LITTLE PROGRESS ON DEMOBILIZATION AND DISARMAMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000506 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/SPG ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2018 TAGS: PREL KPKO MARR AU UN SU SUBJECT: LITTLE PROGRESS ON DEMOBILIZATION AND DISARMAMENT Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and ( d) ¶1. (C) Summary: State Minister of International Cooperation (and SPLM member) Elias Wakoson told CDA Fernandez that Demobilization, Disarmament and Reintegration (DDR) efforts have fallen short due to the availability of arms and the lack of dispute resolution alternatives. He said the lack of DDR success leaves the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM) vulnerable politically. With regard to SPLM politics, he said that SPLM would like to take advantage of NCP failings in Darfur but SPLM leaders have not committed to travel there. The SPLM plans to travel to neighboring countries, particularly Chad and Libya, to shore up SPLM ties in the region. End summary. SCANT SUCCESS IN DEMOBILIZATION AND DISARMAMENT -------------- - ¶2. (C) State Minister of International Cooperation Wakoson told CDA Fernandez on April 1 that his ministry is responsible for Demobilization, Disarmament and Reintegration (DDR) progRams "ut las achyevee vdry`litt,e pzogreks t/ d!te> !Hi ~oteelc il)wzx'{sepdetin$uIp PnMQ]Hl tmH!H}p=y`Hevh4uOcsDksxj$uQd}3Ccp6(Y} Qytiujw`IK0gQdiQ {{zZQraphic area in which to operate, and the size the problem -- there are simply too many weapons and not enough jobs. In addition, he said that tribal politics in the South and traditional methods of solving disputes work against effective DDR programs. For example, he said Dinka tribesmen dispense "instant" justice, using automatic weapons to kill more people in retaliation than were killed in the inciting act. Wakoson (who is not Dinka) claimed that minority tribes practice restraint by not retaliating and work out disputes through a third party. ¶3. (C) Wakoson said the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) is vulnerable politically for not having implemented DDR programs. He said this year the Government of Sudan (GOS) has provided $3 million in funding for the DDR, but all of it went toward salaries. Wakoson predicted that without greater GOSS funding for programs, the National Congress Party (NCP) will use the lack of GOSS progress in program areas for political advantage during the elections. Wakoson noted that the GOS position is that the GOSS and GNU should fund DDR in their respective areas. Generally there has been more progress on DDR in North Sudan because there is a more developed government and economy in the north. CHALLENGES OF WORKING WITH WAR CRIMINAL HARUN -------------- ¶4. (C) Asked about challenges in administering the ministry, Wakoson cited the complications of coordinating between so many agencies, both international and domestic. One of the domestic agencies that the MIC works with is the Ministry of Humanitarian Assistance (MHA) whose State Minister is Ahmad Mohamed Harun, who was indicted in 2007 by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity in Darfur. Wakoson said, "I call him our Janjaweed and we suspect that the NCP appointed him on purpose to send a message to the international community." He speculated that the NCP is worried that if Harun is ever tried at the ICC, he will certainly implicate others in the regime so they don't allow Harun to travel. BASHIR SUSPICIOUS OF FOREIGNERS -------------- ¶5. (C) Wakoson said his work is further complicated because the Government of Sudan under President Bashir objects to the presence of foreigners in Sudan believing all of them, including the UN, to be agents of the CIA. Wakoson referred to recent statements by National Intelligence Security Services (NISS) Director Saleh Ghosh at a March 31 conference on national security, where Ghosh pushed for strong laws to contain "the growing foreign exploitation within Sudan." Wakoson said the GOS has angered Norway by their refusal to accept its offer of troops to the UN Darfur mission. Sudan's aggressive statements on Denmark (because of the Danish cartoon controversy) also hurt a relationship with a country that has been helpful in South Sudan. Wakoson said he thought the regime's attitude toward the West was ill-conceived, because "you can't live without friends in this world.". KHARTOUM 00000506 002 OF 002 SPLM'S INABILITY TO DELEGATE -------------- ¶6. (C) CDA Fernandez pointed out that dissatisfaction in Darfur particularly among IDPs is an opportunity for the SPLM to make inroads politically. Wakoson said that while IDPs appear to be listening to the SPLM, the problem is to get high ranking SPLM officials to visit the region. Wakoson said he urged Salva Kiir to visit Darfur to present the SPLM's case, and the SPLM had gone as far as sending an advance team, but he claimed Pagan Amun is reluctant to commit to a high level SPLM visit. Wakoson noted there are a number of capable people in the SPLM, but the top leadership is hesitant to delegate responsibility to others, possibly due to a lack of trust. CDA pointed out that in the past some SPLM members, like former FM Lam Akol, have demonstrated that they could not be trusted. ¶7. (SBU) Wakoson said the SPLM will likely send delegations to neighboring countries such as Chad, Ethiopia, and Libya to seek support. Wakoson said Chadian president Deby has expressed on interest in meeting with the SPLM. Wakoson said the SPLM is in contact with the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and had advised them to exercise POLITICAL and military restraint and announce that JEM would not engage in any further military confrontations with the GOS. ¶8. (C) Wakoson lamented the lack of progress by both the NCP and the SPLM in implementing agreements made when the SPLM agreed to rejoin the GNU in December. ¶9. (SBU) BIO NOTE -- Wakoson spent 22 years in the United States and graduated from Texas A&M University. He taught for two years at Bowling Green University in Ohio before moving to Denison College. Wakoson lamented that he didn't have time to apply for his social security benefits when he hurriedly returned to Sudan to accept his posting as State Minister for International Cooperation. CDA cautioned Wakoson that while US sanctions would not affect his SSI benefits, the sanctions regime might make it difficult to cash U.S. checks at Sudanese banks. However, CDA noted the US is seeking an exemption for SPLM ministers who work in the Government of National Unit as a way of providing relief from the sanctions. ¶10. (SBU) Comment: Wakoson highlighted familiar problems in the NCP-SPLM relationship, with a highly organized but paranoid NCP seeking to undermine the SPLM, and an indecisive SPLM unable to take effective actions and exploit NCP weaknesses. We encouraged Wakoson to coordinate with the Embassy regarding his DDR efforts, to see where we could be of assistance in moving the process forward with the UN and among other donors. FERNANDEZ