is encouraging violence while simultaneously pursuing a peace deal, but most Miseriyya seem to be resisting that siren call. Spoiled by their relationship with Chevron in the 1980s, the Miseriyya warmly welcome American engagement and interest, and seek US development assistance. End summary. -------------- CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO FIRES -------------- ¶2. (C) Sudan's Miseriyya Arabs are one of two local protagonists to the continuing political crisis over the contested (and oil-rich) Abyei region of Sudan, now in its third year since the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Often portrayed as NCP proxies or stooges by facile journalists parachuting into Sudan for a few days, the Miseriyya are actually a much more complex community in turmoil, pressured and enticed by an NCP eager to enlist them as potential allies against the SPLA/SPLM, who support the Miseriyya's intimate neighbors and rivals, the Ngok Dinka. But the Miseriyya must have a working symbiotic relationship with South Sudan if their herds are going to graze unmolested. CDA Fernandez followed up meetings with Miseriyya in Khartoum with intense discussions April 2-3 in Abyei town and Muglad with other Miseriyya leaders. ¶3. (C) A more intimate initial meeting with 4-5 Miseriyya sheikhs in Abyei was followed with a wider, more raucous session in the town of Muglad with 40-50 traditional leaders, including Amir Mukhtar Bubu Nimr of the leading Owlad Kamal Miseriyya. The complaints, fears and aspirations were the same in both places, with some surprising revelations: ¶4. (C) "We are not neighbors of the Dinka," began Kabashi Tom, an Abyei Sheikh, "we are brothers with them. We are not Arabs of the Arabian Peninsula. This black skin of ours is because of intermarriage with the Dinka. " This intimate relationship can be seen throughout both communities, even among leaders of contending factions: the current SPLM interim administrator for Abyei Edward Lino, an SPLA hardliner, has an "uncle-nephew" relationship with Muhammad Omar al-Ansari, radical Miseriyya leader of the bogus "Abyei Liberation Front," according to both Dinka and Miseriyya. -------------- DARFUR WAR CRIMINAL MEDDLING IN ABYEI -------------- ¶5. (C) Other Miseriyya choice comments: "we are oppressed. We are being slaughtered and crushed between two fires. The NCP and the SPLM fight it out and we pay the price." -- "We were here first, we arrived in the 1700s and the Dinka did not arrive until the late 19th century. All of this land is ours, down to 40 miles south of Abyei town (which would be the border with Northern Bahr al-Ghazal state)." -- "We want access to water, pasture and safety, that is all. We don't have problems with anyone, not with the SPLM or the Dinka. We just want to be left in peace." -- "The SPLM-controlled administration in Abyei hires only Dinkas and is purging existing Miseriyya teachers, police and other state employees. Here in Muglad there are Dinka employees living safely and working in government jobs. Such discrimination is not right." (Note: The "administrator" is still unofficial as the GNU still has not put a temporary administrator in place). KHARTOUM 00000507 002 OF 003 -- "SPLM refuses to allow NGOs to work with the Miseriyya around Abyei because they don't want to encourage us to stay" (this seems to be at least partially true and was confirmed by some NGO workers and UN officials). -- "SPLA checkpoints stop Miseriyya and, when they don't kill them, rob Miseriyya and also take any weapon they may be carrying including the small ceremonial shoulder knives carried by many men in Western Sudan. All outside forces should leave this area, both SPLA from outside Abyei and SAF units not made up of Miseriyya." -- "Our biggest problem is poverty, ignorance, marginalization and lack of development. Lack of development leads to despair. Foreign NGOs favor the South over us. There is just not enough grazing land and water and herds are too big." -- "Things were much better when the British were here." -- "The Abyei protocol unfairly favors the Ngok Dinka, and this is especially true with the biased ABC experts report. This is a time bomb created by the American John Danforth. The American favoritism for the SPLM against the NCP comes at our expense in Abyei." -- "The fault of all of this is the NCP. They are the creators of all of our problems. We are