A/S FRAZER'S MEETING WITH FOREIGN MINISTER DENG

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001681 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG NSC FOR HUDSON AND PITTMAN DEPT PLEASE PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2013 TAGS: PREL PGOV KPKO UNSC SU SUBJECT: A/S FRAZER'S MEETING WITH FOREIGN MINISTER DENG ALOR Classified By: CDA Alberto Fernandez for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 1 . (C) Summary: During their November 3 meeting, A/S Frazer and FM Deng Alor reviewed progress in resolving issues of concern to the U.S., including the Darfur conflict and CPA implementation. Alor agreed that UNAMID deployment is &a work in progress,8 and said that the government expects recommendations from the Sudan People,s Initiative (SPI) soon. He said that parliament will have enacted laws needed to hold elections by the end of 2008, and suggested that the elections could be held as early as March-April, despite expected technical difficulties. End Summary. ¶2. (C) On November 3, Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer met with Sudanese Foreign Minister Deng Alor. Accompanying A/S Frazer were NSC/AF Pittman, CDA Fernandez and Sudan Programs Group Director Timothy Shortley. FM Alor is a Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) member in the coalition Government of National Unity with the National Congress Party (NCP). A/S Frazer began by saying she had just come from meeting with Vice President Ali Osman Taha (septel). She noted they had followed up on the issues Taha had discussed with Secretary Rice during their meeting at the UNGA in September, including UNAMID deployment, the Darfur peace process, Abyei Roadmap implementation, and the Darfur humanitarian situation. ¶3. (C) First, on the deployment of UNAMID, she stated that there has been some progress since September, but there continue to be obstacles. The biggest problems are with DPKO in New York, rather than in Sudan. FM Alor agreed that UNAMID is &a work in progress.8 Second, on the Darfur political process, A/S Frazer said there has been less progress. She encouraged the Government of National Unity (GNU) to develop a package of incentives to entice all of the rebel groups to enter into negotiations. She noted that the NCP,s isolation of DPA signatory Minni Minawi within the GNU does not send a positive signal to other rebel groups. ¶4. (C) FM Alor noted that the GNU now is waiting for the recommendations from the first session of the SPI, which should be ready in the coming week. According to Alor, the recommendations will reflect a consensus on how Sudan should respond to the threat of an ICC indictment of President Bashir. He noted that new countries are stepping forward, ready to support the Qatar process. He admitted that &everything depends on us,8 but remarked that &the Government does not have a clear position.8 He continued that there is only a limited window between now and Christmas to develop a clear program to resolve the Darfur conflict. In January, the ICC is likely to hand down its decision on an indictment against Bashir, and it will be too late. A/S Frazer agreed that the GNU needs to demonstrate a sense of urgency and take decisive action. FM Alor replied that the power to take the necessary actions lies with the NCP, and not with his own SPLM. ¶5. (C) Next, A/S Frazer said she and Taha had reviewed Abyei roadmap implementation. She said the U.S. is concerned that the new Abyei Administration is unable to carry out its responsibilities under the Roadmap because it lacks the necessary resources. Although the Presidency approved the Administration three weeks ago, it still is not receiving its share of oil revenues mandated by the Roadmap. CDA Fernandez commented that VP Taha had assured them that funding for the Abyei Administration will be resolved within a few days. The CDA warned that if this does not happen and the problem drags on, the U.S. will question the NCP,s real intent. He noted that the same thing happened with the SAF troops stationed in Difra, an issue the NCP had promised to solve quickly, but one that continues to remain unresolved. ¶6. (C) The CDA continued that while the SAF unit remains in Difra, the Joint Integrated Unit (JIU) and the Joint Integrated Police Unit (JIPU) established in Abyei under the roadmap are underfunded by the GNU and lack the resources needed to carrying out their responsibilities. Alor agreed noting that the JIU is using vehicles supplied by the SPLA, rather than the GNU. He commented that he doubted that they ever will be funded. He noted that the decision to release the funds needed by the JIU and JIPU lies with the Presidency. KHARTOUM 00001681 002 OF 002 ¶7. (C) The Foreign Minister said that while possible ICC action has brought pressure on Sudan, so far the GNU has failed to act. He noted again that other countries have offered to assist Sudan in resolving its problems, mentioning Egypt and Saudi Arabia. A/S Frazer said that VP Taha had promised the government will follow-up to resolve outstanding problems. ¶8. (C) AS Frazer said she also had raised problems related to CPA implementation with VP Taha, including demarcation of the North-South border and the 2009 elections. On the elections, FM Alor noted that the National Assembly will remain in session through December, focusing on the legislation needed to carry out next year,s elections. By the end of this session it should adopt all of the laws required. Alor said that appointment of the National Election Commission remains problematic because every party is pressing for its own, partisan candidates, making it very difficult to name an unbiased Commission. ¶9. (C) Asked about the timing of elections, Alor said that elections cannot be held successfully as originally scheduled in July, due to the rainy season. He said that the GNU is considering moving the elections up to March or April instead. The other option, to delay elections until after the rainy season, would push them back too far. SPG Director Shortley noted that technical experts do not believe that elections can be held as early as spring 2009; that there are too many complex preparations that need to be carried out first. CDA Fernandez said that there is other legislation required before the elections can be carried out, for example a new press law. He noted that restrictions on press freedom have been increasing recently. FM Alor commented that the GNU is only now implementing things that should have been done two-three years ago under the CPA. A/S Frazer warned of the danger of a series of gradual delays accumulating, pushing the elections back until the referendum on Southern independence scheduled for 2011. FM Alor noted that there are some people in the South who say &wait for 2011,8 which is a code that they plan to separate, without bothering with national elections first. He agreed that decisiveness is required to get the elections on track. He asserted that the SPLM, and some in the NCP, are pushing to hold the elections on time, but other NCP elements are resisting. ¶10. (C) Comment: FM Alor appeared detached and disengaged when commenting on many of the issues discussed, reflecting the anomalous position of the SPLM in the GNU. (Alor also appeared somewhat reluctant to speak openly in front of the (northern) MFA notetakers.) The SPLM feels cut out from decision-making on key issues, such as Darfur, by its partner the NCP. In response it often seems to throw up its hands and withdraw in disgust. Despite this frustration, the SPLM continues to participate actively in the GNU, and Alor himself has carried out a number of important missions for President Bashir, including attempts at rallying international support for peace efforts in Darfur and encouraging western engagement with the regime. Support from the SPLM within the GNU is especially critical now, as the regime attempts to show unity as well as progress on the CPA and Darfur, in the hope of avoiding an ICC indictment. End Comment. ¶11. (U) A/S Frazer,s party had the opportunity to review this message before transmission. FERNANDEZ