SLM/MM SECRETARY GENERAL ON SPI, QATAR, AND PARTY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001645 DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: SLM/MM SECRETARY GENERAL ON SPI, QATAR, AND PARTY RE-ORGANIZATION REF: A) KHARTOUM 1580 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On November 9, Ali Hussein Dausa, the new Secretary General of the Sudan Liberation Movement of Minni Minnawi (SLM/MM,) told CDA Fernandez of his recent efforts to improve and re-organize the movement. Dausa shared his skepticism about the Sudan People's Initiative (SPI) and the desire for independent SLM/MM representation in future peace negotiations. Dausa also stated that division within the National Congress Party is more complicated than a simple personality clash between leading NCP members. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) The following members of SLM/MM visited CDA Fernandez at the U.S. Embassy on November 9: - Ali Hussein Dausa, SLM/MM Secretary General - Ali Traio, SLM/MM MP - Busina Abdalla, SLM/MM Social Committee - Abu Obeida Al-Khalifa, SLM/MM State Minister of Environment - Ahmed Abdallah Abdallah - Eisa Omar - Ahmed Abdalla - Mustafa Jumeil RE-ORGANIZING SLM/MM - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (SBU) Ali Hussein Dausa opened the meeting by conveying congratulations for President-elect Obama and passing a letter to be delivered to him from Minni Minnawi (septel). Dausa then provided a lengthy review of recent SLM/MM activity since he took up his position as Secretary General. (Note: In a large public celebration on October 24, SLM Chairman Minni Minnawi froze the participation of Secretary General Mustafa Tirab and named Ali Hussein Dausa as the new acting Secretary General, reftel. End Note.) Dausa said that SLM/MM recently conducted a full-day media workshop for some of its members on November 3. Under Dausa's leadership SLM/MM will also conduct a financial review of its operations and seek to become more transparent with its budget and expenditure. Dausa reported that he will focus on the internal cohesion of the movement and improving the information flow between SLM/MM's central offices in Khartoum and the threestates of Darfur. SUDAN PEOPLE'S INITIATIVE AND QATAR - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (SBU) Dausa stated that SLM/MM has participated in and cooperated with the Sudan People's Initiative. While he thought the SPI's open forum for discussion was positive, some of its debates were less than constructive. The issue of establishing one region for all of Darfur, stated Dausa, was particularly contentious. Dausa said that SLM/MM believes that a referendum on the issue of one state is the only solution to this debate, and yet, some members of the NCP have already moved away from that. "It is very difficult for us to participate in anything where the DPA is not the basis of our discussion," stated Dausa. Dausa emphasized that SLM/MM should have its own representatives independent of the Government of National Unity in any future negotiations (unlike what the NCP insisted on in Libya in October 2007). Dausa said that SLM/MM is concerned that "Qatar will end up canceling the DPA rather than adopting it as the basis for future negotiations." In this scenario, one moribund Darfur accord (the 2006 DPA) is replaced by another, grander but stillborn agreement secured by Qatari money but never implemented. LITTLE PROGRESS ON THE DPA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (SBU) SLM/MM representatives reported that there has been little progress in DPA implementation since the September 19 agreement between Minnawi and Vice President Taha. The NCP has only agreed to implement the easiest and most superficial elements of the DPA. Most importantly the DPA's outstanding financial obligations remain unfulfilled in addition to legal and constitutional changes. They said that contrary to the DPA and the September 19 agreement, the NCP has also not accepted more SLM/MM representatives into senior state, federal, and diplomatic positions, stated Dausa. SLM/MM representatives added that it is becoming increasingly clear that the NCP's overall position is against further implementation of the DPA. Despite what he described as a lack of DPA progress and his skepticism over the SPI, Dausa expressed optimism about SLM/MM's future, asserting that SLM is one of the few parties that can change the political landscape of northern Sudan. DIVISION AND WEAKNESS IN THE NCP? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - KHARTOUM 00001645 002 OF 002 ¶6. (SBU) Dausa and his colleagues stated that division within the National Congress Party (NCP) is more complex than a personality conflict between Vice President Taha and Presidential Assistant Nafie Ali Nafie. In general, Nafie appears to be against SLM/MM and the DPA and Taha is more amenable toward both. However, each of these NCP leaders has his own agenda. These different agendas directly compete with SLM/MM interests. Abdalla asserted that irrespective of these particular leaders, Sudan is a still a police state run by military leaders basing their authority on a distorted Islamic agenda. Dausa said that Sudan's financial troubles (particularly affected by the plummeting price of oil) are at least partially responsible for division in the GoS over the DPA. The threat of an ICC indictment against Bashir, a looming financial crisis, and CPA timelines for elections and democratic transformation are all factors affecting SLM/MM and the status of the DPA, stated Dausa, and could lead to a major crisis in Sudan in early 2009, an eventuality that the regime fears. COMMENT - - - - ¶7. (SBU) Dausa's rise to the position of Secretary General comes at a particularly difficult time for SLM/MM. Dausa deserves to be commended for reaching out to women leaders within SLM/MM, recognizing the need to improve SLM/MM's public relations, and attempting to reorganize the movement. However, it will be nothing short of a miracle should this soft-spoken individual succeed in transforming the divided, disorganized and severely weakened SLM/MM into a real political force. Dausa's call for independent (or at least some sort of special status) SLM/MM representation at the next round of negotiations (something noticeably absent at the failed Sirte negotiations of 2007) is a point well-taken. It is something we support and will raise with representatives of the UN/AU's Joint Mediation Support Team and with the NCP. If the DPA ceases to exist following the negotiation of a new agreement, the SLM/MM should indeed have some sort of special status at the talks. FERNANDEZ