HASSAN AL-TURABI ON NCP DYNAMICS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000423 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF S/E WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL SU SUBJECT: HASSAN AL-TURABI ON NCP DYNAMICS REFTELS: A) KHARTOUM 410 B) 07 KHARTOUM 2007 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: According to PCP leader Hassan al-Turabi, the ruling National Congress Party lacks any base of popular support and is under stress as it tries to deal with multiple challenges (most of its own creation). Al-Turabi said that President al-Bashir's indecisive leadership compounds these problems. The NCP is both duplicitous and afraid that a critical mass of problems in Darfur, in South Sudan, and economic pressures and corruption coupled with the possibility of greater hostility from the United States could rattle its hold on power. End summary. ¶2. (U) On March 17, CDA Fernandez called on Dr. Hassan Abdalla al-Turabi, founder and leader of Peoples' Congress Party (PCP). Dr. Al-Turabi was a founding member of the National Islamic Front (NIF), which led to the current regime, until he was forced out in the late 1990s when he tried to consolidate his own power in the regime. Many of his former proteges are now senior leaders in the NCP regime. When Turabi left the party he formed his own rival PCP party, which may not have much support, but is viewed with great suspicion by a nervous NCP regime. The Unloved NCP -------------- ¶3. (SBU) CDA Fernandez remarked that while the National Congress Party (NCP) appears to be going into the 2009 national elections wielding a preponderance of power based on its long-established control of the government in Khartoum, with the resulting access to patronage and control of the security forces, the NCP lately appears weak, indecisive and not in full control of events. Recently, it has faced strong popular discontent stemming from increases in the prices of bread, sugar, and electricity. The NCP often seems to resemble the biblical "giant, with feet of clay." ¶4. (SBU) Dr. al-Turabi agreed, saying that the NCP is fundamentally weak. It has no base of popular support. "No one loves the NCP," he remarked. While people continue to join the NCP, it is for cynical motives of advancing their own personal interests or ambitions, not for idealistic or ideological reasons. ¶5. (SBU) Turabi said that all Northern opposition parties, including his own (which is the most anti-NCP party in the North),do talk and negotiate with the NCP, because there are no better options. The PCP is trying to get 28 activists released from prison, "perhaps in the next few days," and to push for - at the very least - greater press freedom. He noted that targeted censorship on anything related to Chad (and Sudan's support for Chadian rebels) is "particularly fierce right now." He also laughed about the regime's recent hysterical reaction to the Charge's bland comment on democratic elections in Sudan. He urged CDA to be even more aggressive, "they are unlikely to expel you despite their threats." Under Stress -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Turabi continued that the NCP is being stressed by multiple, simultaneous challenges and is frightened about a potentially dangerous future. First, it is facing the first competitive elections in its history. Second, it is dealing with multiple problems within the Government of National Unity. After sidelining the SPLM and taking it for granted since the GNU was created, the NCP was shaken by the SPLM's walkout from the Council of Ministers in October. The NCP is worried that this could happen again. Third, it is faced with the ongoing conflict in Darfur and the international pressures that has created. "Darfur and the South have not worked out as they planned," he noted. Al-Bashir is also made nervous by events such as in Pakistan, where Musharraf is ceding power, because he sees himself as a similar figure. Finally, the regime recently has had to contend with popular discontent stemming from rising prices, despite having the richest budget in Sudanese history as a result of oil revenues. Real power but Indecisive Leadership -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Turabi remarked that the NCP's problems are compounded by weak leadership. President al-Bashir has real power but is indecisive and his decisions reflect the views of the last person he talked to, rather than any ordered analysis of the problem. The competing NCP power centers, although appearing powerful, are thus reduced to acting as errand boys carrying out instructions over whose drafting they had no real say. Senior officials prepare documents and meticulously set the stage for policies only to have their careful plans sidelined by a whisper in the President's ear at the last moment. "This is the military mentality at work, which we've never been able to get away from." ¶8. (SBU) Comment: It is interesting that Turabi's remarks do not fully track with comments made by his own son (Ref A) last week. KHARTOUM 00000423 002 OF 002 While the bitter Hassan al-Turabi sees President Bashir as indecisive (many observers have told us the same thing),his own son and many other observers see President Bashir as having greatly consolidated his power over the last several years with the NCP operating as a well-oil machine. Perhaps the difference between the two generations in analyzing the regime is less deep than it appears: both see a regime which is fragile but much more powerful than any rival in the country, which is somewhat disciplined but less so than it appears, which is both ruthless but insecure. However both of them are correct in identifying the many external pressures with which the regime is confronted and which could actually worsen over the next two years. The regime is constantly in a state of crisis-control as it seeks to manage its various relationships (both internal and external) and retain control of Sudan and its booming economic interests. FERNANDEZ