DECEMBER 7 DARFUR UPDATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001764 DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO ASEC SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: DECEMBER 7 DARFUR UPDATE REF: A) KHARTOUM 1588 B) KHARTOUM 1672 C) KHARTOUM 1654 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In the last push before the long Eid Al-Adha holiday (December 8-12),Darfur rebels, signatories to the DPA, and regional players all shared their views regarding the peace process, the potential for a ceasefire or monitoring mechanism for violence in Darfur, and the lack of DPA implementation. JEM spokesman Ahmed Hussein told POLOFF that he is more optimistic about the peace process following JEM meetings with the Chief Mediator and Qatari officals the last week of November. Center for Humanitarian Dialogue representatives said work on "the humanitarian equivalent of the ceasefire commission" is proceeding well and requested USG funding. Frustrated SLM/Minnawi (SLM/MM) representatives shared once more that there has been no real progress on DPA implementation or the delivery of needed funds promised by the NCP since September. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) The information below is based on meetings with Egyptian poloff Tamer Azzam, JEM spokesman Ahmed Hussein, CHD's Theo Murphy and Dennis McNamara, and SLM/MM's Ali Traio, Bushara Hassan, and Muhammad Tijani. All meetings and conversations occurred from December 4-6. HUMANITARIAN MONITORING MECHANISM - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (SBU) Dennis McNamara and Theo Murphy of the Center for Humanitarian Dialogue (CHD) told POLOFF on December 6 that their work is progressing well in establishing "the humanitarian equivalent of the ceasefire commission" (reftel a.) Murphy and McNamara said that they secured JEM and SLA/AW commitment to participate in this commission during their recent field visits with both rebel movements. (Note: Murphy and McNamara had just returned from week-long trip to some of Darfur's most remote and least visited areas along the Libyan-Sudanese border and in Jebel Marra. Both CHD representatives were noticeably energized by their trip. End Note.) Murphy and McNamara said that their commission will first focus on vehicle hijackings and later broaden its mission to investigate other humanitarian violations and acts of violence in Darfur. ¶4. (SBU) Murphy said that representatives from the Government of Sudan, UNAMID, the humanitarian community and the three major non-signatory movements (JEM, SLA/AW, and SLA Unity) would form an office in El-Fasher and send representatives to staff the commission. McNamara emphasized that the GoS has not given its commitment to guarantee the security of rebel representatives in El-Fasher - a particularly sensitive point given the GoS's expulsion of former AMIS CFC representatives from El-Fasher. Murphy and McNamara said it may be possible to establish this commission in less than two months, and emphasized that the commission will begin a dialogue between the GoS and rebels which "will hopefully feed into the peace process." McNamara requested USG support (in the range of 100,000-200,000 USD) to "just keep us running for the next couple of months" and said that the U.K. Embassy in Khartoum had already promised them additional funds (as long as CHD was able to find other additional donors.) (Note: POLOFF did not comment on the possibility of USG funding and said that he would pass along this request to Embassy leadership and Washington. End Note.) PEACE PROCESS - - - - - - - ¶5. (SBU) On December 5, JEM Spokesman Ahmed Hussein called poloff, stating that following his meetings in Doha, JEM representatives are more optimistic about Qatar's role, the work of the Chief Mediator, and the relationship between the two. (Comment: This represents a remarkable change from our last conversation with Hussein, reftel, where he strongly criticized the Chief Mediator and appeared deeply suspicious of Qatar's involvement. End Comment.) Hussein said that he was impressed by Qatar's Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Mahmoud and "confident in his abilities" and that he was pleased that Chief Mediator Bassole and the Qataris were working very closely. Hussein said that within two weeks JEM will draft and share their "clear position" on the Darfur peace process. Hussein said that JEM representatives would stop in Paris to meet with French Officials and laughed when asked if he would also meet with Abdul Wahid Al-Nur saying, "we would like to meet him, but he is very difficult and refuses to meet with almost everyone." Hussein appeared very skeptical about the possibility of a ceasefire at this stage saying, "UNAMID is interested in establishing a ceasefire mechanism, but this must come through negotiations with all parties, not just unilaterally from the GoS or UNAMID." ¶6. (SBU) In three separate meetings on December 5 and 6, SLM/MM KHARTOUM 00001764 002 OF 002 representatives in Khartoum uniformly criticized the direction of the peace process and called for independent SLM/MM representation in any negotiations. These officials stated that UNAMID, the Chief Mediator, Qatar, and the GOS have all snubbed SLM/MM as these parties discuss future negotiations. Head of DPA Implementation and Minnawi confidant, Muhammad Tijani, said that SLM/MM may be able to accept negotiations where the DPA is not explicitly referenced but used as a guiding principle. He said that both non-signatory and signatory rebels need to focus first on unification, and the SLM/MM can play a crucial role in this and in serving as an intermediary with the Government. ¶7. (SBU) Egyptian political Officer Tamer Azzam told POLOFF on December 4, that Egypt is growing more anxious about Bassole's neglect of important "regional players" (i.e. Libya and Egypt.) Azzam predicted that Libya could "easily spoil the process" and hinted that Egypt has also become frustrated with the direction of the peace process. Azzam said that there has been no progress in scheduling a meeting between JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim and senior GoS officials in Cairo (as President Mubarak offered in his November 12 visit to Khartoum, reftel c.) NO PROGRESS ON DPA - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (SBU) All representatives from the Sudan Liberation Movement of Minni Minnawi (SLM/MM) told poloffs that there has been no progress in implementation of the DPA in the last several weeks and appeared very cynical and pessimistic about the GoS ever honoring its agreements. Tijani called the GoS announcement in state press of funding for the compensation as "just propaganda." (Note: Sudanese state press, SUNA, published an article on December 6 saying that an account of 40 million SDP was opened at the Central Bank of Sudan for compensation fund. End Note.) Tijani said that the GoS "continues to play games, by saying that they don't have the right account numbers and throwing other bureaucratic impediments in our way." Additionally, the GoS has not yet dispersed the 10 million dollars promised as "seed money" for the DRDF, said SLM/MM representatives. Tijani said that some government representatives such as Darfur negotiator Atta Al-Manan have become personally "ashamed" by the NCP's inability to deliver on its promises. Head of SLM capacity building, Bushara Hassan, said that the NCP is intentionally trying to discredit SLM/MM by denying the movement its rightful funds, and said that the movement is "really hurting financially and materially." MP Ali Traio said that SLM/MM continues to try to improve its movement politically and militarily, and said that SLM/MM hopes to hold a large leadership conference (of up to 1,500 people) for the movement in Darfur in January. COMMENT - - - - ¶9. (SBU) JEM appears to be warming-up to the idea of negotiations in Qatar and the work of the Chief Mediator. While positive, the negativity of SLM/MM and Sudan's neighboring countries is troubling and the Mediation will need to court these important actors in the coming weeks. SLM/MM needs to learn how to inject itself into discussions about the future of Darfur, and should not wait for UNAMID, the Mediation, or even the GoS to take the first step. SLM/MM rightfully feels entitled, but could easily spoil any peace process, if it is not included from the start. There are many different (and potentially competing) ideas regarding monitoring and ceasefire mechanisms floating around. Although CHD has some of the best access and relationships with rebels on the ground, their proposal (which lacks specificity, especially as to how their committee will investigate humanitarian violations) should be coordinated with other ideas from UNAMID, the GOS, and the international community. In all these cases, the GOS continues to play its traditional negative role: playing off one side against another, promising but not delivering, playing for time, encouraging the naove and desperate optimism of regional and international actors always willing to give the NCP just one more chance. FERNANDEZ