38th AEC Plenary: Elections, Border Demarcation, and

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 001779 DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, DRL NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON EAID KDEM KPKO UNSC SU SUBJECT: 38th AEC Plenary: Elections, Border Demarcation, and Security in Southern Kordofan REFS: A. KHARTOUM 1685 ¶B. KHARTOUM 1676 ¶B. KHARTOUM 1738 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: At its 37th plenary session on December 2, the NCP and SPLM briefed the Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC) on progress in drafting and adopting key legislation, including new security and media laws, necessary to carry out national elections in 2009. The Power Sharing Working Group chair suggested that the North-South Boundary Commission submit the draft report of its findings to the Presidency as soon as possible, with reservations if necessary. The Security Working Group reported that it found worrying levels of tension and mistrust, and a proliferation of small arms on its visit to Southern Kordofan and urged continued vigilance. END SUMMARY. Chairman's Introduction - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (U) AEC Chairman Derrick Plumbly noted important developments since the November Plenary in the "priority" areas identified in the AEC Mid-term Evaluation. The National Election Commission (NEC) had been sworn in on November 17 (ref. A). He understood that the Parties had agreed on a draft Media Law and that they would provide a progress report later in the meeting. Ambassador Plumbly reported that the AEC Secretariat was following up on the NCPs proposal at the last plenary on how to link with the appropriate agencies of the Government of National Unity on national election preparations (ref. B). He said there has been no substantial change in the dispute over foreign exchange, based on his discussions with the Finance Ministers of the GNU and GoSS, but the two parties were continuing to work together on a solution. He also noted that Sudan is under growing pressure on a number of fronts, including the threat of an International Criminal Court indictment of President Bashir and the fallout from the global economic crisis, which is impacting the Government of South Sudan in particular. Election Preparations and Pending Legislation - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (U) SPLM representative Kosti Manibe reported that the Parties had made a commitment in principle to adopt all critical laws during this session of the Assembly. He said that the NCP and SPLM are discussing nine draft laws, of which two (the Land Commission and Human Rights Commission Laws) had been gazetted in the National Assembly. The Parties had agreed on a draft Media Law. Chairman Plumbly added that he understood that the two sides also were close to agreement on the Security Law, but there still were three or four disputed points. The NCP reported that UNMIS-AEC-NEC are jointly planning a workshop, at which veterans of other African elections would share their lessons-learned. The Coordinator of the Power Sharing Working Group, Italian Ambassador Catoni, applauded the progress the Parties are making and said that Italy is prepared to provide financial support through the AEC to the NEC. CDA Criticizes Detentions, NCP Replies - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (U) CDA Fernandez also congratulated the two sides on their progress, saying that while there remains a lot of work to do, the United States is hopeful about the new legislation. He then raised U.S. concerns about disharmony between observing the letter and the spirit of the laws. He emphasized the need to create an enabling and positive environment for the coming elections. He noted the recent arrests by the authorities of Sudanese journalists and the detention of human rights activists (ref C). While these actions may be legal under current Sudanese law, he said, they are contrary to the environment conducive to free and fair elections that we are working to create. He hoped that the adoption of the new Media and Security laws would bring with it a change from old practices. ¶5. (U) The CDA's remarks drew a testy response from the NCP. Minister of State for Presidential Affairs Idris Abdelgadir replied that the government's actions had been completely legal under Sudanese law. The NCP demanded that the CDA's comments be stricken from the minutes and said the NCP would not approve minutes in which they were included, objecting specifically to the terms "abuse of human rights and "ghost houses" used by the Charge. ¶6. (U) The African Union representative reported that its Peace and Security Council had met the previous week in Addis and had expressed concern at the amount of work that remains to be done before elections can be held. The AU asks that it be kept informed about the passage of key laws. He also asked whether the Parties expect the elections to be held as scheduled and whether the National Assembly would stay in office after the legislation is passed. For itself, the SPLM replied that it is committed to holding elections on time. The European Union endorsed the idea of KHARTOUM 00001779 002 OF 003 an elections workshop, saying it would be a good opportunity to share experience of other African countries. Census Results Timing - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (U) Kenya inquired about the timing of the release of census results. Ambassador