DONORS MEET WITH SRSG QAZI IN PREPARATION FOR ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000420 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG, A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: DONORS MEET WITH SRSG QAZI IN PREPARATION FOR ELECTIONS REF: (A) 07 KHARTOUM 2041 (B) 07 KHARTOUM 2011 (C) 07 KHARTOUM 1971 (D) 07 KHARTOUM 1834 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In response to donor's concerns about UN slowness on the Sudanese 2009 elections, SRSG Ashraf Qazi and the Electoral Donors met Tuesday, March 18, to share dates, assumptions and concerns. SRSG Qazi recognized that, as UNMIS works to build Sudan's electoral capacities, key legislative agreements are needed from Sudan to begin preparations. Electoral donors expressed frustration with the slow pace of preparations and requested more frequent high-level joint UNMIS-donor meetings. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) With next month's national census rapidly approaching, and the July 2009 (actual date is not set) election right around the corner in terms of the need to prepare adequately, Special Representative to the Secretary General Ashraf Qazi welcomed the Electoral Donors Group on March 18 at UNMIS headquarters. Beginning by agreeing to more frequent meetings, SRSG Qazi noted that Sudan is entering an important phase in its history, making the work of the donors essential to its democratic transition. With regard to the census, Qazi noted that roadblocks have occurred with the Government of Sudan (GOS) objecting to UNMIS participation. Moreover the Government of South Sudan (GOSS) still requires final GNU funding for the census to be released, and there are reports from Darfur of massive Darfuri non-participation in the census (septels). ¶3. (SBU) Despite problems with the census, UNMIS and the United Nations are pressing ahead and assuming that the elections will take place in July 2009 although both parties could agree to a postponement until late 2009 to avoid the rainy season. SRSG Qazi distributed a draft planning list of dates for the July 2009 elections (see below). [Note: Both the census and the elections are milestones in the CPA that must take place before July 9, 2009. The census is important for the determination of wealth and power-sharing at a national level, but is a separate and distinct process from the elections, and may be linked or de-linked from the election depending on how the much-debated but not yet approved Electoral Law is written. Many Sudanese mistakenly believe that electoral participation is dependent on the census. End note.] ¶4. (SBU) Qazi said that while the census may not result in a 100 percent accounting of the population of Sudan, once it has been conducted election planning can move forward. The National Electoral Law should be submitted to Parliament for ratification in early April, as the Government of National Unity (GNU) has tentatively reached an agreement on proportional versus geographical representation. Following this, the National Elections Commission (NEC) should be formed by June 15, enabling the GOS to formally make a request for UN support, as UNMIS is ready to assist with voter registration starting early 2009. The upcoming Sudan Consortium will provide a forum for donors to continue to press the Government of National Unity (GNU) on the importance of the Electoral Law, the NEC and UNMIS support. [Note: The SPLM-NCP agreement on percentages of the mixed electoral system is a big step in moving the draft electoral law forward. As of this writing, however, the parties were still in disagreement over whether proportional voting will be based on state-level or national lists. It is unclear whether the National Constitutional Review Commission (NCRC) will push the law forward to Parliament if the parties continue to disagree on this one point. End note.] ¶5. (SBU) In preparation for the elections, Qazi said UNMIS is slowly building its own capacity on the policy side, working closely with the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) to complete a set of recommendations for an elections policy meeting on March 25. Sensitive to the Sudanese perception that the donor community is aloof from the policies that guide the electoral process, UNMIS is pushing for the creation of the NEC to act as the interlocutor with the voting public. Qazi noted that UNMIS must convince the GNU of the need for assistance. The Carter Center, invited to act as elections observers by the GNU but unable to gain approval to observe the census independently, provides a preview of the obstacles the donors may face during elections. (Note: After concluding that they would not be afforded operational independence by the GNU, the Carter Center refused to participate in the upcoming census, but will keep a limited presence in country during the census and through the electoral preparation period in order to assess the run-up to the 2009 elections. End note.) ¶6. (SBU) Qazi opened the floor to suggestions from the donor community on supporting the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA),to prevent conflict and encourage democratic transformation. Charge Fernandez said it is critical that elections take place outside of the rainy season and observed that preparations are moving much too KHARTOUM 00000420 002 OF 003 slowly. He noted that independent of the actual elections timetable, Western countries needed to intensify their non-partisan support for capacity building and training among Sudan's political parties. Qazi acknowledged the tight timetable, and noted that if the elections do not occur by July 2009, there was a possibility that they could be moved to fall 2009 as allowed by the CPA. Changing the date does have downsides, Qazi noted. (Note: Qaai was not specific but presumably was referring to possible civil unrest or heightened tensions between the SPLM and NCP due to delays. End note.) Regarding the pace of preparations, Qazi said UNMIS is sending materials to the South on elections, but much depends on the establishment of the