A/S FRAZER'S MEETINGS WITH NCP OFFICIALS

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 001682


DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2018
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: A/S FRAZER'S MEETINGS WITH NCP OFFICIALS

Classified By: CDA Alberto Fernandez, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: During a round-table meeting followed by a
dinner at the CDA's residence, several leading members of the
National Congress Party told A/S Frazer that the GNU has made
significant progress in implementing the Comprehensive Peace
Agreement (CPA),and pointed to Abyei as the only part of the
agreement that has yet to see progress. NCP officials openly
discussed secession of South Sudan, a subject rarely raised
by Sudanese in official meetings. With respect to Darfur,
these officials pledged their support for UNAMID, the
humanitarian community, and the UN/AU Chief Mediator Djibril
Bassole. NCP officials returned to the GoS's repeated
request and the U.S's alleged promise for Sudan's removal
from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list, and urged that the
US consider a "roadmap" to improved relations between the two
countries. The officials agreed that a plan is needed for
reconciliation with Darfuri IDs and explained why American
contractor PAE is unacceptable to the regime, but pledged to
"work quietly" with PAE to help UNAMID deploy. END SUMMARY.

PARTICIPANTS
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2. (U) The following individuals attended meetings for the
National Congress Party:
- Mutriff Siddiq, Undersecretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs
- Yahya Babiker Hussein, Joint National Transition Team
- Said Al-Khatib, Director, Center for Strategic Studies

US Participants:
- A/S Jendayi Frazer
- Special Assistant to the President on Africa Bobby Pittman
- SPG Director Tim Shortly
- CDA Alberto Fernandez
- Polchief and emboffs, notetakers

THE NEXT THREE MONTHS
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3. (C) Siddiq opened by thanking A/S Frazer for the U.S.'s
support of the CPA, the people of Darfur, and of UNAMID
deployment. A/S Frazer emphasized that the next three months
will help frame how the next U.S. President perceives Sudan,
and added: "I will be frank in telling you that that
perception is not positive right now." Al-Khatib replied
that the Government of Sudan (GoS) wants to improve the
U.S.-Sudanese relationship in the time left in the Bush
administration.

ABYEI: "THE ONLY UNFULFILLED PART OF THE COMPREHENSIVE PEACE
AGREEMENT"
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4. (C) Khatib then gave a glowing review of implementation
of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, the role of the U.S.
leading up to its signing, and the international community's
contribution to its Assessment and Evaluation Commission.
According to Khatib, the Abyei Protocol is the only section
of the CPA that remains unfulfilled. He said that currently
the issue of Abyei is "out of our hands" as "we have resorted
to arbitration and are waiting for an international body to
come out with its findings." Khatib acknowledged that
although the two parties may not be "enthusiastic" about the
results of arbitration, both groups need to prepare their
constituencies for disappointment to avert any disaster upon
the release of the findings. Khatib stated that the interim
agreement has established a provisional administration and a
"Unity Fund" for reconstruction of Abyei. Khatib stressed
that Abyei is not just a local or tribal issue, but is
important to the country as a whole. Babiker also lauded the
formation of the interim administration, the work of the
Joint Integrated Units ("an example for all of Sudan,") and
the establishment of the Unity Support Fund. Babiker stated
that donors have not fulfilled their pledges made at the
outset of the CPA, and that this has negatively impacted CPA
implementation. CDA Fernandez later reminded Babiker that
often the international community has offered support for
particular projects (such as outfitting the Joint Integrated
Units,) but that the GoS has often rejected these offers. He
added that it is regrettable that some of the U.S. assistance
for key areas such as Abyei was destroyed in the recent
fighting "even though we warned you that the fighting in
Abyei was going to break out." He added that although much
has been accomplished with the CPA, the NCP and SPLM need to
"close the deal" in areas where they have achieved progress
and "get some of these issues off the table."

