A/S FRAZER'S MEETING WITH FOREIGN MINISTER DENG

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001681

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG
NSC FOR HUDSON AND PITTMAN
DEPT PLEASE PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPKO UNSC SU
SUBJECT: A/S FRAZER'S MEETING WITH FOREIGN MINISTER DENG
ALOR

Classified By: CDA Alberto Fernandez for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

1 . (C) Summary: During their November 3 meeting, A/S
Frazer and FM Deng Alor reviewed progress in resolving issues
of concern to the U.S., including the Darfur conflict and CPA
implementation. Alor agreed that UNAMID deployment is &a
work in progress,8 and said that the government expects
recommendations from the Sudan People,s Initiative (SPI)
soon. He said that parliament will have enacted laws needed
to hold elections by the end of 2008, and suggested that the
elections could be held as early as March-April, despite
expected technical difficulties. End Summary.


2. (C) On November 3, Assistant Secretary for African
Affairs Jendayi Frazer met with Sudanese Foreign Minister
Deng Alor. Accompanying A/S Frazer were NSC/AF Pittman, CDA
Fernandez and Sudan Programs Group Director Timothy Shortley.
FM Alor is a Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM)
member in the coalition Government of National Unity with the
National Congress Party (NCP). A/S Frazer began by saying
she had just come from meeting with Vice President Ali Osman
Taha (septel). She noted they had followed up on the issues
Taha had discussed with Secretary Rice during their meeting
at the UNGA in September, including UNAMID deployment, the
Darfur peace process, Abyei Roadmap implementation, and the
Darfur humanitarian situation.


3. (C) First, on the deployment of UNAMID, she stated that
there has been some progress since September, but there
continue to be obstacles. The biggest problems are with DPKO
in New York, rather than in Sudan. FM Alor agreed that
UNAMID is &a work in progress.8 Second, on the Darfur
political process, A/S Frazer said there has been less
progress. She encouraged the Government of National Unity
(GNU) to develop a package of incentives to entice all of the
rebel groups to enter into negotiations. She noted that the
NCP,s isolation of DPA signatory Minni Minawi within the GNU
does not send a positive signal to other rebel groups.


4. (C) FM Alor noted that the GNU now is waiting for the
recommendations from the first session of the SPI, which
should be ready in the coming week. According to Alor, the
recommendations will reflect a consensus on how Sudan should
respond to the threat of an ICC indictment of President
Bashir. He noted that new countries are stepping forward,
ready to support the Qatar process. He admitted that
&everything depends on us,8 but remarked that &the
Government does not have a clear position.8 He continued
that there is only a limited window between now and Christmas
to develop a clear program to resolve the Darfur conflict.
In January, the ICC is likely to hand down its decision on an
indictment against Bashir, and it will be too late. A/S
Frazer agreed that the GNU needs to demonstrate a sense of
urgency and take decisive action. FM Alor replied that the
power to take the necessary actions lies with the NCP, and
not with his own SPLM.


5. (C) Next, A/S Frazer said she and Taha had reviewed Abyei
roadmap implementation. She said the U.S. is concerned that
the new Abyei Administration is unable to carry out its
responsibilities under the Roadmap because it lacks the
necessary resources. Although the Presidency approved the
Administration three weeks ago, it still is not receiving its
share of oil revenues mandated by the Roadmap. CDA Fernandez
commented that VP Taha had assured them that funding for the
Abyei Administration will be resolved within a few days. The
CDA warned that if this does not happen and the problem drags
on, the U.S. will question the NCP,s real intent. He noted
that the same thing happened with the SAF troops stationed in
Difra, an issue the NCP had promised to solve quickly, but
one that continues to remain unresolved.


6. (C) The CDA continued that while the SAF unit remains in
Difra, the Joint Integrated Unit (JIU) and the Joint
Integrated Police Unit (JIPU) established in Abyei under the
roadmap are underfunded by the GNU and lack the resources
needed to carrying out their responsibilities. Alor agreed
noting that the JIU is using vehicles supplied by the SPLA,
rather than the GNU. He commented that he doubted that they
ever will be funded. He noted that the decision to release
the funds needed by the JIU and JIPU lies with the
Presidency.


KHARTOUM 00001681 002 OF 002



7. (C) The Foreign Minister said that while possible ICC
action has brought pressure on Sudan, so far the GNU has
failed to act. He noted again that other countries have
offered to assist Sudan in resolving its problems, mentioning
Egypt and Saudi Arabia. A/S Frazer said that VP Taha had
promised the government will follow-up to resolve outstanding
problems.


8. (C) AS Frazer said she also had raised problems related
to CPA implementation with VP Taha, including demarcation of
the North-South border and the 2009 elections. On the
elections, FM Alor noted that the National Assembly will
remain in session through December, focusing on the
legislation needed to carry out next year,s elections. By
the end of this session it should adopt all of the laws
required. Alor said that appointment of the National
Election Commission remains problematic because every party
is pressing for its own, partisan candidates, making it very
difficult to name an unbiased Commission.


9. (C) Asked about the timing of elections, Alor said that
elections cannot be held successfully as originally scheduled
in July, due to the rainy season. He said that the GNU is
considering moving the elections up to March or April
instead. The other option, to delay elections until after
the rainy season, would push them back too far. SPG Director
Shortley noted that technical experts do not believe that
elections can be held as early as spring 2009; that there are
too many complex preparations that need to be carried out
first. CDA Fernandez said that there is other legislation
required before the elections can be carried out, for example
a new press law. He noted that restrictions on press freedom
have been increasing recently. FM Alor commented that the
GNU is only now implementing things that should have been
done two-three years ago under the CPA. A/S Frazer warned of
the danger of a series of gradual delays accumulating,
pushing the elections back until the referendum on Southern
independence scheduled for 2011. FM Alor noted that there
are some people in the South who say &wait for 2011,8 which
is a code that they plan to separate, without bothering with
national elections first. He agreed that decisiveness is
required to get the elections on track. He asserted that the
SPLM, and some in the NCP, are pushing to hold the elections
on time, but other NCP elements are resisting.


10. (C) Comment: FM Alor appeared detached and disengaged
when commenting on many of the issues discussed, reflecting
the anomalous position of the SPLM in the GNU. (Alor also
appeared somewhat reluctant to speak openly in front of the
(northern) MFA notetakers.) The SPLM feels cut out from
decision-making on key issues, such as Darfur, by its partner
the NCP. In response it often seems to throw up its hands and
withdraw in disgust. Despite this frustration, the SPLM
continues to participate actively in the GNU, and Alor
himself has carried out a number of important missions for
President Bashir, including attempts at rallying
international support for peace efforts in Darfur and
encouraging western engagement with the regime. Support from
the SPLM within the GNU is especially critical now, as the
regime attempts to show unity as well as progress on the CPA
and Darfur, in the hope of avoiding an ICC indictment. End
Comment.


11. (U) A/S Frazer,s party had the opportunity to review
this message before transmission.
FERNANDEZ