BASHIR TELLS ADVISOR THAT THE DAKAR AGREEMENT IS

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 000425 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, AF/C NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU SUBJECT: BASHIR TELLS ADVISOR THAT THE DAKAR AGREEMENT IS OFF REF: A. NDJAMENA 397 ¶B. STATE 26477 ¶C. KHARTOUM 397 ¶D. KHARTOUM 285 Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Senior Presidential Advisor Minni Minawi told POLOFF March 22 that President Bashir had rejected Minawi's proposal to travel to Ndjamena in order to encourage negotiations between President Deby and Chadian rebel Timane Erdimi. Minawi had hoped that his own direct appeals to President Deby would encourage negotiation between Deby and Erdimi (who are related and come from the same Zaghawa tribe) but reportedly President Bashir said he did not want any senior GOS officials traveling to Ndjamena (both Presidential Advisor Ismail and First Vice President Salva Kiir had separately told Charge Fernandez that they were also going to ask Bashir for permission to go to Chad for talks). According to Minawi, President Bashir said that the Dakar peace agreement is off due to Deby's alleged new provision of 250 vehicles to the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) Darfur rebel group since the signing of the Dakar peace accord. Minawi also claimed Bashir said he has no control of Chadian rebels such as Mahamat Nouri "who has already entered Chad." ¶2. (C) In a meeting with CDA Fernandez March 23, MFA Undersecretary (and high-ranking NCP member with responsibility for the Darfur portfolio) Mutrif Siddiq was not quite as frank, noting that the agreement really needs a monitoring mechanism to be enforced. "The agreement is too loose and the border is too long" to be properly enforced, said Siddiq. He claimed that last week JEM staged a "big attack" on SAF positions between the Chad border and Jebel Moon using more than thirty vehicles. Several soldiers, including a SAF colonel, were killed in the attack. He said the bulk of JEM forces are now in Agre and Abeche inside the Chad border planning further crossborder attacks on SAF positions. Siddiq claimed that Sudan had registered a formal complaint at the AU and the UN following the JEM attack, to document the JEM violation of the peace agreement. CDA urged Siddiq to adhere to the agreement and agreed that a monitoring mechanism is essential to prevent cheating by both countries and their proxies. ¶3. (C) Comment: Given Deby's weakened state, it is hard to imagine that he would be in a position to provide 250 vehicles to JEM within the last week, although it is very probable that Deby (and Bashir with the Chadian rebels) are reinforcing their allies in each other's country with whatever they have in stock. Sudan, as the wealthier, more organized state has much more to offer to the rebels it patronizes. More likely, President Bashir is looking for excuses to justify his continuing support of the Chadian rebels - and the Sudanese complaint to the AU and UN with regard to what sounds like a relatively small-scale JEM attack is likely a "documented" excuse for Sudan to justify continued support to the Chadian rebels. The Chad offensive, though not yet achieving its primary goal of toppling Deby, has nonetheless served Khartoum's interests in weakening JEM and allowing the SAF to retake, in a brutal campaign that has caused "massive collateral damage", former JEM positions in West Darfur. FERNANDEZ