GOSS REGIONAL COOPERATION MINISTER ON IRAN AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000430 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, S/E WILLIAMSON, NEA/IR NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINS EAID MARR IR MOPS SU SUBJECT: GOSS REGIONAL COOPERATION MINISTER ON IRAN AND NCP/SPLM RELATIONS REF: A. KHARTOUM 288 ¶B. KHARTOUM 283 Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Government of Southern Sudan Minister for Regional Cooperation discussed the SPLM,s concern over a recently revealed &defense pact8 between Tehran and Khartoum, continued SAF manipulation of the Misseriya Arabs, and outward attempts by the SAF to push a military solution to the 1956 North/South border. He noted GOSS willingness to move forward with the national census if Khartoum agrees to an annexure on the questionnaires focused on questions pertaining to religion and ethnicity. He stated the GOSS will unilaterally extend diplomatic privileges to Danish diplomats should Khartoum move forward with plans to PNG Khartoum-based officials following the Danish media's re-publication of the Prophet Mohammed cartoons. END SUMMARY. -------------- KHARTOUM-TEHRAN &DEFENSE PACT8 -------------- ¶2. (C) Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) Minister for Regional Cooperation Barnaba Marial Benjamin met with Consul General and ConGen PolOff on March 21. Foremost on the Government of Southern Sudan's mind was a recently agreed upon &Memorandum of Understanding8 on defense issues between Khartoum and Tehran. What issues, and &in defense of what from whom8 has become the major agenda item of First Vice President Salva Kiir Mayardit,s travel, in his capacity as GOSS President, to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on March ¶22. The SPLM (and according to Benjamin, select NCP ministers as well) were &blindsided8 by the agreement between Sudan and Iran. The Iranian Defense Minister reportedly told Foreign Minister Deng Alor last week that the agreement was structured during the Iranian President's 2007 visit to Khartoum. ¶3. (C) Benjamin told ConGen staff that the Iranian Defense Minister sought the meeting with Alor erroneously believing he had been briefed on the program. Kiir, &deeply concerned8 by the revelation, immediately sought a meeting with the UAE President on the matter. Benjamin said that Abu Dhabi is similarly worried by the development and its patience with Khartoum is waning. During the UAE President,s visit to Sudan in 2007, when he planned to visit Juba, Khartoum flatly lied to UAE officials by telling them no fuel would be available in Juba to refuel the Emirati plane, and that GOSS meetings had to be canceled for that reason. According to Benjamin, UAE ire over this discovery led to Kiir,s invitation to the UAE with full honors afforded to him in his capacity as President of the GoSS. -------------- TENSIONS ALONG THE 1956 BORDER -------------- ¶4. (C) The SPLM has grown increasingly frustrated by what Benjamin termed "one-sided and inaccurate" media coverage in Khartoum of the skirmishes along the 1956 border, and the Minister acknowledged that &the Misseriya problem8 was being discussed at the SPLM,s Interim National Council. &We have engaged our partners at the Joint Defense Board and at the political-level, but we are now looking to the media. We are prepared to go forward and embarrass the SAF via the press.8 Commenting on SPLA reaction to repeat SAF-backed Misseriya raids, the Minister noted &we will not be aggressive, but we will stand our ground.8 The minister further reviewed SPLM steps to engage the Misseriya at a local level to mitigate future violence. &We have no problem with the Misseriya coming South, insofar as they move as civilians, and without weapons,8 he stressed. Juba has pressed local government officials to engage with neighboring Misseriya clans, and Benjamin noted the dialogue is apt to be more fruitful &given recent Misseriya defeats and the group's continued abandonment by the NCP. They have suffered heavy losses, even among their senior leadership, in the fighting. They will not permit themselves to be used much longer.8 ¶5. (C) &Many of the Misseriya involved in the recent border skirmishes are not Misseriya but members of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF),8 and the Minister claimed that &we have taken SAF ID cards off of the dead.8 Benjamin stated captured SAF told the SPLA that GNU State Minister for Humanitarian Affairs Ali Haroun (an indicted ICC suspect) has been supplying ammunition to the Misseriya. He said SPLM members based in Khartoum also made discreet inquiries at the KHARTOUM 00000430 002 OF 003 Omdurman police hospital, where Benjamin (and press reports) noted wounded Misseriya had been taken. He said the SAF is reportedly covering the payment of their medical bills. He noted that the recent shift in attacks from Northern Bahr El Ghazal state to the border areas and interior of Unity State was troubling, and viewed by the GOSS to be SAF attempts to resolve differences over the 1956 North/South border through military means in advance of a broader political dialogue on border demarcation