DARFUR'S REBELS REJECT THE SPI AND BASHIR'S PROMISES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 001672 DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, AF/C NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: DARFUR'S REBELS REJECT THE SPI AND BASHIR'S PROMISES ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Following the November 12 closing session of the Sudan People's Initiative (SPI),Darfur non-signatory rebels uniformly rejected President Omar Al-Bashir's announcement of a unilateral ceasefire and his proposed development package for Darfur. SLA/Abdul Wahid (SLA/AW) and SLA/Unity field commanders claimed that the Government of Sudan (GoS) has already broken the ceasefire through ongoing operations and widespread deployment throughout Darfur. JEM contacts emphasized that a meaningful ceasefire will only result through negotiations, and said that the UN/AU's Chief Mediator has failed so far, creating a "political vacuum." END SUMMARY JUSTICE AND EQUALITY MOVEMENT - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) London-based JEM Spokesman Ahmed Hussein told poloff on November 13 that he dismisses any unilateral statements made by the government in public forums as meaningless. "We've been through this time and time again," he said, recalling how the last unconditional ceasefire announced by the government before the Sirte talks was broken only days later. Hussein emphasized that progress must come not through unilateral declarations in the media, but rather at the negotiating table. "We need some sort of framework agreement to move forward," he said, "but Bassole is not moving." Clearly frustrated with what he viewed as the Joint Chief Mediator's inaction, Hussein accused him of putting JEM in a "critical position" of trying to respond to a myriad of initiatives from unauthorized and often dubious parties. "The Qataris, the Egyptians, the Libyans-none of them is mandated to mediate this crisis," he said, while questioning the Qataris' capacity and impartiality. "But at the end of the day, if there's a vacuum, you can't force others not to fill it." He stated that JEM was seeking to contact Bassole for an update on his plans. ¶3. (U) On November 9, even before the end of the SPI, JEM released a press statement on its website (sudanjem.com) downplaying the significance of the SPI and emphasizing the need for the "conflicting parties" to be the focus of future talks. The statement indirectly references the SPI, saying that JEM welcomes the involvement of the people of Darfur in finding a solution, but �0A;that in other conflict situations, it is typical for only the conflicting parties to participate in negotiations. The statement says that JEM rejects negotiations in which dozens of "so-called factions and movements" sit alongside JEM and the Government. [Note: Since its May 10, 2008 assault on Omdurman, JEM has argued that it stands above other movements and should be recognized as such in future negotiations. End Note.] The statement goes on to say that JEM has not made a decision regarding Qatar and that it is open to bilateral discussions with the GoS. (Full text of the translated press release is in para 9.) SLA ABDUL WAHID AL-NUR - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (SBU) SLM/AW contacts speaking by satellite phone separately expressed their distrust of the SPI and President Bashir's unilateral ceasefire. SLA/AW Field Commanders Abdulrahman Gadura and Muhammad Terada both told emboffs that they dismiss the SPI as only a National Congress Party exercise, excluding both non-signatories and the real people of Darfur. Both claimed that the GoS has not yet fully stopped its military operations near Jebel Marra. Gadura emphasized that all parties of the conflict, not just the government, should declare the ceasefire. Terada, who said he was "in transit to a mission," stated that Bashir's development program announced at the SPI was inappropriate, exclaiming "How dare this government speak of development while the blood [of the people of Darfur] is still wet!" ¶5. (SBU) SLA/AW Northern Field Commander Suliman Marjan also thought that discussion of compensation and development is premature. "Compensation is a real demand for us but it should only come after signing a peace deal with non-signatories," stated Marjan. According to Marjan, the GoS bombed the village of Al-Helif on November 12 ("the exact same day as Bashir's so-called ceasefire.") Government helicopters, claimed Marjan, continue to fly over SLA/AW areas of control in North Darfur, and "so we know that the Government is not serious about this ceasefire." Muhammad Abubakr, a SLA/AW student leader based in Khartoum, also expressed skepticism about the SPI and President Bashir's promises, saying, "The GoS is saying these things but it never fulfills what it promises." SLA UNITY - - - - - ¶6. (SBU) SLA/Unity's Abdalla Yahia told emboff on November 13 that threatening GoS military deployment and movement has recently increased all over