AS UN REACHES JEBEL MOON, SPLINTER EMERGES WITHIN JEM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000346 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF S/E WILLIAMSON, AND AF/SPG NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS KPKO UN AU SU CD SUBJECT: AS UN REACHES JEBEL MOON, SPLINTER EMERGES WITHIN JEM REFS: A) KHARTOUM 320 KHARTOUM 266 -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) After an earlier dispute between the UN Coordinator for Humanitarian Affairs and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) over access to Jebel Moon, West Darfur, a UN team reached the area for a brief yet inconclusive visit to assess the humanitarian situation. UN sources report that the bulk of JEM is "holed up" in Jebel Moon and that the defection of a breakaway faction of the movement, JEM/National Unity, has cut mainstream JEM off from a JEM formation north of El Geneina, West Darfur. While some in the UN predict that Sudan will take advantage of this fissure and launch a renewed bombing campaign on Jebel Moon, MINURCAT anticipated a ground offensive by Khartoum-backed Chadian rebels into Jebel Moon and Chad "within one week." End summary. -------------- UN Team Reaches Jebel Moon, Briefly -------------- ¶2. (SBU) After an earlier dispute between UN Coordinator for Humanitarian Affairs Ameerah Haq and JEM over access to Jebel Moon, West Darfur, a UN team reached the base of the mountain on March 9, Haq told CDA Fernandez. The UN team remained on the ground for only 40 minutes, according to a senior OCHA official, and a battle between JEM and the Sudanese Government was ensuing five kilometers from the UN's landing. While a JEM representative told the UN team there were no internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the area, the official commented that the UN is aware of 7,000 civilians living on Jebel Moon. The OCHA official suggested that the UN needed a "second effort" to investigate the situation in Jebel Moon before making a conclusive assessment. In a March 3 press conference, Haq criticized JEM for obstructing humanitarian access to Jebel Moon. JEM later denied this accusation, claiming the UN never requested permission to enter the area. -------------- AFTER NEW FISSURE, JEM CORE IN JEBEL MOON -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The UN Department of Safety and Security (UNDSS) in West Darfur reported on March 9 that the bulk of JEM forces remain "holed up" in Jebel Moon. An internal fissure within JEM has emerged in recent days, minimizing the movement's reach. A faction composed of the Massaleit and Eringa tribes broke from the mainstream movement and signed a ceasefire agreement with the Sudanese Government, according to UN sources and a JEM representative in El Fasher. ¶4. (SBU) UNDSS estimated that this faction, JEM/National Unity, consisted of 300 to 400 Eringa fighters from Sirba, Silea, and Abu Sorouj, areas afflicted by an intense Sudanese bombing campaign in February. (Note: The majority of JEM fighters are from the Zaghawa tribe. End note.) Senior UN-AU Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) officials speculate that Khartoum's success in fomenting divisions within JEM has left the movement "split in half." The defection of JEM/National Unity created a buffer between a minor JEM force north of El Geneina and a force of 80 vehicles isolated in Jebel Moon. ¶5. (SBU) UNAMID Sector West confirmed in early March that JEM/National Unity leaders Abdulhaleem Daoud and Mubushan Hajjar Abdallah requested UN mediation with the Sudanese Government. JEM/National Unity articulated five political-military objectives: implementation of an immediate and enforceable ceasefire, equitable development, cessation of human rights abuses, power and resource sharing, and withdrawal of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) from JEM/National Unity-controlled areas. According to Sector West, which cross-checked information with the head of SAF military intelligence in El Geneina, Sudan agreed to all of the conditions--with the exception of SAF withdrawal. -------------- Aerial Bombardment or Ground Offensive? -------------- ¶6. (SBU) One UNDSS officer in El Fasher predicted that the Sudanese airforce will take advantage of JEM's isolation in Jebel Moon to launch a bombing campaign in the coming days. "They're hunkered down, and the Government will want to have a good crack at them," he said. Another UNAMID officer asserted, however, that since a March 7 letter from UNSYG Ban Ki Moon to President Bashir cautioning against further aerial bombardment, Government air strikes have ceased. (Note: There is no independent confirmation of this information. End note.) Positing that a ground offensive is more KHARTOUM 00000346 002 OF 002 likely, the same officer said that he had read a "code cable" from MINURCAT dated March 8 that anticipated a new surge of Khartoum-backed Chadian rebels into Chad and Jebel Moon "within one week." The cable also indicated that these operations would be coordinated with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). -------------- Repercussions of February Bombing -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Haq told CDA Fernandez that 90-percent of the residents of Sirba and Bir Degeeg had returned since the February bombing, as the towns had not been heavily damaged and civilian police from Khartoum are deployed - and local authorities had allowed daily humanitarian access by NGOs and the UN. However, Haq said that Silea remains empty due to destroyed infrastructure and lack of security. Haq also noted that UNAMID has been slow to respond and needs to step up its patrols in the area. She noted that both NGOs and Sudanese police are "doing their part to restore order but UNAMID remains the weakest link." It is not clear where the 11,000 residents of Silea who did not enter Chad are now located, they may be the IDPs reputed to still be on Jenel Moon or they may have moved further South toward El Geneina. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) No sooner had the GOS deployed civilian police to Sirba and Bir Degeeg (as we and the UN had requested on February 24) and allowed the UN and NGO access to these areas, than it (allegedly) began another apparent attack on Jebel Moon. The SAF clearly wants to gain the upper hand in West Darfur by attacking a weakened and divided JEM. In this particular case it appears that civilians were not affected, with JEM positions being the primary targets. The return of some IDPs to some villages in West Darfur is good news. It shows that sometimes the GOS can do the right thing, even though it is correcting a wrong which it caused in the first place. The returns also confirm what many in the humanitarian community believe - that it doesn't take a lot to restore a minimum level of security; in this case some Sudanese police and aggressive follow-up by unarmed and courageous NGO workers. One can only imagine what a well-equipped, mobile and empowered UNAMID could do. FERNANDEZ