marginalized people like those in the South and Darfur. We never had problems with the Dinka before the NCP took power in 1989 (NOTE: This is not true since there were Dinka-Miseriyya clashes in the 1960s that displaced thousands). We need an interim administration appointed immediately. If we received the 2 percent in Abyei oil revenues guaranteed to the Miseriyya in the CPA, many of our problems would be solved." -- "What we need is the end of Khartoum's interference here, both the NCP and the SPLM are playing a negative role. The NCP sent (ICC indicted war criminal and Minister of State for Humanitarian Affairs) Ahmed Haroun here in the past months to distribute arms and money for Miseriyya to join the Popular Defense Forces (PDF) in order to fight the Dinka. We don't want to fight or to have our children killed. Haroun worked through (former South Kordofan Deputy Governor) Issa al-Bashari to do this but this is not the Miseriyya way. We want peace. We are a tribe, not a party or a state." (Note: This entire statement was met with great support by most present at the Muglad meeting. A couple stood up to vociferously defend the PDF and the idea of war but were shouted down). -- "I cannot allow this insult to the PDF to go unanswered. We have lost hundreds of dead and villages burned. It is all the SPLM's fault. They are aggressively and illegally moving north in violation of the CPA. Any Miseriyya found alone in the bush is killed without mercy...we need to avenge our children, we need to fight fire with fire, tanks with tanks, artillery with artillery." (Note: At these words, many in the audience began to murmur and complain. "The SPLA is using poisoned, illegal weapons against us, they need to be crushed" (at this point, the speaker, probably a PDF commander himself, was booed and hissed down by the other sheikhs and not allowed to continue. He was conspicuously absent when the sheikhs said farewell to CDA Fernandez)." -------------- AMERICA IS NOT AGAINST THE MISERIYYA -------------- ¶6. (C) Charge Fernandez's comments to Miseriyya leaders in these various meetings was the same: there is a need for patience, wisdom, reconciliation, for self-discipline, for non-provocation in both word and deed. The CPA is too important to fail. The Miseriyya should not let themselves be exploited by outside forces to the detriment of Miseriyya interests. The United States supports the full and immediate implementation of the Abyei protocol - this is long overdue. Implementing the protocol means either accepting the ABC (Abyei Boundary Commission) report (a non-starter as it was rejected by President Al-Bashir in 2005 and is detested by many Miseriyya) or a compromise accepted by both the SPLM and NCP (more likely to actually happen - eventually). The United States has some problems and issues with the Sudanese Government, but nothing but goodwill and intentions towards the Miseriyya. ¶7. (C) Given that UN SRSG Qazi failed (because of technical problems or travel permits) only days ago to make it to Muglad to meet with Miseriyya tribal leaders, it was KHARTOUM 00000507 003 OF 003 important for the United States to make that personal connection. There is much anger among the Miseriyya. This is made worse by provocative false rumors spreading like wildfire in the region and the sensationalist coverage much of the Khartoum media gives to events in Abyei. But most Miseriyya fear and anger is still tempered by the cold light of reason and self-interest. ¶8. (C) Comment: Given the slowly rising level of violence, the NCP provocations, and recent aggressive action by SPLA units, it is remarkable that most Miseriyya still want out from any conflict. They seem to sense instinctively that they will pay a heavy price in any Abyei conflict, whether it is instigated by the SPLM or NCP. The NCP's efforts to use the notorious Ahmed Haroun to whip up hatred and violence in Dar Miseriyya as he did in Darfur is an outrageous action which deserves condemnation but it seems to have mostly failed to date (there also seem to be Ahmed Haroun "wannabes" among the Dinka in Abyei - see septel). Clearly there is a need for sustained American engagement with the Miseriyya - both diplomacy and development - to encourage responsible, moderate leadership among this key tribe in one of Sudan's many hotspots. Fortunately, some of these influential leaders already exist. End comment. FERNANDEZ