"DIVIDING DARFUR'S ARABS FROM GOS WILL DRIVE THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001751 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG AND AF/C NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/2018 TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU SUBJECT: "DIVIDING DARFUR'S ARABS FROM GOS WILL DRIVE THE NCP CRAZY" REF: A. KHARTOUM 1450 ¶B. KHARTOUM 1360 ¶C. KHARTOUM 892 Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d ) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On December 3, Darfur Arab rebel leader Anwar Khater told CDA Fernandez that Darfur's Arabs have been marginalized, exploited by the Government of Sudan (GoS),and misrepresented by the international press. Khater emphatically stated that with support, Darfur's Arabs are ready to take an independent position from the GoS, something that "would drive this regime absolutely crazy." He noted that Khartoum's control of Darfur is actually quite weak and is almost entirely through buying off Darfur's unruly and alienated Arab tribes that Khartoum maintains its shaky control over the sprawling region. Khatir stated (as he has for the last six months, reftels b-c) that he will travel to Darfur this week, and claimed that he has built new alliances in the last month with Minni Minnawi, JEM/Peace Wing, and SLA/Abdul Wahid Al-Nur. END SUMMARY HISTORY OF KHATER'S INVOLVEMENT - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Khater, accompanied by fellow Darfur Arab Ahmed Muhammad Musa, opened the meeting with CDA Fernandez recounting the history of his involvement in the Darfur conflict. Khater (only now in his early 30's) stated that he was still a university student when the conflict started, and at that time, ethnic differences in the region were minimal. Khater said that Arabs have been more affected by the destructive actions of the GoS in Darfur and that he has always empathized more with the targeted and marginalized populations of Darfur than the GoS, and this impelled him to start a movement among Darfur's student population . (Note: Khater did not discus his rebel movement, the Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF,) in any detail. The movement first took up arms against the government in 2006, and staged several isolated attacks against the GoS in 2006 and 2007. Khatir has been described by leading Darfur experts such as Julie Flint as "Darfur's emerging Arab leader." After the GoS jailed and tortured him and several family members in late 2007, Khatir signed a deal with the GoS West Darfur intelligence chief in early 2008. Since then, Khatir has been in Khartoum waiting for the implementation of his deal with the GoS and "re-organizing his movement" as reported in reftel. He has told poloff in almost every meeting in 2008 that he would be returning to the field to reorganize his movement and return to the fight. End Note.) "NEED TO BREAK THE ARABS AWAY FROM THE GOS" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) Khater stated that Darfur needs a new authority that will empower all of Darfur's tribes and that Darfur's Arabs want to become truly independent from the GoS, carving out their own position and voice separate from the NCP. However, current Arab leadership in the region is inadequate, the GoS still is able to buy-off many Arabs by giving them material support, and many Arabs fear that they could become Darfur's next victims (should the power dynamic between Darfur's Arab and African population radically shift.) CDA Fernandez agreed that Darfur's Arab tribes need to take an independent position from the GoS, many in the West inaccurately see them as an extension or puppets of the Khartoum regime, and agreed that the disarmament of only one of Darfur's tribes could lead to greater instability and violence. Given the deep resentments and anger that have built up, "either all Darfur's tribes should have equal access to arms, or all tribes should be entirely disarmed, the latter is, of course, much preferable" said the CDA. Khater claimed that he is one of Darfur's new generation of Arab leaders who will be able to divide Darfur's Arabs from the Government and re-establish ties between the Arab and African tribes. Khater said that in order to do this, Darfur's Arabs will need significant support. CDA Fernandez said he was not able to promise anything, but pointed to successful USAID programming in Arab areas in Darfur (such as Ad-Daien,) saying "these have been very small-scale programs, but we have witnessed a great positive effect from this initial work." CDA agreed heartily that "political bidding" is one way of undermining the NCP's control over the regions, should someone wish to achieve that aim. KHARTOUM 00001751 002 OF 002 COORDINATION WITH OTHER MOVEMENTS AND ASSESSMENT OF NCP - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) Khater stated that he would travel to Zalingei on December 4 to re-establish his movement and coordination among all of Darfur's tribes. Khater claimed that within the last week he met Minni Minnawi in Khartoum and brokered an alliance between SLM/MM, his movement, and former JEM/Peace Wing leader Ismail Agbash. Khater said he has no relationship (or desire for one) with fellow Mahamid and infamous janjaweed leader Musa Hilal. Khater also gave a different interpretation on the reported division in the NCP, asserting that senior leaders in the ruling party are competing for Darfur's different tribes. According to Khater, Presidential Advisor Nafie Ali Nafie has attempted to gain influence by pursuing Darfur's Arabs, while Vice President Ali Osman Taha has focused on courting Minni Minnawi, the Zaghawa tribe, and other Africans. ¶5. (C) Khater said that while the GoS continues its courtship of particular individuals and tribes, it has created a virtual power vacuum in Darfur. "The GoS forces are only present in the state capital, and the government has virtually no permanent presence in almost all of Darfur," stated Khater. Khartoum rules Darfur, barely, through the Arab tribes but these tribes feel alienated and discriminated by Khartoum. He admitted that the regime has recently been stepping up efforts to mobilize the irregular and ill-disciplined Arab militias into SAF, the police and other formal units. He complained that Darfur's Arabs, who are mostly illiterate and uneducated, have few other options. Khater also briefly discussed the complex regional dynamic of the Darfur conflict, saying that Sudan's support for the Chadian opposition adds a particularly dangerous element for Darfur. COMMENT - - - - - ¶6. (C) Coming to the Embassy for the first time, the normally skittish, closed, and paranoid Khater was more open and forthcoming in the secure atmosphere of the CDA's office. Khater's is right - the Government of Sudan does fear losing the loyalty of Darfur's Arabs. If these lose them, the lose the entire region and the regime's ultimate nightmare is an alliance of the Darfuri Arabs with the Darfuri rebel groups - against Khartoum. USG courtship of Darfur's Arab tribes should be viewed as another tool to exert pressure on the GoS. Although Khater's analysis may be spot-on, we are less confident in the level of Khater's own current influence on the ground in Darfur (both among Darfur's Arabs and non-Arab tribes.) Although Khater has staged attacks on the government (and the Government has considered him enough of a threat to stage its own attacks on his positions and cut a deal with him,) Khater's desperate pleas for support, his inability to stick to his plans, and his failure to provide any evidence of his support leave us wondering whether Khater is currently a significant player in Darfur. His message though is echoed by almost all Darfuri Arab leaders, even ruthless warlords like Hilal (reftel a) and Juma Dagaloo: Khartoum's rule in Darfur is ruthless but fragile and relies on copious amounts of cash to keep restless local tribal magnates more or less loyal. FERNANDEZ