MINAWI: ERDIMI REJECTS KHARTOUM'S PUSH FOR RENEWED OFFENSIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 000311 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF/C BETHEA, AF/SPG E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2013 TAGS: PREL PGOV USDELFESTTWO SU CD SUBJECT: MINAWI: ERDIMI REJECTS KHARTOUM'S PUSH FOR RENEWED OFFENSIVE REF: A. STATE 19672 ¶B. KHARTOUM 00273 CLASSIFIED BY: CDA ALBERTO M. FERNANDEZ, REASON: SECTIONS 1.4 (B) AND ( D) ¶1. (C) POLOFF DELIVERED REQUESTED DEMARCHE TO SENIOR ASSISTANT TO THE PRESIDENT AND SUDAN LIBERATION MOVEMENT (SLM) CHAIRMAN MINNI MINAWI ON MARCH 1 (REF. A). MINAWI REPORTED THAT HE LAST SPOKE TO RALLY OF FORCES FOR CHANGE (RFC) PRESIDENT TIMAN ERDIMI ON FEBRUARY 29. ERDIMI TOLD HIM THAT NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY SERVICE (NISS) DIRECTOR GENERAL SALAH GHOSH MET WITH HIM AND OTHER CHADIAN OPPOSITION LEADERS, INCLUDING MAHAMET NOURI, IN EL GENEINA, WEST DARFUR "IN THE LAST THREE DAYS" AND PRESSED THEM TO LAUNCH A RENEWED OFFENSIVE AGAINST PRESIDENT IDRISS DEBY'S GOVERNMENT WITHIN TWO WEEKS. ¶2. (C) ERDIMI INDICATED THAT GHOSH DEMANDED HE SUPPORT NOURI AS THE LEADER OF A UNITED CHADIAN OPPOSITION AND PRESUMPTIVE SUCCESSOR TO DEBY. ERDIMI CLAIMED THAT GHOSH TOLD HIM THAT THE NATIONAL CONGRESS PARTY (NCP) LEADERSHIP "DISLIKED THE ZAGHAWA" AND WOULD THUS NOT SUPPORT ERDIMI TO LEAD THE OPPOSITION. ERDIMI EXPLAINED TO MINAWI THAT, HAVING BEEN DENIED A LEADERSHIP POSITION AMONG THE CHADIAN REBEL MOVEMENTS, HE WILL REFUSE TO PARTICIPATE IN A NEW ATTEMPT TO OVERTHROW DEBY'S REGIME AND WILL HEAD TO JEBEL MAWIA TO WAIT OUT EVENTS. ¶3. (C) ERDIMI CONSIDERS THE AFRICAN UNION (AU) MEDIATION EFFORT LED BY CONGO AND LIBYA TO BE BIASED AND UNCREDIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN LIGHT OF LIBYAN SUPPORT FOR AHMED SUBIAN--AN ARAB. THE RFC PRESIDENT REITERATED HIS REQUEST FOR NEUTRAL MEDIATION FROM THE U.S., SAID MINAWI. (NOTE: MINAWI IS LIKELY TO RAISE THIS ISSUE WITH A/S FRAZER AND OTHER USG OFFICIALS DURING HIS TRIP TO WASHINGTON FROM MARCH 2-8. END NOTE.) ¶4. (C) MINAWI POSITED THAT EVEN IF SUDAN SUCCEEDS IN INSTALLING NOURI IN N'DJAMENA, HIS TENURE IN OFFICE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. KHARTOUM'S ULTIMATE GOAL IS TO ESTABLISH AN ARAB GOVERNMENT IN CHAD, ACCORDING TO MINAWI, AND ONCE A PUPPET GOVERNMENT REPLACES DEBY, THEY WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO REPLACE NOURI WITH SUBIAN. SUCH A GOVERNMENT COULD PRESUMABLY GARNER NEW SUPPORT FROM IMPORTANT REGIONAL STATES SUCH AS LIBYA AND SAUDI ARABIA. FERNANDEZ