JEM'S CHIEF NEGOTIATOR ON THE CENSUS, PEACE PROCESS, AND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000452 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF/C DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: JEM'S CHIEF NEGOTIATOR ON THE CENSUS, PEACE PROCESS, AND CHAD-SUDAN CONFLICT ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Darfur rebel Justice and Equality Movement's (JEM) Chief Negotiator, Ahmed Tougod, told emboff by satellite phone on March 26 that JEM rejects the upcoming census, the AU-UN's approach to the peace process, and bilateral negotiations with the Government of Sudan (GoS). Tougod, claiming to be near Jebel Moon in West Darfur, stated the Chadian-supported JEM has regrouped and is now "stronger than ever" following government attacks on JEM positions in West Darfur. Tougod also dismissed the Sudan-Chad agreement signed in Dakar on March 13, stating that for the last two weeks his field commanders have witnessed increased GoS support for Chadian opposition movements. END SUMMARY. PEACE PROCESS - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) JEM Chief Negotiator Tougod stated that although he is in regular contact with representatives from UNAMID's Joint Mediation Support Team (JMST),he has little faith in their work. "We feel that the JMST support team is not united, has little cohesion, no momentum, and will not be able to make a breakthrough," stated Tougod. Tougod further criticized the JMST, stating that it is disconnected from the "reality on the ground." Tougod admitted that people view JEM's willingness to negotiate with the government as a sign of desperation or weakness; however, he stated that this willingness was due to weakness of the JMST, not JEM. He said that Presidential Advisor Nafie Ali-Nafie's rejection of JEM's initiative has completely shut down all channels of communication between the GoS and JEM. "We only communicate through the media," stated Tougod. "JEM IS STRONGER THAN EVER" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (SBU) Tougod stated that there is no other strong or capable movement like JEM and reiterated the JEM claim that the government's "massacre" in Abu Sirouj, Sileah, and Sirba has helped JEM's recruitment efforts. "After the government's operation, we have re-organized, and are now in a stronger military position," said Tougod. This seems to imply that reports of Chadian resupply of JEM are not far off the mark. REJECTION OF THE CENSUS - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (SBU) According to Tougod, it is "not appropriate" to conduct a census when Sudanese refugees have fled to Chad and thousands of Darfuri IDPs are located all over Sudan. He stated that JEM's official position is to boycott the census as "it will only undermine the future of Darfur, bring biased results, and will not at all help our people." Emboff stated that the United States disagrees with JEM's position, adding that the census and the election (though not directly linked) are both important to Sudan's transformation into a fully democratic state. Emboff urged JEM to encourage its adherents to support and participate in the census. JEM ON CHADIAN OPPOSITION - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (SBU) Tougod said he has actually seen an increase in GoS troop and Chadian opposition movements since President Deby and Bashir signed a peace agreement in Dakar on March 13. He confirmed that Timane Erdimi, head of the Rally of Forces for Change (RFC),will soon join the Chadian Government and that this "will remove the Zaghawa opposition element of the Chadian rebels." He stated that other rebels, such as former Chadian Defense Minister Mahamat Nouri of the United Force for Democracy and Development, have continued to work with the Government of Sudan in overthrowing the Chadian government. "WE WANT CONTACT WITH THE U.S." - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (SBU) Tougod reiterated previous JEM calls for a meeting with senior U.S. officials, including Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Jendayi Frazer, and the U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan, Richard Williamson. Emboff stated that a high-level visit with these figures is very unlikely at this time, but that he would convey the message to Washington. COMMENT - - - - ¶7. (SBU) Tougod appeared annoyed that emboff both disagreed with JEM's position on the census and expressed doubt that senior U.S. policy makers would now entertain a JEM visit. This irritation only further affirms the weight that JEM attaches to U.S. approval for its actions, especially as it jockeys for position among many rebel groups and holds grandiose dreams of one day ruling Sudan. More importantly, it also signals that while JEM is likely to continue provocative attacks in Darfur (that will lead to brutal SAF responses falling chiefly on innocent civilians),the movement is KHARTOUM 00000452 002 OF 002 receptive to further U.S. suggestions, should the U.S. seek to exert more influence over the destructive actions of rebel movements such as JEM. We will continue to urge participation in census and elections, and will also push JEM toward negotiations and participation in JMST events (assuming JMST ever gets its act together, which is a big assumption). ¶8. (SBU) The Justice and Equality Movement's (JEM) Chief Negotiator, Ahmed Tougod, is available for re-contact at: +8821637153019. FERNANDEZ