Plumbly responded that at its November 11 meeting with the Central Bureau of Statistics, the AEC had been told that preliminary results will be by the end of December. He said that given the political environment, the final results will be extremely sensitive. He urged that the Parties consult together on how they will be presented to avoid any problems when they are released. North-South Border Demarcation - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (U) Chairman Plumbly referred to encouraging press reports about progress in demarcating the North-South border. He asked whether the Boundary Commission's report would be sent to the Presidency soon. Ambassador Catoni reported that the Boundary Commission has prepared a draft report of its findings, but that it is not ready for transmission to the Presidency and he anticipated further delay. He suggested that the report might be sent, with any reservations included. Chairman Plumbly said that he hoped the Commission's report would be sent to the Presidency soon, with reservations if necessary. Southern Kordofan: Tension, Mistrust and Tribal Militias - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (U) UK Ambassador Marsden reported on the Security Working Group's November 17-18 visit to South Kordofan, prompted partly by the alarming, recent International Crisis Group report on the area, to get an on-the-ground sense of the security situation there and what additional measures need to be taken. She said the WG had found a worrying level of tension, mistrust, and a proliferation of small arms among tribal-based militias. She reported that local tensions, and intermittent clashes, are tribal, rather than politically, based, that each tribe has formed its own militia, and the approaching seasonal migration could prove a catalyst for violence. ¶10. (U) Ambassador Marsden said there is continuing mistrust between the NCP and the SPLM in South Kordofan, including disagreement over the security situation, with UNMIS and the (NCP-controlled) state government reporting that the number of incidents is declining, while the SPLM believes they are increasing. The NCP and SPLM also disagree about the level of SAF forces in the area. The WG was concerned by conditions it observed at Lake Abiad, where 1500 SPLA soldiers who have redeployed from the Nuba Mountains complained of lack of water and inadequate security for their families. The governor asked for support for the 6000 JIU soldiers in the state, who lack equipment and vehicles. On the positive side, she said that 300 SPLM police and 1500 recruits are being trained to integrate into the national police and urged that this process be accelerated. In summary, Ambassador Marsden said the visit demonstrated the need for continued vigilance. ¶11. (U) Dutch Ambassador Braakhuis (Coordinator of the Three Areas WG) commented that secuity issues need to be seen in a broader context. The risk of conflict can be reduced by delivering peace dividends to the population and making adequate preparations for the coming migration. He also urged that UNMIS Sector IV be proactive in undertaking confidence building and crisis management. Other Working Group Updates - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶12. (U) The Norwegian Ambassador noted that his country would be taking over as Coordinator of the Security WG from the UK at the conclusion of the current plenary meeting. CDA Fernandez reported that, with the SPLM absent, the Wealth Sharing Working Group held an informal meeting on November 10 and approved a work plan for the coming months. (Note: The SPLM had reviewed the work plan earlier and provided comments, which were included. End note.) As part of the work plan, the WG is placing a high priority on a meeting in Juba, to hear from the GoSS about its progress on implementing wealth-sharing provisions of the CPA and about capacity-building needed to meet CPA objectives of placing more southerners in Sudan's hydrocarbons sector and in the GNU Finance and Energy Ministries. Dutch Coordinator Braakhuis of the Three Areas WG reported that a draft work plan has been circulated for comment and they were awaiting comments. He also noted that the Parties had met to discuss the Abyei boundary dispute arbitration. A decision by the Court of Arbitration is likely in June or July 2009 and the parties should prepare for the announcement. KHARTOUM 00001779 003.2 OF 003 African Union Peace and Security Committee Meeting - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶13. (U) Under "Any Other Business," the African Union reported on the Peace and Security Committee meeting held in Addis the previous week, at which the NCP, SPLM, UN and AEC Chairman had briefed on CPA implementation. In an effort to raise its commitment to the CPA, the AU plans to meet again on the subject every six months. Chairman Plumbly commended the AU for its increased attention to the CPA. Comment - - - - ¶14. (SBU) Since the last AEC plenary, there was promising progress in electoral preparations. Not only was theQEC sworn in, but progress also was made in drafting the building block laws required. However, a tremendous amount of work remains to be done, and it remains to be seen whether either the NCP or the SPLM is committed to holding elections at all. The NCP remains unapologetic about using heavy-handed actions when it serves their interest, as demonstrated by their angry response to the CDA's balanced, behind-closed-doors criticism. ASQUINO