ABEL ALIER SUSPICIOUS OF NORTHERN POLITICIANS, BUT ALSO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000368 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG, A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: ABEL ALIER SUSPICIOUS OF NORTHERN POLITICIANS, BUT ALSO URGES GREATER SPLM PARTICPATION ON COMMISSIONS ¶1. (SBU) Too many agreements have been dishonored, and northern political parties are eager to open the CPA and block agreement on Abyei, according to former Vice President and current co-chairman of the National Constitutional Review Commission Abel Alier. CDA Fernandez met with the elder statesman of Sudanese politics and Dinka leader March 9 at Alier's home in Khartoum. ¶2. (SBU) Alier expressed frustration with the lack of agreement on Abyei, noting that the solution for Abyei is obvious if northern politicians decide to resolve the issue. Alier said the outlines of the Ngok Dinka kingdom in 1905 are well known based on the transfer of this territory to Southern Kordofan by the British at that time. Even today Dinka names are used for towns in the area. As late as 1977 local councils and senior Misseriya officials in Southern Kordofan developed maps for use by local administrators in Abyei, which he said were derived directly from historic outlines of Abyei. Alier related the story (which we have heard from senior leaders in the SPLM such as GOSS Minister of the Presidency Luka Biong Deng) of the discovery of several of these maps from 1977, following the release of the ABC report, which he claimed had been intentionally hidden from the Abyei Boundary Commission (ABC). (Reportedly the maps were discovered behind a file cabinet in a local administrator's office in El Obeid.) ¶3. (SBU) According to Alier, the maps prove the northern boundary of Abyei to be even further north than the findings of the ABC report. Alier claimed GOSS Vice President Riek Machar brought this to the attention of GNU Vice President Ali Osman Taha, but that the NCP still refuses to allow a negotiating team unfettered access to the area to compare the newly discovered maps with the actual towns. Alier also placed the Abyei dispute in the context of northern party politics, and implied that the NCP is using its ongoing talks with the Umma party to delay resolution on the issue. "Al-Sadiq Al-Mahdi doesn't accept the CPA - and Abyei has most of the oil - so the people in power whisper to the people in Abyei to prevent an agreement." (Comment: In addition to expressing a common misconception that Abyei has most of the oil, Alier seemed to imply there may be a northern plot between the NCP and Umma parties to deny the South - and the Dinka - access to all the oil they are entitled to in Abyei. End Comment.) ¶4. (SBU) Alier said there are Misseriya who know it's in their interests to keep the peace, but that the NCP are provoking them and stirring up emotions on the issues of land and oil. Ominously, Alier pointed out several times that "naked force is no longer the monopoly of any particular group," implying that the SPLA is now capable of military solutions as well. Alier was somewhat optimistic about the deployment of the Joint Inspection Units (JIUs) along the North-South border. "It looks like the two parties have chosen to be level-headed on this issue." However, Alier alleged that the government had embarked on a campaign to "re-draw the 1956 borders" and had "carved" areas of northern Unity State and Upper Nile into northern Sudan. Alier lamented the perennial weakness of the South, the lack of qualified individuals to participate on the AEC and other CPA-mandated commissions which has led to South Sudan being tricked by better prepared Northerners. ¶5. (SBU) Asked how the U.S. can improve its relations with Sudan, Alier urged the U.S. to provide "credible advice about the situation in Darfur" and to "be concerned about elections." Alier noted that the elections law has been pending for over a year and said that all parties must accept free and fair elections as principles. "We want a law that passes with minimum marks so that if someone plays with the elections, what is the punishment?" Alier said the debate regarding direct vs. proportional percentages continued, despite the fact that over a year ago all parties including the SPLM had accepted the 60/40 split. "We hope the SPLM will come along," said Alier. He lamented that when the SPLM does not have something to offer they "adopt a policy of absenteeism" on the commissions. Alier urged that the SPLM engage more actively in the AEC commissions, but acknowledged that a "tough group of qualities" is required to be successful on the commissions. He said the SPLA needs to find savvy educated negotiators who are tacticians as well as subject matter experts. ¶6. (SBU) Despite the many challenges facing Sudan, Alier expressed optimism about the future of the CPA and peace in Sudan - "otherwise I would not be involved." CDA Fernandez pointed out that many of the problems at the periphery (Darfur and the South) are caused by or related to problems at the center - weaknesses in leadership and administration of the country at the political level in Khartoum. Alier agreed fully and urged that the U.S. remain engaged in addressing the problems and ensuring especially that there are free and fair elections. KHARTOUM 00000368 002 OF 002 ¶7. (SBU) Comment: Alier's main concern is that northern politicians are conspiring to take Abyei and its oil away from the South (and the Dinka in particular). He is undoubtedly correct, as he has been around long enough to know how politics works in Sudan - with Southerners constantly exposed to northern manipulation. Alier's comment that if the North wanted to solve the Abyei issue they could do so immediately rings especially true - and we should remind the GNU of this in our interactions with them. Proving his balanced views (and likely due to his frustration leading the NCRC) Alier also highlighted a significant problem facing the SPLM - the lack of depth in qualified and trusted interlocutors to speak and negotiate on behalf of the party at the AEC and other commissions. Part of this is due to capacity (a small number of capable leaders in the party stretched very thin) but also appears to be due to trust and command/control issues within the party. The SPLM will need to continue to develop a second tier of capable envoys and negotiators if it is to grow and develop as a political party. Addressing this gap would help the SPLM deal more effectively with the NCP, which seeks to tie the SPLM (and the international community) in knots by focusing constantly on process and legalistic issues - rather than forthrightly on implementing the CPA, including acceptance of the ABC report. FERNANDEZ