Darfur. Yahia claimed that the Popular Defense KHARTOUM 00001672 002 OF 003 Force has been mobilized, stating, "if the Government is really serious, all these movements on the ground should immediately stop." Yahia speculated that the Government is staging a political show while "continuing to push its military agenda." Yahia said that Bashir's promise of compensation and development is just for "media consumption," and that he has no faith in more promises from Bashir. Ali Karbino (one of SLA/Unity's more rogue-like field commanders) also released a press statement online saying that he is not interested in Bashir's ceasefire, as "our military operations will continue all over the region to protect the displaced and civilians." Karbino stated that his movement will boycott the Qatari initiative because it has not addressed the regional aspect of the Darfur conflict. COMMENT - - - - ¶7. (SBU) SLA/AW's claim that the GoS has already broken the ceasefire seems to be true. However, many field commanders have distorted facts on the ground and confused routine GoS and UNAMID movements as acts of aggression. The regime has no monopoly on duplicity when it comes to military action in Darfur. Even though we question some of the rebels' claims, their skepticism about this GoS ceasefire is fully justified, as the GoS has made many such promises throughout the conflict and prior to negotiations (most recently leading up to Sirte in late 2007.) ¶8. (SBU) JEM's pointed criticism of the Joint Mediation Support Team (JMST) and Chief Mediator Djibril Bassole is concerning, especially as almost all rebel movements now have accused the Chief Mediator of neglect, inaction, and indecision. Although it appears as though Bassole is progressing quietly and behind the scenes, these perceptions (even if they are incorrect) may derail the peace process. This is unfortunate as the Chief Mediator only appears to utilize (and even inform) only one or two key staff members of his plans. There is no reason for the JMST not to conduct daily outreach to the all-too important rebel leadership and their field commanders. Even if the Chief Mediator is not personally in touch with the rebels on a daily or weekly basis, he can make more use of the media to keep them and others informed, assert his authority and control of the process, and inject his leadership into the very unwieldy Darfur peace process. There is no substitute to spending time in the field with the rebel movements, cultivating on the ground relationships and knowledge bases, something which none of the past or present mediators, special envoys and other "drive by international diplomats" seem to want to do. ¶9. (U) Begin translated text from sudanjem.com: PRESS RELEASE Announcement Clarifying JEM position regarding the Qatari Initiative Print, radio, and television media have reported that the Sudanese Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) has refused the Qatari Initiative and that it seeks direct negotiations with government of Sudan. Regarding this confusion, the movement would like to clarify the following: (1) JEM has not taken any position, neither positive nor negative regarding the Qatari Initiative. The issue is under review by the movement's institutions. After consultations are completed on this issue, the movement will release [its decision on the Qatari Initiative.] (2) The movement has affirmed to the Qatari delegation that it does not trust the Arab League under its current leadership, and does not accept any initiative of which the Arab League is a part. (3) The Movement has clarified to the visiting delegation that it is happy to hear the opinion of the people of Darfur and that we will take the peoples' opinions to the negotiations. However we do not see the possibility of solving the Sudan problem in Darfur through conferences where everyone is invited. The settlement could be reached through direct talks between the parties of the conflict like peace talks everywhere else. (4) The movement has not announced at any time that it refused UN mediation, the role of neighboring countries, or the international community to create peace in Sudan. However, the movement has refused sitting at a table where the government of Sudan is one part and at the other end are tens of so-called movements and factions. This kind of negotiation would never lead to a fruitful peace accepted by the people of Darfur and Sudan. KHARTOUM 00001672 003 OF 003 In order to avoid such an ugly situation, the movement would never refuse to negotiate with government through its own ways. The Government could [also] negotiate with whomever it likes in different parallel talks, so as to not prolong the suffering of our people in the IDP and refugee camps. Our objective is to move people towards unity and to enable them to enter peace negotiations under a unilateral negotiation platform and through one negotiation team. Ahmed Hussein Adam Media Secretary and the Movement's Spokesman London November 9th 2008 FERNANDEZ