NEC. ¶7. (SBU) UNMIS Chief Electoral Officer Ray Kennedy spoke on the subject of the elections preparations. UNDP is currently working on capacity building of political parties, following a model used by UNDP Mexico to strengthen the capacity of domestic observers. UNMIS Public Affairs recently ran a two-day gender event for women, who had the opportunity to role-play as candidates, observers and voters. CDA Fernandez requested more preparation on bilateral, multilateral, and institutional fronts in order to insulate donor preparations from the ballot box itself. The donors pressed for a strategic action plan and asked about the capacity of UNMIS to move immediately. In response, UNDP produced the draft of planning dates for the July 2009 elections (see below). UNMIS is recruiting staff to be at full operational capacity by late this summer but still only has two fulltime staff planning for elections (Kennedy and an assistant). ¶8. (SBU) The UK Ambassador concurred with the sense of urgency, thanking those assembled for the high priority they have placed on this and upcoming meetings. Concerned that the Electoral Law has not yet been finalized, and suggesting that "minute disagreements in the details do not justify its inconclusive status," she recognized that the GNU will likely pick and choose how it engages with UNMIS and UNDP, and play one off the other. Qazi said that as the UN builds its core election team to be ready in June, it is working to minimize the capacity of the regime to play one side of the UN against the other. He said the UN's role is to prepare for a request for assistance, but it is already sending its electoral assistance team to Sudan in April, before an official request from the NEC. Thus, the draft of key planning dates for the July 2009 elections (below) should be considered an operational document. ¶9. (SBU) The EU Ambassador noted the three critical events for donor planning that have not yet occurred: the enactment of the Electoral Law; the establishment of the NEC; and the hypothetical NEC request for UN electoral support. From that date, he noted, there are only six months to start voter registration. He suggested that, working closely with the Carter Center, the monitoring commission should be headed by a member of the European Parliament. The Swedish Charge recommended shifting preparations toward direct engagement with the population, as the National Congress Party (NCP) does not want direct engagement with donors. Qazi emphasized that although the South is in greater need of capacity building, and the GNU has yet to name an interlocutor, the international community needs to work with both the GOS and the GOSS on the monitoring preparation. ¶10. (SBU) Echoing CDA Fernandez, the Dutch Ambassador said the donor community needs to identify democratic transformation activities not directly tied to the electoral process. The EU ambassador stressed the importance of preparatory work to positively affect perceptions. The Canadian Charge stated his concern about the conditions for effectively monitoring the elections - because the government can interfere in the monitoring process, so it is therefore critical to have a credible structure for monitoring. Qazi noted the importance of involving African institutions in the monitoring process as well. Qazi closed the meeting stating it was not UNMIS's intention to sit and wait, but rather that preparations for the elections require "sensitivity" in order to strike the correct balance among all involved. (Comment: This is a familiar refrain for SRSG Qazi, who does not believe that pressure is an effective tool to promote the international community's agenda with the GNU. End comment.) ¶11. (SBU) Key Illustrative Planning Dates for July 2009 Elections (Draft, UNMIS) April 15 Electoral Law Enacted June 15 National Elections Commission seated July 1 NEC Request for UN electoral support July 31 NEC completes policy decisions on registration August 31 Registration procedures approved September 6 Registration materials finalized September 15 Order registration education campaign materials September 30 Registration sites identified KHARTOUM 00000420 003 OF 003 September 30 Registration kits ordered October 31 Electoral boundaries final November Distribution of registration education campaign materials November Registration staff recruited November 30 Registration kits received in Khartoum December Registration kits distributed December 15 Registration staff training completed 4th Quarter NEC offices established at state level January 2009 VOTER REGISTRATION February 28 Data entry completed Early March List printing/distribution, training for exhibition Mid March Order electoral materials Late march Exhibition of Preliminary Voters List April Nominations April/May Ballot design and procurement May/June Distribution of electoral materials (non-sensitive) May/June Campaign period Late June Distribution of election materials (sensitive) Early July ELECTIONS (first round) Mid July Results announced July 31 Results final Late September ELECTIONS (second round) October 31 Results final ¶11. (SBU) COMMENT: The tentative electoral timeline put forward by UNMIS is ambitious and may be completely unrealistic given that the Electoral Law has not yet been finalized and there is no NEC in place, although it is doable if both of these items are wrapped up within the next two months. Still, it is a useful summary of the daunting electoral calendar ahead of us. The international community has been frustrated with UNMIS' lack of dialogue and coordination with the GoS on electoral preparation, especially given UNMIS' mandate to assist the GoS in carrying out the 2009 elections. Without an NEC in place, donors lack a GoS partner, and see SRSG Qazi as best placed to push electoral preparations forward with high-level GoS officials. However, to date he does not seem to be pushing this agenda with as much vigor as required. To this end, donors will continue to push UNMIS and SRSG Qazi to fulfill UNMIS' electoral assistance mandate with at least monthly meetings. FERNANDEZ