JUBA PEACE TALKS DEADLOCKED OVER POWER SHARING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000259 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF SE WILLIAMSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV SU UG SUBJECT: JUBA PEACE TALKS DEADLOCKED OVER POWER SHARING ¶1. (SBU) The Juba Peace Talks between the Government of Uganda and the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) resumed on January 30. If an agreement is signed in the next week as hoped for, it is an historical step that will bring an end to a conflict that has lasted more than 20 years, resulted in extensive suffering and loss of life and hampered development in northern Uganda. ¶2. (SBU) The initial talks lasted for just a few days, broke off, and then resumed again on February 18 to consider five annexes to the original agreement. The negotiations, which are being held in Juba, are between a delegation of the Ugandan Government, led by Minister of Internal Affairs Rugunda and State Minister for International Affairs Oryem-Okello, and an LRA delegation led by David Matsanga. The talks are chaired by the vice-president of Southern Sudan, Dr. Rieck Machar, and co-chaired by the UN special envoy and former president Joaquim Chissano. Official observers at the talks include representatives from the DRC, Mozambique, South Africa, Kenya and Tanzania; the EU, the U.S. and Norway. Besides the official observers, who will sign the agreements as witnesses, a number of other observers are present, including UN agencies, Ugandan MPs, and representatives from Ugandan civil society. ¶3. (SBU) Two of the five annexes have been signed so far, one extending a ceasefire between the LRA and the GoU until the end of this month, and the other the Accountability and Reconciliation Annex, which was signed February 19. Deliberations on that Annex were intense, but both parties seemed determined to conclude the agreement and were willing to make concessions. Largely owing to intensive shuttle diplomacy by the chief-mediator and UN envoy Chissano, the agreement was concluded by 3 AM on February 19. The international observers signed as witnesses, including the U.S. The sticking point in this Annex revolved around the issue of arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for three LRA leaders, including Kony. The LRA position was that the Ugandan government should take the case to the Security Council to suspend the indictments for one year to give time for Ugandan justice to deal with Kony. In the final text, however, this was not mentioned and the reference to the requirements of the Rome Statute of the ICC now contained in the agreement was satisfactory to the parties and the international community present. ¶4. (SBU) While the peace talks in Juba are proceeding, a group of LRA fighters is allegedly moving from Garamba national park in the DRC along the border at the Sudanese side towards the Central African Republic. If this is proven true, it constitutes a clear breach of the cessation of hostilities agreement. A second group of rebels is attacking villages in South Sudan, close to the Imatongas mountain range and is, according to the UN and local authorities, a LRA-related group. The LRA denies responsibility and the official report from the Cessation of Hostilities Monitoring Team does not attribute these acts of violence to the LRA. The reasons behind this can be either that the attacks are either not carried out by the LRA or that all parties are keen on avoiding further complications now that the signing of an agreement is within reach. (Comment: We believe some factions of the LRA have splintered away from Kony and have joined with local bandits and SPLA deserters to form new groups. One combatant was captured that we know of, and he turned out to be a SPLA deserter of Dinka origin. End comment) ¶5. (SBU) Currently, the talks are now deadlocked around the issue of power-sharing and the integration of former LRA combatants into the Ugandan army. The LRA is insisting that five Northern Ugandans be appointed to ministerial level positions, although they do not have to be from the LRA, and that LRA soldiers be admitted into the army at their current rank. The GoU delegation does not want to set a precedent of rewarding a rebel movement by agreeing to appoint new ministers, especially not this rebel movement, and it insists that the structure of the LRA is not the same as in the regular army and therefore LRA officers would have to be assessed and assigned appropriate rank to be admitted into the regular armed forces. Both sides have agreed to let these two points go for the time being in an attempt to settle on all other disputes. They will return to them at the end. The feeling is that the GoU might make some concessions if it knows that only these two points remain to be settled in order to conclude a peace agreement. However, at one point the LRA delegation walked out of the talks on Thursday night. Intensive shuttle diplomacy continues between the two sides, however, and there is reason to believe the walk-out was for dramatic effect. ¶6. Comment: If no agreement can be concluded by the end of next week, the talks will likely collapse. The Sudanese are doing their best to pressure each side to make accommodations for the sake of peace, but it is difficult to predict the outcome at this time. For the Juba Peace Talks to succeed, continued engagement and pressure by the international community is essential. KHARTOUM 00000259 002 OF 002 FERNANDEZ