AEC TO URGE SPECIAL SESSION ON ABYEI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000466

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF/SPG, SE WILLIAMSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL UN AU SU
SUBJECT: AEC TO URGE SPECIAL SESSION ON ABYEI

REF: A. A) KHARTOUM 435


B. B) KHARTOUM 432

Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, reasons 1.4. (b) and (d)


1. (C) Newly installed Assessment and Evaluation Commission
(AEC) chairman Sir Derek Plumbly met with AEC working group
chairs (UK, Norwegian, Italian and Dutch Ambassadors plus CDA
Fernandez) on March 30 to discuss a more aggressive AEC
stance on political issues and to outline a common agenda for
a March 31 meeting with visiting AU Foreign Ministers (led by
South African Foreign Minister) who are looking at the pace
of CPA implementation.


2. (C) Plumbly began by discussing the AU Foreign Ministers'
visit to Sudan and the opportunity it represents to highlight
the work of the AEC, the progress made in CPA implementation
since 2005, and the considerable remaining challenges
confronting Sudan. CDA Fernandez agreed and urged that the AU
Foreign Ministers be encouraged to support the development
and capacity building of the SPLM and of the Government of
South Sudan (GOSS) "not as rivals to the NCP, but as good
partners and effective stakeholders in CPA implementation."
The better trained and strengthened the SPLM is the more
likely it is that the CPA will hold. An overstretched SPLM
and inefficient GOSS is an open opportunity for mischief by
the National Congress Party.


3. (C) The Dutch Ambassador added that another point to be
made is the integral nature of problems in Sudan, how lack of
CPA implementation can negatively affect Sudan's stability
and events in Darfur and that the opposite is also true --
that greater violence in Darfur (and instability in Chad)
have reverberations in the fragile NCP-SPLM relationship.
Plumbly agreed that, while the focus of the AU visit was CPA,
they needed to be reminded of Darfur.


4. (C) Sir Derek then raised recent meetings he had with
Presidential Advisor Ghazi Salahudin and NCP negotiator Said
al-Khatib where they had both condemned SPLM "escalation in
Abyei" over the past few days by SPLM Abyei head Edward Lino.
Lino was attempting to establish an illegal administration in
violation of the CPA's Abyei protocol, summoning local police
chiefs and administrators. An NCP attempt to get answers or
explanations to these actions from FVP Salva Kiir had been
unsuccessful and the NCP had issued new conditions for the
resumption of talks on Abyei: the immediate termination of
the SPLM administration, the withdrawal of new SPLA troops
sent into Abyei (beyond the existing SAF-SPLA Joint
Integrated Unit - JIU),and stopping "any unilateral steps
that threaten the stability of the area and lead to spoiling
the atmosphere of peace and national dialogue."


5. (C) Both the Norwegian Ambassador and CDA Fernandez noted
that they had met with Foreign Minister Deng Alor (reftel a)
early last week and he had been relatively optimistic and
admitted to some possible NCP concessions. CDA Fernandez
noted that the problem was that both sides were cheating and
being less than honest. The NCP had been much more dishonest
by not implementing the ABC Report in 2005 and leaving the
issue unresolved since then. They had also been encouraging
and arming the Misseriyya Arabs since at least November 2007
(during the NCP-SPLM cabinet crisis) which had resulted in
clashes in Abyei and surrounding areas. The SPLA had upped
the ante by appointing Lino, an SPLA intelligence officer, in
January and by strengthening their military presence. It was
an elaborate and dangerous game of "chicken" to see who
blinked first.


6. (C) The Dutch Ambassador agreed and noted that the
escalation and defusing of tensions in Abyei had become a
pattern now for at least six months, and a further problem is
that "there are not two sides, but four sides in Abyei - the
SPLM, the NCP, the Ngok Dinka, and the Misseriyya - and the
tribal agenda does not exactly overlap with the larger
political one." It is also not clear whether the SPLM has
one position on Abyei or whether the three principals most
closely involved - Deng Alor, Cabinet Affairs Minister Pagan
Amun and GOSS Presidential Affairs Minister Luka Biong Deng -
are all coordinating or playing a separate, deeper game
related to internal SPLM dynamics. Plumbly asked whether
holding a special plenary of the AEC on Abyei is a good idea
or not. All agreed that it was a good idea but that Plumbly
should seek out prior agreement from the two sides because
they have - for different reasons at different times - often
shied away from discussing such contentious matters in an
open forum. All present welcomed CDA Fernandez's visit to
Abyei later this week as a useful step to get some ground
truth on volatile events in the troubled area and asked for
an update upon his return. Plumbly would also compare notes

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with UN SRSG Qazi who returns today from Abyei.


7. (C) Comment: While there is indeed a pattern of escalation
(by one or both sides) followed by further negotiation, the
fact remains that this constant tension is hardening
positions by raising the human costs to those in the region
among the Ngok Dinka and Misseriyya. The possibility that one
side or the other "could go too far" as part of the larger
SPLM/NCP rivalry remains as a constant danger. The NCP's just
announced "conditions for resumption" of talks by themselves
constitute an escalation of public pressure on the SPLM in
response to Lino asserting himself. For two years, without a
deal or administration, Abyei was calm, and this is no longer
the case. CDA Fernandez's visit will be our highest level
visit there in over a year (the NCP has often blocked
attempts by senior visitors or diplomats based in Khartoum
from visiting the region). End comment.

FERNANDEZ