SALAH GHOSH TO ENGAGE DIRECTLY WITH KEY DARFUR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001640 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, AF/C NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/10/2018 TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU SUBJECT: SALAH GHOSH TO ENGAGE DIRECTLY WITH KEY DARFUR REBELS REF: KHARTOUM 1597 Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) Chief Salah Ghosh told UN/AU Darfur Chief Mediator Djibril Bassole that he will begin to meet quietly with key Darfur rebels in advance of peace talks in Doha, according to Bassole's senior staff. The first meeting will be with JEM's Khalil Ibrahim and his senior negotiators, but the two sides have not agreed on a venue. (Note: JEM has not confirmed this information, but the movement is highly effective at operational security, and the few individuals aware of the meeting would likely deny it at this point. End note.) Ghosh also plans to meet with SLM Abdul Wahid al Nur (if he will accept a meeting) and SLA/Unity Abdallah Yehia, and considers SLM Minni Minawi (even though he is technically already in the government) to be the key fourth "rebel" leader. Ghosh reportedly told Bassole that the NCP recognizes that it must make some accommodation with the rebels in advance of the talks in order to secure their participation. Such confidence building measures have also been a key American demand (reftel). Bassole urged Ghosh to link some of the rebels' political objectives (or at least a statement of principles) to a proposed cease-fire in advance of the Doha talks. ¶2. (C) In a separate meeting, Vice President Ali Osman Taha, who has slowly usurped the Darfur file in recent months from hard-line Presidential Advisor Nafie Ali Nafie, told Bassole that he will lead the GNU at peace talks in Doha, and confirmed that the government is focused principally on the three key rebel groups plus Minawi. Taha told Bassole that the NCP understands that the Qatari initiative, in order to be successful, will not be a one-time meeting, but rather a lengthy process to which the ruling party must be committed if it is to have any chance of success. Taha told Bassole that the NCP is not yet ready to offer its position on the various issues discussed at the Sudan People's Initiative, preferring instead to negotiate these points with the rebels once the SPI has announced the matrix of options (on points of disagreement) and principles (on points of agreement) later this week. ¶3. (C) The Sudan People's Initiative is expected to conclude November 12 in Khartoum with a formal ceremony and a presentation of the final document summarizing the outcomes of the initiative. However it is not yet clear when the Qatar initiative will commence. Bassole's staff reported that the Qatari Emir remains eager to convene a meeting before the end of November; however, Qatari Minister of State Mahmoud reportedly now appears to recognize that a hastily-arranged conference has little chance of achieving significant rebel participation and could set the Qatar initiative on an early path toward failure. Bassole has spoken with Mahmoud by telephone since meeting with him two weeks ago in Doha, but for now Bassole would prefer to engage separately with the armed movements rather than in tandem with Mahmoud, as it appears to him and his team that the Qataris are offering direct financial incentives (aka "bribes") to ensure rebel participation, and Bassole does not want to be a part of these initial transactions. ¶4. (C) Bassole's staff repeated earlier complaints that UNAMID is not being helpful with the political process. DDDC Chief Abdul Mohammed continues to pursue his own agenda with the support of JSR Adada, and has been meeting with rebels on his own without coordinating his message with Bassole. Bassole's staff also reported that the Egyptians have been decidedly cool toward the Qatar initiative, and have expressed significant doubt that it will be a success. The Egyptians have reportedly told Bassole that they would have preferred a regional initiative (even if it were in Libya) as Qatar in their view doesn't have adequate background on Sudan or Darfur in order to successfully navigate the talks. ¶5. (C) Comment: The active participation of Taha and Ghosh in the Darfur peace process is an interesting development, underscoring how this alliance of (often ruthless) pragmatists is attempting to work in tandem to find a solution on Darfur and (not coincidentally) cement their hold on power within the ruling NCP cupola. Both are more pragmatic and flexible than Presidential Assistant Nafie Ali Nafie and have the credibility to be able to secure a deal. However Taha is correct that this will be a process, one that KHARTOUM 00001640 002 OF 002 may take years. Such a lengthy, drawn out process favors the regime's skill at deception, delay and diplomacy. An alliance may be forming between Taha and Ghosh, as Taha is the presumptive heir to President Bashir, and both Taha and Ghosh are from the northern Shaygiyya tribe. Taha has the Islamic credentials to take the NCP forward, and is viewed favorably by many northerners (and southerners too) for having secured the CPA with the South. Meanwhile Ghosh, a "brutal pragmatist" as we have often reported, has consolidated his power over the security and military apparatus of the state by expanding the ranks of the NISS paramilitary forces and ensuring that his troops are the best-equipped and trained (they defended Khartoum from the JEM attack in May while the military was ordered to stay in their barracks.) It is still too early to speculate on what will happen after the ICC arrest warrant presumably will be issued against President Bashir. In any case, this apparent alliance between Taha and Ghosh bears close attention, as many observers have suggested that Taha has engineered a palace coup in slow-motion and is merely waiting for the chips to fall. It's difficult to imagine Bashir moving aside quickly, but there is recognition both within and outside the NCP that Taha has the credentials to lead, and there was visible relief in the party when he recently took on the Darfur file for the SPI, and was sent to New York to represent the regime at the UNGA. FERNANDEZ