CENSUS: HOME-STRETCH LOOKING BETTER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000231 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG, A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: CENSUS: HOME-STRETCH LOOKING BETTER ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: President Bashir issued a February 11 presidential decree reiterating that Sudan's inaugural nation-wide census will be conducted April 15-30. The following day's meeting of the Census Technical Working Group (TWG) left donors, the CBS, and the Southern Sudan Commission for the Census and Statistical Evaluation largely satisfied about the pace of preparations for the census. However, delays in financial transfers remain a problem: $27.2 million remains to be transferred to the CBS, with $13.4 million of it destined for the SSCCSE. A second problem is GOSS unhappiness with the questions on the census form - which they say do not reflect requested changes pushed for by the SPLM in November 2007. END SUMMARY. -------------- CENSUS STATUS: SO FAR, SO GOOD -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Donors including the EC, World Bank, Danida, and USG were cautiously optimistic about the national census following a February 12 TWG meeting. CBS staff spoke about remaining challenges to the conduct of the census in the North. For example, the CBS does not have enough funding to conduct a training of trainers for enumerators, and will be forced to depend on the Center's supervisory staff to conduct training - a task for which they themselves have not been trained. Additionally, the CBS has not yet been able to identify adequate storage facilities for census forms and equipment in the North. ¶3. (SBU) The SSCCSE, in contrast, is reportedly ahead of its CBS counterparts on all technical aspects of the census (particularly its public advocacy campaign) save for completed mapping of enumerator areas. Mapping in Jonglei remains incomplete as a result of instability in the state (the South's largest) but is 90% complete; the Commission believes this task will be finalized by mid-March. Minster for Internal Affairs Paul Mayom told ConGen PolOff that the GOSS is closely monitoring the security situation in the South, and save for limited areas within Western Bahr El Ghazal state bordering South Darfur and portions of Upper Nile State which border Ethiopia, he does not foresee security incidents disrupting the census. "Jonglei will have been fixed by then," he said. -------------- EXCEPT FOR THE MONEY -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Inconsistent and insufficient financial transfers still hamper the census, and observers agree that this must be addressed immediately. The SSCCSE reported to the TWG that it was still owed $4.4 million in 2007 funds from the CBS. The newly-appointed CBS Chairman noted that he did not have immediate information, as the decision to withhold funds pre-dated his appointment, but promised he would move to rectify the situation upon his return to Khartoum. The chairman then noted that the GNU owes $22.8 million from 2008 funding to the census effort, yet the recently passed National Budget Act only includes $18 million in funding. The World Bank counseled donors after the TWG Session to ignore the shortfall and focus their advocacy efforts on the immediate release of funds to the CBS and its immediate transfer of funds to the SSCCSE. -------------- AND PERHAPS CREDIBILITY -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The World Bank, USG, and EC remain worried by the Monitoring and Observation Commission (MOC) performance to date and are advocating for international representatives on the Commission to change their status from Member to Observer. Donor views on a status-shift remain mixed: France, the UK, and Denmark believe it is too pessimistic a political signal to send in advance of the census; the EC is likely to unilaterally withdraw regardless of the decision of other donors. (Note: See comment for suggested U.S. actions on this issue. End note.) ¶6. (SBU) Donors remain dissatisfied with the MOC work plan for observation of the census. Viewed by most donors as "lacking," some observers pointed out that the plan may reflect the NCP's unwillingness to permit an accurate population count in southern Sudan to avoid a potential upward shift in the number of seats awarded to the SPLM in the National Assembly. Donors are planning to submit to the MOC the week of February 18 a work-plan for census observation. The plan was formulated by an international consultancy and contains timelines and scopes of work for specific technical experts during each phase of the census (conduct, tabulation, and data editing and interpretation) in an attempt to mitigate the potential for political manipulation. -------------- KHARTOUM 00000231 002 OF 002 NOTICEABLY ABSENT: THE POLITICAL DIMENSION -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The TWG did not discuss the Government of Southern Sudan's reported objection to census forms already printed which may not reflect changes agreed to in November 2007. GOSS Minister for Presidential Affairs Luka Biong Deng was not pleased following a February 8 meeting with UNMIS's David Gressly in which the UN explained the oversight. Last-minute SPLM requests on ethnicity and religion did not make the final printing, leaving only one identity question on the short questionnaire and no reference to geographic origin (i.e., Northerner/Southerner). The origin question remains pegged to county-level identification. Despite this, USAID contractors at the TWG reported that the SPLM - at least at the technical level - is not objecting to continuing with the census rollout. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Comment: The USG should decide whether to remain a "member" of the MOC or downgrade our participation to observer status. Post welcomes input from Washington on the issue. A nuanced position could be to offer observers in a technical capacity but downgrade to observer status. It would be useful, however, for all donors to agree to a united front on this issue. Given continued MOC resistance to donor observation, and its seeming indifference to appropriate oversight of the census, donors have concluded that census observation by the Carter Center, proffered during former President Carter's discussions on the 2009 Elections with Presidents Bashir and Kiir in 2007, may be the most viable vehicle for ensuring the participation of credible election observers. POWERS