SLM/MM AND NCP CLOSER TO AGREEMENT ON DPA FUNDING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001649 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AND AF/SPG NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2018 TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU SUBJECT: SLM/MM AND NCP CLOSER TO AGREEMENT ON DPA FUNDING AND DPA WILL BE BASIS FOR FUTURE TALKS REF: A. KHARTOUM 1626 ¶B. KHARTOUM 1612 Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d ) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On November 11 and 12, senior SLM/Minnawi (SLM/MM) and NCP officials separately told CDA Fernandez and poloffs that both parties are closer to agreement on outstanding DPA financial issues, though each party provided a different portrayal of the specific deal. Atta Al-Manan, a former governor of South Darfur and the key broker of the September 19 Minnawi-Taha agreement, also stated that the NCP accepts the DPA as the basis for future negotiations, the special status of Minni Minnawi in these discussions, and Minnawi's key role meeting with non-signatory rebel movements on behalf of the GoS. Al-Manan expects negotiations will begin in Doha after the Eid Al-Adha holiday December 8. END SUMMARY. SLM/MM: PROGRESS ON FINANCIAL ISSUES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) On November 11, Muhammad Tijani, SLM/MM's head of the DPA implementation committee, told CDA Fernandez and poloffs that SLM/MM has agreed to the NCP's latest offer on outstanding financial issues of the DPA. SLM/MM will accept a water project for the three state capitals (El-Geneina, Nyala, and EL-Fasher) valued at $114 million USD and other undesignated health, education, and development projects worth $136 million USD. NCP: $200 MILLION BY THE END OF THE MONTH - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) Al-Manan, having just returned from a visit to Minni Minnawi in the rural North Darfur village of Um Baro, also told CDA Fernandez and poloffs on November 12 that there has been agreement on outstanding DPA financial issues. In addition to the water project ("of over $100 million") the NCP agreed to allocate $20 million to a compensation fund, and another $10 million as seed money to the DRDF. Al-Manan said that other projects and funding will soon be announced, "bringing the total to approximately $200 million by the end of the month." CDA Fernandez stated that financial issues are at the heart of the ongoing dispute between SLM/MM and the NCP, and the Darfur conflict in general, and that if this money is delivered as promised, the GoS deserves to highlight this positive development. Al-Manan agreed and stated that Darfuris have greatly valued compensation as a form of conflict resolution. "Even if we do not meet our commitments 100% we need to indicate to the Darfuris that compensation is an important part of the solution for Darfur," stated Al-Manan. (Note: Al-Manan did not specifically mention the sum of $136 million mentioned by Tijani. End Note) DPA FUNDING INTEGRATED INTO SPI? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) On November 12 at the closing session of the SPI, President Bashir announced a series of development and compensation projects (reported septel). For example, among other financial commitments, Bashir pledged 73 million Sudanese pounds for a water project in Nyala, Fashir, and Geneina, the completion of 685 wells in Darfur, and 40 million Sudanese Pounds designated for collective compensation in 2009. Upon hearing this announcement, poloff again spoke with SLM/MM's Tijani who stated that he "believes" Bashir's announced water project is entirely separate from the water project promised to SLM/MM. Tijani also added that SLM/MM has not/not reached agreement with the NCP on particular amounts for a compensation fund nor seed money for the DRDF. MINNAWI WORKING ON BEHALF OF THE GOS IN THE FIELD - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) Al-Manan stated that Minnawi's presence in the field had surprisingly brought more stability to Darfur. According to Al-Manan, since Minnawi's return to Um Baro, IDPs have started to return, the market has re-opened, and the village as a whole is normalizing. Al-Manan said that the security arrangements agreement between SAF and SLM/MM represents a "breakthrough" and has helped improve overall relations between SLM/MM and SAF. He noted that this had been a "pleasant surprise" as some in the NCP had been initially unhappy with Minnawi's long sojourn in the field since June. CDA Fernandez agreed that security in some areas of Darfur KHARTOUM 00001649 002 OF 002 have improved with Minnawi's return. Despite these positive developments Al-Manan said that Minnawi's movement still suffers from internal division and that the NCP would like to help strengthen the SLM. Al-Manan specifically noted that the NCP can help mediate between former Secretary General Mustafa Tirab and Minnawi (Comment: This strikes us as an awkward move, as Minnawi previously labeled Tirab as the NCP's agent inside SLM. End comment.) He noted that several former rebel commanders (from JEM/CL, SLA/Unity and from Minni's forces) were in talks to join the peace process through Minnawi and the NCP would be supportive of this. NCP STILL WORKING ON TURABI - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) According to Al-Manan, senior NCP officials sat with Popular Congress Party leader Hassan Al-Turabi and attempted to convince him about the merits of the SPI and future negotiations. Al-Manan stated that Turabi said he looks favorably upon Qatar's involvement, admitted close ties with some leaders of the Justice and Equality Movement, and stated that he would like to play a role in bringing peace to Darfur. Turabi is not ready to commit to the SPI "because of his personal struggle" with those in the NCP who purged him. FUTURE NEGOTIATIONS: DPA IS BASIS AND MINNAWI IS SPECIAL - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) Al-Manan praised the Sudan People's Initiative and said that it will provide the basis for future negotiations. According to Al-Manan, the NCP recognizes that the DPA must be the basis for future negotiations and that Minni Minnawi will need to have a special status at future discussions. Al-Manan said that he expects negotiations will start in Doha after the Eid Al-Adha holiday around December 8. Al-Manan inquired why the U.S. has not been wholly supportive of or enthusiastic about Qatar. CDA Fernandez replied that the U.S. wants the next round of negotiations to succeed but sees a difference between process and results, there is also an unfortunate long history of uncritical support by Arab regimes for Khartoum that makes us skeptical. Also the UN/AU's Chief Mediator should be in charge of the process, and that the GoS will need to unilaterally take some concrete steps towards confidence building in order to bring the rebels to the table. If these elements are in place and there has been adequate time for preparation, then the U.S. could quickly warm up to the role that Qatar can play, stated CDA Fernandez. He added that a superficial agreement with rebel leaders that doesn't change the dynamic of 3 million IDPs living in squalid camps for the better will fail. Al-Manan emphasized that leading up to the negotiations, the Darfur-Darfur Dialogue and Consultation led by Abdul Muhammad will play an important role in bringing the results of the SPI to Darfuris. COMMENT - - - - - ¶8. (C) Although both the SLM/MM and NCP now have reported some progress on outstanding DPA financial issues, the lack of specificity, lack of correspondence between their reports, and lack of integration with the Sudan People's Initiative is troubling. Although we applaud the current optimism of both parties, at this point it appears as though the NCP and SLM/MM have only agreed on $114 million for water projects in the state capitals, and even that may be "adopted" by the SPI. The timing of this breakthrough is also suspect, occurring over almost one month after the deal should have been completed and just in time for the much-touted SPI. Post has and will continue to urge SLM/MM representatives to seek specificity and written documentation of all commitments made by the NCP. Al-Manan's description of the DPA as the foundation for future negotiations and the centrality of Minnawi is a positive development, but it could make it more difficult to bring non-signatory rebels to the table. Even if this is part of their strategy, it would make more sense for the NCP not to publicly announce this, as Abdul Wahid Al-Nur and Khalil Ibrahim view Minnawi as one more rival for a senior position in the GoS and have strongly criticized the DPA publicly, making it difficult if not impossible for them to accept the DPA as a basis for negotiations. FERNANDEZ