LRA PEACE TALKS TO RESUME IN JUBA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000429 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER AND TIM SHORTLEY, AF/E E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU UG SU SUBJECT: LRA PEACE TALKS TO RESUME IN JUBA REF: KAMPALA 424 Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Peace talks between the LRA and Government of Uganda will resume in Juba on Monday, March 24. Lead negotiator Riek Machar expects a final implementation agreement to be initialed no later than March 25, and he hopes for a final signing ceremony in Juba on Friday, April ¶4. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) At Consul General Christopher Datta,s request, Riek Machar, Vice President of the Government of the Southern Sudan and lead negotiator on the LRA peace talks, met with the Congen on Saturday, March 22, to discuss the current status of LRA negotiations. ¶3. (SBU) Machar indicated that after initial hesitation, the Government of Uganda (GoU) delegation has agreed to meet with LRA negotiators in Juba on Monday, March 24, to try to finalize a peace agreement. Machar expects that a final implementation agreement can be hammered out no later than Tuesday, setting the stage for a final signing ceremony. Machar set a target date of Friday, April 4 for the signing ceremony to take place in Juba. ¶4. (SBU) Machar told Congen that the LRA negotiating team had traveled to the Hague to talk with representatives of the ICC, and that the LRA was pleased with the results of the talks. The Congen mentioned that he,d heard rumors that the LRA had asked the ICC to hand down indictments for war crimes against generals in the Ugandan armed forces. Machar thought that they had indeed requested such indictments, but thought it highly unlikely that the ICC would issue them. Machar was also told by the LRA delegation that they expected the ICC to make a final determination of the status of the indictments against the LRA before March 28, although he had no idea why they expected that and he personally thought it unlikely. ¶5. (SBU) On Wednesday, March 26 Machar expects a delegation composed of 60 to 70 Northern Ugandan political and community leaders to arrive in Juba for talks with the LRA negotiating team. He was unable to provide the Congen with a list of delegates, however, and during the course of their conversation Machar,s staff assistant joined the meeting and indicated that the exact composition of the group was still in flux. ¶6. (SBU) On March 27, 30 members of that delegation will be flown to Rikwangba to meet with Kony. The purpose of the meetings with Northern Ugandan leaders is to build Kony,s confidence in the peace process. This technique had worked before with Kony, stated Machar, and he was optimistic it would have a beneficial effect again. The delegation will return from Rikwangba on Friday. ¶7. (SBU) Congen asked Machar if he was sure that Kony was even in Rikwangba. Rumar had it that he is now in CAR. Machar acknowledged that it was indeed possible that Kony had moved into CAR. In fact, he had some intelligence reports that LRA elements were on the move again out of CAR and in the direction of Rikwangba, and Kony might well be with them. If that was so, he could easily be back in Rikwangba by Thursday of next week. ¶8. (SBU) Congen then told Machar that the State Department has asked the GoSS to be prepared to take military action in coordination with its neighbors against the LRA in the event that Kony refuses a peace agreement and returns to fighting. Machar smiled and replied, &Let me be a peacemaker now.8 He acknowledged, however, that such would be the outcome of failed talks, and that Kony is aware of that fact. (Comment: In talks with the Minister of Regional Affairs for the GoSS about this issue, the Congen was reassured by the minister that the GoSS would, in fact, join with its neighbors to place military pressure on the LRA should the peace talks fail. End Comment) ¶9. (SBU) Machar expressed confidence that Kony would sign the deal. Should he not, Machar thought it a certainty that the LRA would splinter into several groups, most of whom would want to take advantage of the deal, leaving Kony highly vulnerable. The terms of the deal are generous to the LRA, on the whole, and he thought life for the LRA during the long peace negotiations had made them &soft.8 They have been fed, and there has been little fighting. Machar thought they had grown used to this, and even Kony was discovering that KHARTOUM 00000429 002 OF 002 life is better with peace, and Machar thought he had little stomach left for fighting in the bush again. Besides, the peace deal really gave Kony most of what he wanted, including concessions from the GoU he could never win through military confrontation. ¶10. (SBU) Congen Datta provided Machar with copies of the March 21 State Department press release on the LRA. Machar was very pleased with it, commenting that it was a helpful statement from the US that he could use to great advantage with the LRA negotiating team. ¶11. (C) Comment: Given reports that Kony has no intention of reaching an agreement, the negotiations in Juba appear to proceed in a parallel reality. However, the process keeps his fighters engaged in peace rather than war and could ensure some defections from frustrated LRA fighters if Kony doesn't follow through with his half-hearted participation in the peace process. The wily Riek Machar cannot be trusted, and we hope he is passing along sound information and not just stringing us along. FERNANDEZ