VIOLENCE FLARES AGAIN ALONG 1956 BORDER

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000308 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON AND AF/SPG NSC FOR HUDSON AND PITTMAN ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958:N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS MOPS KDEM SU SUBJECT: VIOLENCE FLARES AGAIN ALONG 1956 BORDER REFS: A. KHARTOUM 256 ¶B. KHARTOUM 298 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Violence has erupted again along the Kiir River in Northern Bahr el Ghazal state, where supposedly non-Misseriya Northern Popular Defense Forces have reportedly launched simultaneous attacks against three separate SPLA positions. Although calm returned after five hours of fighting, the SPLA Chief of Staff canceled his international travel plans to address the issue. According to SPLA sources, PDF commanders from outside of Southern Kordofan state directed this latest violence, while a Ngok Dinka-Misseriya peace pact withstood the fighting. The SPLA plans to protest the attack at the March 4 Joint Defense Board, and discuss possible UNMIS deployment to the area with appropriate UN officials. Misseriyya leaders and local media paint a radically different view of these events, claiming that they are the victims of an aggressive SPLA. END SUMMARY. "Significant and Worrisome" Attacks -------------- ¶2. (SBU) According to SPLA sources, On March 1, the SPLA sustained simultaneous assaults against three of its positions along the Kiir (Bahr el Arab) river in Northern Bahr el Ghazal state. SPLA Chief of Staff General Oyai Deng Ajak termed the attacks "significant and worrisome," and cancelled planned travel to Uganda to remain in Southern Sudan and address the issue. Ajak told ConGen PolOff that Popular Defense Forces launched the attacks from El-Meriam and Muglad, Southern Kordofan, and that the SPLA sustained heavy casualties during successive waves of attacks, but claimed "we repulsed them completely following the fourth assault." Local Peace Agreement Intact -------------- ¶3. (SBU) SPLA Major General Kuol Diem Kuol, Chairman of the Joint Defense Board's Technical Secretariat, told ConGen PolOff that the attacks were not orchestrated by Misseriya but consisted exclusively of "mujahadeen" recruited from elsewhere in the North. He claimed the forces were led by a Khartoum resident who worked as a journalist for (radical, pro-Al-Qa'ida, virulently anti-SPLM) Al Intibaha newspaper. He insisted that Misseriya were not involved in the March 1 fighting, and described a recently brokered pact between Misseriya chieftains and Ngok Dinka chieftains about transit and grazing rights within the Muglad-Abyei-Agok corridor. ¶4. (SBU) Kuol asserted that Misseriya chiefs involved in recent SAF-supported attacks against the SPLA have abandoned their agreement with the Northern army, and cemented their defection "from the ranks of war-mongers to supporters of peace" with a "peace agreement" with Ngok Dinka chieftains the week of February 25. Kuol said that joint delegations of Misseriya and Ngok Dinka chieftains are currently holding briefing sessions with local affected populations and erstwhile Misseriya militias throughout the western region of Southern Kordofan state. In addition to explaining the inter-tribal pact, Misseriya chiefs are advising people to refrain from violence and "reject untrustworthy offers from Khartoum." Massive Census Migration -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Asked about the possible motivation for fresh PDF offensives, Kuol told ConGen PolOff that Southerners in Khartoum had been planning a massive overland return to the Bahr el Ghazal region in the weeks immediately preceding the national census. These mainly are Southerners with school-age children who want to be present in the South for the census, but who do not intend to remain permanently, lest they interrupt their children's education. (NOTE: Road connections between Southern Kordofan state and Northern Bahr el Ghazal state remain one of the few easily traversable roads connecting the North and South. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported that Northern and Western Bahr el Ghazal saw 240,000 returnees during the 2007 dry season. END NOTE.) Situation Stabilized -------------- ¶6. (SBU) SPLA Chief of Staff Ajak told ConGen PolOff that the situation has stabilized along the river following five hours of sustained attacks. Casualty reports reaching Ajak by 10:00PM on March 1 indicated that at least a dozen SPLA soldiers required medevac, and that at least 25 PDF had been killed. SPLA death tolls had not yet been reported. Asked whether the SPLA Darfur brigade from Aweil would be dispatched as reinforcements, Ajak responded negatively, noting that "such action still would greatly complicate their integration into the SPLA." (NOTE: Ex-PDF forces from South Darfur were brought into the SPLA last October and are currently being maintained as a separate unit co-located with the SPLA division in Aweil. END NOTE.) Ajak noted that there are two battalions in the vicinity of the attacks that remained unaffected and could serve as reinforcements as necessary. In response to questions about whether UNMIS deployment to the area would be of value, the Chief of Staff agreed that it was an avenue that should be explored and committed to raising it with CJMC Chairman General Lidder directly - in addition to tabling it at the March 4 Joint Defense Board. ¶7. (SBU) Meanwhile Misseriyya leaders in Khartoum totally rejected the SPLA depiction of events (septel). They described themselves as victims of aggressive, well-armed SPLA units seeking to create facts on the ground in the contested Abyei region. They claim the fighting was along the Kiir River in Abyei not in Bahr al-Ghazal state and that the presence of SPLA units is a clear violation of the CPA. Sudanese newspapers, especially "Akhbar al-Yawm" on page one on March 3 printed details and photos of the 33 "martyrs" and 34 wounded (being cared for at Omdurman Military Hospital and the Police Hospital) among Misseriyya herders killed and injured in the clashes. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (SBU) GOSS President Kiir has previously noted that violence along the 1956 border has coincided with Joint Defense Board meetings - the latest NCP tactic to control the meeting's agenda and probe SPLA response to violence while many senior SPLA commanders are outside of the South. More broadly, the March 1 attacks coincide with organizing meetings for the SPLM National Convention that have brought party luminaries from Foreign Minister Deng Alor to Deputy Secretary General Yasir Arman to Juba - adding another layer of stress to the already taxed GNU "junior partner." The shift from Misseriya chieftains to "Northern muhajadeen" is significant, if accurate. Not only does it suggest a more hard-line commitment to violence by elements in Khartoum, but also shows the degree of difficulty the NCP faces in recruiting local forces grown weary of broken promises. The actual facts on the ground in distant Abyei, however, remain murky. Misseriyya leaders in Khartoum and press coverage depict ill-armed Misseriyya herders as victims of an aggressive, well-armed SPLA operating north of the 1956 border FERNANDEZ