between Khartoum and Juba. ¶6. (C) &Khartoum does not want border demarcation to move forward in the areas where they lose land,8 he said, &and they are occupying certain positions for de facto demarcation.8 Despite a direct demand from the SPLA to remove his forces from the South, the SAF Commander at the convergence of the Western Bahr el Ghazal (WBEG),South Darfur, and Central African Republic border has refused to move his forces, citing the continued insecurity in South Darfur. (NOTE: SAF forces have held four counties in WBEG since July 2007. END NOTE). Benjamin noted that SAF build-ups were also being monitored in the southern portion of Blue Nile state (bordering Upper Nile) and near Abyei. -------------- CENSUS -------------- ¶7. (C) The Regional Cooperation Minister admitted that the GOSS had made &certain mistakes8 which fueled controversy over the census questionnaires and had led some to question whether the census should still be held. Citing funding delays, the early onset of the rainy season, and incomplete refugee and IDP returns, the Minister claimed that &the census will not count people properly in the South.8 Benjamin alleged that the NCP,s emphasis on keeping self-identification questions (are you a Northerner/Southerner?) without corresponding questions on ethnicity and religion were part of Khartoum's planned manipulation of the 2011 Referendum. Khartoum can use census data to justify large quantities of referendum ballots in 2011, which Benjamin alleged would lead to &pro-unity8 ballot stuffing in the North. (COMMENT: Benjamin's assertion rests on the assumption that most Southern IDPs displaced by the civil war will have moved back to the South by 2011. We feel the comment reflects Benjamin's personal views on secession rather than a GOSS position. END COMMENT.) ¶8. (C) The SPLM plans to re-constitute its &Crisis Management Team8 from the party's 2007 ministerial GNU boycott to develop an eleventh-hour strategy to press for inclusion of questions on ethnicity and religion on the census forms. Their proposed mechanism: an annexure form. According to Benjamin, the NCP has already informally told the SPLM that such an annexure would be acceptable in the South, but could not be used elsewhere in the country. &We will not stand for a census without it,8 the Minister said, further noting that the SPLM has rejected the South-only approach, citing the necessity of such information elsewhere in areas like Darfur and other marginalized areas. ¶9. (C) Should the NCP reject the SPLM,s demands, Benjamin claimed that one scenario under development by the SPLM includes the census, postponement by a full calendar year. Benjamin further explained that this would require the elections to be shifted from 2009 to January 2010 in order for the 2011 Referendum to be held in January of that year. ConGen Poloff asked why the SPLM is focused on linking the census so tightly with elections, given that there is not a direct link in the CPA between a division of National Assembly seats and the population census. Benjamin maintained that in the absence of border demarcation, a credible census becomes the sole avenue open to the parties to conduct the referendum. -------------- GOSS-UNILATERAL RECOGNITION OF DENMARK -------------- ¶10. (C) Minister Benjamin reviewed planned SPLM action in the wake of President Bashir,s announcement threatening to expel Danish diplomats. The GNU did not consult the SPLM prior to making its decision, which Benjamin claimed was calculated, given the amount of Danish aid coming to the South. If the SPLM is unable to deter Khartoum from its current course of action, the Government of Southern Sudan stands ready, he said, to extend unilateral diplomatic recognition to Denmark and invite their presence in Juba. The Regional Cooperation Minister maintained this was fully permissible under the &one country, two systems of government8 established by the KHARTOUM 00000430 003 OF 003 Comprehensive Peace Agreement. ¶11. (C) Comment: Very little information is available about the defense cooperation agreement between Khartoum and Tehran, other than what was announced publicly during the recent visit of the Iranian Minister of Defense. At the time, the GOS said the agreement included provisions on scientific cooperation, education, and training. We have not obtained any information to indicate that the agreement included weapons sales, and the Sudanese are able to meet most if not all of their needs through weapons purchases from the Chinese. However, as with the official Sudanese furor over the Danish cartoons, the Khartoum regime takes every opportunity to keep the West and its internal adversaries off-balance and the defense pact served this purpose while also creating concern among the NCP's rivals in South Sudan. ¶12. (C) The endless debate and shifting of positions regarding census forms shows the extent to which the GOSS is nervous that the census will weaken its position vis-a-vis the North. The SPLM will likely continue to strategize and make last-minute proposals - which may require that the census be delayed - right up to the current date of the census next month. FERNANDEZ