TFCD01: SUDANESE DYNAMICS AS CHAD SITUATION UNFOLDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000179 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, AND AF/C NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2013 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS KPKO UN AU SU CD LY SUBJECT: TFCD01: SUDANESE DYNAMICS AS CHAD SITUATION UNFOLDS REF: KHARTOUM 00116 KHARTOUM 00000179 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: CDA Alberto Fernandez, Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) and (d) -------------- JEM Rallies for Deby -------------- ¶1. (C) Reiterating its support for the government of Chadian President Idris Deby, the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) led by Khalil Ibrahim has vowed to "repel any attack" by Khartoum-backed Chadian rebel movements, JEM representatives told Field Poloff on February 4. While refusing to disclose their precise locations, JEM confirmed that some of its forces had moved into Chad and were "in good condition." They were emphatic that the Chadian military had expelled the rebels from N'djamena. In one representatives words, Deby had "destroyed" the opposition, and reaffirmed that the Sudanese Government was backing the movements. ¶2. (C) On February 3, JEM posted an Arabic statement on its Website admonishing the Sudanese Government for attempting to overthrow Deby's government, expressing gratitude to Deby for assisting Sudanese refugees in Chad, and calling on the international community to condemn Khartoum for instigating the "bloody incidents in Chad." (Note: See para. 6 for the complete text of the JEM statement. End note.) Credible reports indicate that the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA)/Unity--like JEM, a largely Zaghawa-dominated and militarily powerful Darfur rebel movement--has also dispatched fighters into Chad to aid Deby's forces (reftel). -------------- Minawi Calls for PKO Deployment -------------- ¶3. (C) Senior Assistant to the President and Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) Chairman Minni Minawi has called publicly for the immediate deployment of the EU peacekeeping force into Chad and of the UN-AU Mission in Darfur (UNAMID). Contrary to some reports in the pro-National Congress Party (NCP) press, the SLM supports a division of labor between EUFOR and UNAMID and does not believe that UNAMID should intervene in Chad. Since he canceled a February 1 visit to N'djamena, Minawi's contact with the Chadian government has been limited to Deby's chef de cabinet. Minawi told Poloff on February 4 that he had spoken to the Rally of Forces for Change's (RFC) Timan Erdimi earlier in the day, who had asked Minawi to intercede with the Chadian Government to end the bombing campaign. In exchange, Erdimi pledged to cease the rebel offensive (Erdimi is Chadian President Deby's nephew) . Minawi plans to continue to engage with senior Chadian officials. -------------- Hilal Stumps for Rebels -------------- ¶4. (SBU) In perhaps ill-timed remarks to the Sudanese press on February 3, Musa Hilal, the leader of a notorious Darfur Arab militia and newly appointed advisor to the Minister of Federal Rule, denied accusation that Khartoum is backing the Chadian opposition. Hilal, however, asserted that the collapse of Deby's regime would "bode well for Sudan" and would herald an improvement in the bilateral relationship, according to the sensationalist Arabic daily "Akhir Lahza." -------------- Adada Calls for Calm -------------- ¶5. (U) Joint Special Representative Rudolphe Adada issued the following statement on February 3 regarding events in Chad: (Begin text) The JSR, Rudolphe Adada, is following with deep concern the deteriorating security situation in Chad and the impact it could have on the situation in Darfur. He also notes with great regret the attacks that led to the crippling of humanitarian activities in the region and the evacuation of most of the UNHCR staff from the town of Guereda in Eastern Chad and the series of armed attacks against aid workers. Bearing in mind the strong historical and ethnic bonds between Sudan and Chad which share a long border, the JSR further notes that the African Continent in particular and KHARTOUM 00000179 002.2 OF 003 the international community in general do not wish to see another bloody conflict in the region, and urges all parties to exercise self-restraint. The JSR reiterates the call of the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon that all parties abide by their commitments under the different peace accords signed by them and to urgently resort to dialogue to reach a peaceful and negotiated settlement of this latest crisis. (End text) -------------- JEM STATEMENT -------------- ¶6. (U) The following is an unofficial translation prepared by Post of a statement posted on JEM's website on February 3: (Being text) A Statement on Khartoum Government's Attempt to Topple the Established Regime in Chad The Sudanese Justice and Equality Movement would like to express its deep concern over the ongoing regretful incidents in N'djamena, Chad. Many lives have been lost due to the Sudanese government's recklessness, which pushed some of the Chadian opposition and the Sudanese Popular Defense Forces (PDF) to this adventure. JEM is concerned about the following: First: The safety and security of the Sudanese refugees and the displaced who found refuge in neighboring Chad. Chad has spared no effort to provide all means of support to them despite its economic and political circumstances. Such an adventure (the Chadian opposition surge) would definitely lead to more suffering, displacement and homelessness as it would motivate a large number of Chadian refugees to enter into Sudan and into Darfur, in particular. Second: JEM is committed to the principle of respecting good neighborliness, non-interference in other states' affairs, and international stability to provide prospects of peaceful coexistence. Such a flagrant interference by the Khartoum government through military and human support--consisting of PDF mercenaries--affirms its bad intentions and creates chaos along the border to make the deployment of the international forces impossible. Third: Endeavoring to topple the established regime in Chad has not and will not be the means to resolve the problem in Darfur. To the contrary, this will exacerbate and complicate a solution; tribal and ethnic interference creates bad consequences. While (President Omer) Al Bashir was in a meeting with President Idris Deby in Tripoli under the auspices of Brother Commander Qaddhafi for resolving the problem between the two countries, Defense Minister Abdelrahim Hussein was in El Geneina personally supervising this operation. This proves the government's lack of sincerity to reach a peaceful solution as it affirms its persistence to topple the regime in Chad. Fourth: After the established regime in Khartoum failed to confront JEM on the military and political arena, it is now seeking to drag it into battles created by the (Sudanese) Government--between the Chadian Government and the Chadian opposition--along the border if it succeeds to overthrow the regime in Chad. Fifth: JEM calls upon the AU, UN, EU, Arab League and all the peace-loving people, humanitarian organizations, and all neighboring states to condemn the government in Khartoum and to bear it liable for the outcome of the bloody incidents in Chad. Sixth: JEM affirms that the solution of the Darfur problem and Sudan in general depends on the peaceful option and serious constructive negotiations toward a lasting peace. Seventh: JEM congratulates the Chadian leadership, state and people, and President Idris Deby's success, in particular, in foiling this conspiracy as it also pray for their martyrs to rest their souls in peace and wishes quick recovery for the wounded. KHARTOUM 00000179 003.2 OF 003 Ahmed Adam Bakheit Political Secretary Darfur Sector Liberation Lands Thuraya: 88 216 2111 56 99 (End text) ¶7. (SBU) Tripoli minimize considered. FERNANDEZ