ELECTIONS AND REFERENDUM
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5. (C) Khatib asserted that pending progress in elections,
Sudanese need to start discussing the referendum. "It would
not be the worst case scenario if the South decided to secede
with a clean break," noted Khatib. Continuing, he stated
that it is important for Sudan to work with "those who have
influence in this region," to make sure that "ugly scenarios"
are avoided as the referendum approaches. On elections,
Babiker added that the National Electoral Commission is close
to "finding a way out of its problems and put into practical
terms schedules for 2009." He noted that the important
legislation has been passed (specifically noting the
Political Parties Law and Electoral Law) and that problems
with the Political Parties Council will soon be resolved.
CDA Fernandez noted that the GoS's censorship and frequent
shutting-down of the Sudanese press is unacceptable and will
have a negative impact on elections, as "you cannot have free
and fair elections without a free press."

DARFUR
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6. (C) Sadiq said that the GoS views UNAMID deployment as
"a challenge for all of us" and thanked the U.S. for its
offer of air support. He said that "the majority of the
burden" for the slow deployment rests on the U.N. and that
the GoS has "honored our commitments" on visa, land, and TCC
issues. Sadiq stated that he expects the Humanitarian
Communique will be renewed at the end of the month. Sadiq
added that banditry and carjacking continues to plague
Darfur. He said that the U.S. promise of supporting GoS
convoy protection (possibly through WFP) had gone
unfulfilled, something that "was never a condition for us,
but would have certainly improved our performance." Sadiq
said that the Sudan People's Initiative (SPI) has been an
attempt to brainstorm and unify Sudanese political forces.
He said that the results of the SPI will be released on
November 12, and that this initiative will "merge" with the
Qatari initiative. Sadiq described the Qatari initiative as
an attempt to broaden the DPA and bring other rebel movements
to negotiations and promised the GoS's support for UN/AU
Chief Mediator Djibril Bassole. While not optimistic that
all movements will attend, Sadiq requested U.S. support in
publicly welcoming the initiative ("The U.K. and France have
welcomed it, but you have not") and putting pressure on the
rebels to attend. A/S Frazer later responded that although
the SPI appears to be a good initiative, it can also be
viewed as a "delay tactic" or "show" and that it is "up to
the GoS to prove that there is something there." She said it
is important to implement the September 19 deal between Minni
Minnawi and VP Taha in order to show the non-signatories that
there are rewards to a peace deal. With respect to Qatar, A/F
Frazer said that if it appears as though Qatar has become a
credible process, "I will publicly say it." (Note: Later
during the dinner at the CDA's residence, when asked what the
regime will do to ensure rebel participation at the Doha
talks, Siddiq dodged the question by saying that it would be
the job of Qatar and the Chief Mediator to engage the rebels,
though Siddiq did say that "contacts with rebels have
occurred." End note.)

STATE SPONSORS OF TERRORISM
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7. (C) Khatib then changed the topic and said that the U.S.
is "long overdue" in taking Sudan off the State Sponsors of
Terrorism list. Khatib cited specific examples from May 2003
and 2006 where State Department Officials promised that
"within weeks" Sudan would be lifted from the list. A/S
Frazer acknowledged that "there was a deal on the table" and
an "expectation that something would happen," but that in the
interim the conflict in Darfur broke out, and it became
legally impossible. A/S Frazer said that the U.S. Congress
now requires certification that the conflict in Darfur has
been resolved, placing another hurdle in the way of Sudan's
removal from the list. Special Assistant to the President
for African Affairs, Bobby Pittman, noted that the longer the
conflict in Darfur drags on, the more difficult removal from
the list becomes. He cited UNAMID deployment as one area
where the GOS can make a positive impact in the short term.
Babiker urged that the US and Sudan lay out a roadmap for
improved relations, defining what would be required to remove
Sudan from the list and to remove some or all sanctions.
Pittman replied that it will become more difficult over time,
partly due to additional legal requirements put in place by
Congress. A/F Frazer added that "it will be difficult if not
impossible to certify that Sudan is not a state sponsor of
terrorism in the time we have left."

