CHADIAN REBELS - LEADERSHIP, GOS INFLUENCE, AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 001825


DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2018
TAGS: PINR PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: CHADIAN REBELS - LEADERSHIP, GOS INFLUENCE, AND
BACKGROUND ON TOLLIMI

REF: A. STATE 129300

B. KHARTOUM 01597


Classified By: A/CDA Mark Asquino, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) The following is a response to SECSTATE 129300.

CHADIAN OPPOSITION: SUSTAINABLE COALITION OR FLAWED?
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2. (C) "IS THE FINAL LEADERSHIP BODY OF THE UNITED CHADIAN
REBEL FRONT (THE PRESIDENT, VICE PRESIDENTS, PARLIAMENT,
MINISTERS) WIDELY ACCEPTED AMONG THE REBEL LEADERSHIP AND
RANK-AND-FILE SO THAT WE CAN EXPECT A SUSTAINABLE COALITION,
OR IS THE PROCESS VIEWED AS SOMEHOW FLAWED SO THAT WE CAN
EXPECT MORE IN-FIGHTING?" (reftel A)


3. (C) The Chadian rebels have not yet decided upon a
leadership body, and Post believes that they have not yet
transformed themselves into a sustainable coalition.
Although the Chadian rebels signed a general political
agreement (available on UFCD's website) the week of December
14, the opposition has not reached consensus on who should
lead their movement, politically or militarily. Additionally,
it now appears the very process of electing a leader has led
to an impasse. Although on December 20 Abaker Tollimi told
poloff once again that he expects the Chadian rebels to agree
on the rules for an election by the end of the month, the
Chadian rebels have been haggling over election procedures
for months. Tollimi further warned that RFC's Timane Erdimi
and UFDD's Mahamat Nouri are becoming increasingly frustrated
with the leadership and political struggles within the rebel
movements. "Erdimi is ready for war, Nouri is afraid of
elections, and it is not clear how this is all going to be
resolved," stated Tollimi. As in earlier meetings, Tollimi
repeated that if the five leaders are unable to agree upon
someone to lead their movement, then the second tier of
leaders (which includes himself) should be considered as
alternates.

INFLUENCE OF SUDANESE GOVERNMENT
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4. (C) "IS THERE ANY INFORMATION THAT CONFIRMS/DENIES
WHETHER SUDAN IS ATTEMPTING TO PREVENT ANY CHADIAN REBEL
ATTACKS THIS YEAR OR IS CONSIDERING PULLING MATERIAL SUPPORT
TO THE REBELS IF THEY CANNOT GET THEIR ACT TOGETHER AND
SELECT A SINGLE LEADER?" (reftel A)


5. (C) As reported in reftel B, Sudanese Intelligence Chief
Gosh told us on November 2 that Sudan would not allow "any
attacks on Chad from Sudanese territory from now until the
end of the year." Although Gosh appears to have held to his
promise, this may have been one of the GoS's easier pledges
to keep. (The fragmentation of the Chadian rebels prevented
any successful attack, and the GoS has attempted to
demonstrate its cooperation with the international community
with the ICC's looming announcement of a possible indictment
against President Bashir.)


6. (C) Chadian rebel leaders in Khartoum have stated that
the Government of Sudan threatened to cut off support to the
Chadian rebels unless they can agree on a single leader.
Despite this threat, according to a number of the rebels, the
GoS has not given them a deadline for this process, nor
expressed its own preferences. Chadian rebels reported that
this represents a change to previous GoS unification efforts,
as the GoS on prior occasions made known its own interests in
the selection process. Rather than the GoS's removing its
support, should the rebels remain fragmented, Post expects
that in early 2009 the GoS will increase its pressure on the
Chadian rebels and set a deadline for the election process.
Post further believes the GoS will continue to keep its proxy
forces (including the Chadian rebels) as close as possible,
should it need to flex its muscles against Chad and the
international community as a whole.

BACKGROUND ON UFDD'S ABAKER TOLLIMI
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7. (C) "ANALYSTS WOULD APPRECIATE CLARIFICATION ON HIS
ETHNICITY AND HOW IT MIGHT HELP/HURT HIM IF HE IS TRYING TO
RISE TO THE TOP OF THE REBEL LEADERSHIP STRUCTURE. WE THINK
HE IS HALF ZAGHAWA (MOTHER) AND HALF GORANE (FATHER). WHEN
HE INITIALLY JOINED THE REBELLION, HE WAS CONSIDERED A
ZAGHAWA REBEL, BUT WE CAN IMAGINE THAT IF HE FEELS CLOSER TO
MAHAMAT NOURI, HE WOULD EMPHASIZE HIS GORANENESS. WE WOULD
APPRECIATE ANY MORE INFORMATION ON WHICH ZAGHAWA SUB-CLAN HE
IS RELATED TO, WHY HE HAS NEVER JOINED FORCES WITH FELLOW


ZAGHAWA TIMAN ERDIMI, AND WHETHER HE HAS FAMILY TIES WITH THE
DEBY REGIME (WE THINK HE IS THE UNCLE OF FORMER FINANCE
MINISTER ABBAS TOLLI)." (reftel A)


8. (C) When asked about his ethnicity, Abaker Tollimi told
poloff without hesitation on December 20, that he is Gorane.
Poloff then asked about the ethnicity of his parents, to
which Tollimi admitted that his mother is one-half Zaghawa
(of the Bideyat clan),and one-half Gorane, and his father is
one-hundred percent Gorane. Tollimi said he is from the Fada
region, populated largely by the Borogat. He said that like
most of the people in this region, he speaks both Zaghawa
and Gorane - something he considers an asset in uniting the
people of Chad. When asked whether he identified with his
Zaghawa roots, Tollimi responded, "I am glad that I speak
Zaghawa, but the Zaghawa will not play a major role in any
new government in Chad." He then stated that if there is a
regime change in Chad, the Sudanese Zaghawa ("except for the
refugees") will be forced to leave Chad. Tollimi noted that
RFC leader Timane Erdimi from the Zaghawa tribe will not be
able to offer an appropriate leader for either the Chadian
rebels or any future Government in Chad. Tollimi said that
his father was the Sultan of the Borogat, and that after his
father's death, his older brother, Widay Tollimi, assumed
that role. He said that another older brother, Muhammad
Tollimi (now deceased,) married President Deby's sister and
had two children. One of these children, Abbas Muhammad
Tollimi, was the former Minister of Finance in President
Deby's regime. Tollimi stated, "I am related only by my
brother's marriage, not blood, to President Deby, and I
differ greatly from my nephew on political issues."
Forty-four year old Tollimi is married and has six children
--four boys and two girls. He lives in Khartoum with his
wife and their children.


ASQUINO