TFCD01: CHADIAN DIPLOMAT: HAVING TIPPED ITS HAND,

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 000189 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, AND AF/C NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2013 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR SU CD SUBJECT: TFCD01: CHADIAN DIPLOMAT: HAVING TIPPED ITS HAND, KHARTOUM WILL PUSH TO UNSEAT DEBY REF: KHARTOUM 178 Classified By: CDA Alberto Fernandez, Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) A cabal of the National Congress Party's (NCP) most powerful officials is committed to the overthrow of the Chadian Government, and Sudan continues to reinforce the Chadian opposition in an attempt to unseat Deby's regime, the external security chief at the Chadian Embassy in Khartoum, Mohammed Tahir Tordjok, told Poloff on February 6. This very influential group--consisting of Presidential Assistant Nafie Ali Nafie, Director General of the National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) Salah Ghosh, Minister of Defense Abdulrahim Mohammed Hussein, Minister of the Interior Al Zubeir Bashir Taha, and Minister of Energy and Mining Awad Al Jaz--instigated the recent rebel attack on N'djamena, he claimed. ¶2. (C) Following a mid-January bombing run by Chadian aircraft that crossed into Sudanese territory, Presidential Advisor Mustafa Osman Ismail had convinced President Bashir to pursue a diplomatic solution to resolve mounting Chad-Sudan tensions. In recent weeks, however, Ismail was outflanked by NCP hard-liners, according to Tordjok. Having tipped its hand, Khartoum is now committed to a course to overthrow Deby's government, unless and until the Chadian opposition is annihilated. He claimed that a column of 100 vehicles carrying Chadian rebels departed from El Geneina on February 5, Tordjok said, and is heading toward N'djamena to reinforce fighters allied with the United Force for Democracy and Development (UFDD) and the Rally of Forces for Change (RFC). Tordjok confirmed separate reports that Defense Minister Hussein was in El Geneina as recently as February 4 to organize the rebel surge (reftel). ¶3. (C) Tordjok said International University of Africa Professor Hassan Makki--who has close ties to key regime figures such as MFA Undersecretary Mutriff Siddiq--called for the installation of an Arab, Islamic government in Chad on state television on February 3, a clear indication of the NCP's ultimate objectives (although neither of the two Chadian leaders supporter by Sudan - Nouri and Erdimi, Deby's nephew, are Arabs). Sudan's actions in Chad were part of its larger effort to destabilize the region, he asserted, as evidenced by its years of confrontation with its neighbors, including Egypt, Eritrea, and Ethiopia. ¶4. (C) Though insisting that Deby remained in firm control, Tordjok warned that Khartoum's attempt to overthrow the regime in N'djamena will turn Chad into a "second Somalia," as neither UFDD leader Mahamat Nouri nor RFC leader Timane Erdimi had the strength to form a stable government. The international community, particularly the U.S. and France, were responsible for counteracting Khartoum's aims by backing Deby's government with military force, Tordjok suggested. He predicted that any mediation efforts by the UN, AU or Libya-Congo will fail because Khartoum will never participate in genuine political dialogue. ¶5. (C) Tordjok denied reports that Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) fighters--one of Darfur's most formidable rebel factions--were poised outside N'djamena to assist Deby's counteroffensive. He conceded, however, that JEM partisans had entered Chad but would not provided additional details. ¶6. (C) Comment: Tordjok repeated views that are widely-held in Khartoum (and shared by post) that NCP hardliners in the Bashir regime have been actively supporting the Chadian rebels. Some of his information is contradicted by other sources, including reporting from Chad. Our information from JEM indicates that fighters from this Sudanese rebel movement - which is directly supported by Deby - entered Chad with the intent of defending President Deby militarily. End comment. But Tordjok accurately describes the political/security cabal within the regime responsible for many of Sudan's most outrageous actions in the past few years, the Chadian misadventure being only the latest one. ¶7. (U) Tripoli minimize considered. FERNANDEZ