EXPLANATION OF OBJECTIONS TO PAE
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8. (C) Mutriff Siddiq and Yahya Babiker joined A/S Frazer,
CDA and accompanying delegation at dinner at the CDA's
residence that evening to discuss bilateral sticking points
in a more informal setting. When asked by the CDA to clarify
their concerns regarding PAE's operations in Darfur, Siddiq
said the GOS finds it unfair that the US will not allow
American companies to do business in Sudan, but then makes an
exception for an exclusive contract with the UN. Siddiq said
that the GoS would like to allow PAE to be the first of many
U.S. companies to operate within Sudan, but the GoS must also
take into account the pressure that the U.S. exerts on its
economy through its sanctions policy. In addition, Siddiq
said the GoS has "intelligence concerns," which he intends to
discuss with the CDA at a later date, but he added, "We are
aware of the transition. We don't want to leave a vacuum,
and we will look the other way to allow PAE to finish its
work." Later in the dinner, Babiker used less nuanced
language to describe Sudan's position on PAE. "A whole
company cannot be a security issue, of course, but for us,
PAE is more of a symbol of reciprocity," he said, referring
to U.S. sanctions on Sudan. Pittman interjected that the GoS
could achieve significant progress by working for waivers for
specific companies, noting that this would be a faster way to
proceed given the complexity of sanctions legislation.
Babiker referenced June's negotiations with SE Williamson to
complain about the lack of progress, noting "the dialogue
went well, even to the extent that a document was ready to be
signed, but nothing happened."

AN APPEAL FOR IDPs
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9. (C) Siddiq and Babiker listened intently (albeit somewhat
stone-faced) while the delegation and CDA made a lengthy
appeal that the regime must find a way to solve Darfur by
addressing the needs of IDPs, in order to mend the regime's
tattered image in the West. When the CDA described Darfur's
2.7 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) as a threat
to Sudanese internal security, Siddiq was quick to downplay
the GoS's stake in the issue: "The future of Darfuri
leadership needs to think clearly; medium to longer-term, it
is a challenge to the Darfuris." The delegation cited
examples of internal reconciliation and peace-building from
their recent visits to Rwanda and eastern Congo, but
recognized the challenges. Siddiq said the GoS supports the
Qatari initiative in part because of the significant
resources that Qatar brings to the table for development and
compensation. "One of the incentives of the Qatari initiative
is that they will commit themselves to the solution."

SUDAN-CHAD RELATIONS
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10. (C) Regarding the relationship between Sudan and Chad,
Siddiq expressed disappointment that, "we were supposed to
exchange ambassadors tomorrow, but Chad postponed it again."
Siddiq said that at bilateral negotiations in Paris in
October, the French openly expressed their fear that the GoS
would support Chadian rebels for another assault on
N'djamena. Siddiq said the Sudanese had proposed that, for
the next three months, they would not permit Chadian rebels
to launch attacks from Sudanese territory if there were none
launched from Chad on Sudan, but Siddiq said the French were
cool to the idea. "They think Sudan can control the Chadian
rebels but Idriss cannot control the Sudanese rebels."

COMMENT
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11. (C) With the exception of Vice President Taha (meeting
reported septel) several senior members of the NCP were
traveling in the region during A/S Frazer's visit, including
Presidential Assistants Nafie ali Nafie and Mustafa Othman
Ismail, and NISS chief Salah Ghosh. That was unfortunate
because the NCP seemed genuinely interested in showcasing
progress they have made and receiving ideas on additional
steps. This transparent attempt to appear helpful and
proactive is of course framed by the looming possibility of
an ICC indictment, but the regime also is concerned about the
transition to the new US administration and hopes to lay the
groundwork for incentives in return for good behavior in
Darfur and on the CPA. It remains to be seen whether the
regime is prepared to make significant concessions on Darfur,
but if the government does lay out a credible list of options
along with an offer of a unilateral cease-fire in advance of
the Doha talks and actually sticks to it, it will be easier
for the international community to justify heavy pressure on
the rebels.


12. (C) Khatib's frank discussion of secession represents a
change from months ago when GoS and NCP officials were
reluctant to openly discuss this controversial issue. This
skilled NCP group wisely focused on the CPA in this meeting,
highlighting one area where the GoS has made some progress.
End comment.


13. (U) A/S Frazer's party was able to clear on this cable
before transmission.


FERNANDEZ