JEM SPOKESMAN SAYS RUMORS OF ATTACK ARE GOS "SMOKESCREEN"

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001793 DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, AF/E NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: JEM SPOKESMAN SAYS RUMORS OF ATTACK ARE GOS "SMOKESCREEN" REFS: A) KHARTOUM 1790 B) KHARTOUM 1771 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On December 11-12, UNAMID sources told POLOFF they had received unconfirmed reports from the GOS that a large column of JEM vehicles had been observed crossing Chad border into Sudan. However, they were unclear whether this alleged mobilization signified preparation for new attacks within Sudanese territory, or simply a regular troop movement within JEM-controlled areas, as claimed by rival rebel commanders. UNDSS sources were also unable to confirm or deny details of a JEM mobilization or rumors of an attack. Meanwhile, JEM spokesman Ahmed Hussein denied any knowledge of the movement's military affairs. Nevertheless, he dismissed these reports as nothing more than GOS "fear-mongering", and chastised UNAMID for accepting them blindly. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) On December 11, UNAMID Planning Chief Noddy Stafford told poloff that GOS sources reported a column of approx. 300 vehicles with military personnel and equipment had been observed crossing Chad border into Sudan (ref A). Two movements had been seen. The first one between 1821 hrs and 1848 hrs on December 11 at Mado area (N 26:15'"15" E 14:37'25"),about 75 km NE of Mellit. The second column was observed at 2023 hrs at location (N24:34'47" E 16:04'02"),approx 220 km N of Kutum. All UNAMID sectors have been told to exercise maximum vigilance and attempt to confirm these reports through sources and patrols, he said. ¶3. (SBU) On December 12 Stafford told POLOFF that SLA/AW and SLA/Unity Commanders in Birmaza and Kutum areas told UNAMID officials that no JEM forces had recently crossed the northern border into Darfur. Rather, the reported mobilization constituted a regular movement of troops within JEM-controlled areas, they said. Additional information received by UNAMID indicated that on December 12, 100 JEM vehicles were spotted around Birmaza in North Darfur, though SLA/AW and SLA/Unity commanders in the area denied having any knowledge of this. Stafford noted that the mission of the JEM contingent had yet to be ascertained, but it was assumed that they were preparing to launch attacks within Sudanese territory, probably in Kordofan or El Fasher. (Note: Two days later on December 14, Stafford told POLOFF that he had no new information to communicate. End Note.) On December 15, the UNDSS Duty Officer told POLOFF that while rumors of a possible, imminent JEM attack were rife, UNDSS had been unable to confirm or deny them. ¶4. (SBU) In a conversation with POLOFF on December 15, JEM Spokesman Ahmed Hussein denied any knowledge of the movement's military affairs, but characterized the rumors as a "smokescreen" put forth by the GOS. "They're just seeking to shift the attention of the Sudanese people and the international community away from their own abuses and internal struggles," he said. "It's their usual propaganda." He expressed disappointment that such rumors receive credence from UNAMID, even though they have been proven false in the past. Hussein also accused the government of attempting to "create chaos" in Darfur, and stated that it was behind the recent tribal clashes between the Fallata and Habaniya in South Darfur (ref A). ¶5. (SBU) Alleged movements of JEM forces have not restricted the World Food Program's (WFP) distribution of humanitarian food aid in Darfur, according to security officers with WFP. "Relatively speaking, the situation is somewhat normal," Philip Tyrell, WFP security coordinator in Nyala, told poloff. General UN restrictions on movement have caused the WFP to minimize non-essential activity, but Tyrell noted that this has not caused any specific operational cutbacks. Kenneth Nichols, WFP security officer in El Geneina, told poloff that the WFP has increased the level at which it monitors the potential for instability in West Darfur, but WFP has already completed its December distribution operations there. Nichols said he had seen nothing yet to indicate that West Darfur will become more unstable than it already is come January 2009. ¶6. (SBU) Comment: Rumors of a large JEM column of vehicles (on the scale described by the GOS) in El Fasher or Kordofan remain unsubstantiated, though post will continue to monitor the situation closely. Hussein's claim to have no knowledge of JEM's movements on the ground is not implausible, as many JEM political officials are left in the dark on military matters. But his claim that the government is solely behind the rumors of a JEM attack is not totally honest. JEM recently released several new videos on its website showcasing its military strength and threatening new action against the regime (ref B). It is possible that JEM is seeking to flex its muscles before potential peace talks in Qatar, or that the GOS is using the alleged troop movements as a pretext for a potential offensive against JEM. Either way, the tense atmosphere does not bode well for the illusory Darfur ceasefire. KHARTOUM 00001793 002.2 OF 002 ASQUINO