NO PROGRESS IN DPA IMPLEMENTATION IN LAST TWO WEEKS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001612 DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: NO PROGRESS IN DPA IMPLEMENTATION IN LAST TWO WEEKS ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Contacts from the Sudan Liberation Movement of Minni Minnawi told poloffs November 2 that there has been no progress in implementation of the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) in the last two weeks, and limited overall progress since the September 19 deal between Minnawi and Vice President Taha. The GoS continues to stall on allocating money to the Darfur Reconstruction and Development Fund. Frustration within the movement is rising. END SUMMARY. NO PROGRESS AT ALL IN LAST 2 WEEKS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) On November 2, SLM/MM General Counsel and the Transitional Darfur Regional Administration (TDRA) Legal Secretary, Abdulaziz Sam, told poloff that there has been absolutely no progress in implementation of the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) in the last two weeks. Sam said that the travel of Atta Al-Mannan (one of the NCP's key brokers of the September 19 Minnawi-Taha agreement) has negatively impacted the negotiations. Sam also stated that it is possible that some NCP hardliners within the NCP intentionally sent Al-Mannan outside of Sudan to slow the peace process. Sam said that the others who worked with Al-Mannan on the peace deal "are worthless" and hinted that he sees NCP hardliners winning the battle to marginalize SLM/MM again. COMMON REFRAIN: WHERE'S THE MONEY? -------------- ¶3. (SBU) SLM/MM still has not received any money for the TDRA or the DRDF. This remains the primary point of contention with the GoS, stated Sam. He added that the GoS has focused on bureaucratic impediments, legal minutiae, and the wording of the DPA to delay funding the DRDF. For example, stated Sam, GoS officials told SLM/MM representatives that before funding is allocated to the DRDF a comprehensive development plan should be completed at both the state and federal levels. Sam also noted that SLM/MM and GoS officials continue to dispute particular development projects, the employment of national construction companies, and the percentage of funds delivered in seed money vs. in-kind development. Sam added that DRDF Chairman Abduljabar Dausa (also SLM/MM's former political chief) traveled to London approximately two weeks ago, and that he will not return to Sudan unless the DRDF is funded. "THIS IS A POLITICAL DECISION." - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (SBU) Sam acknowledged that the problem of funding the DRDF is not one of mechanics, details, or bureaucracy, but rather a political decision by the NCP. "They [the NCP] have told us [in the SLM/MM] that you will take the money we give to the DRDF, and go buy weapons in preparation for the next war," stated Sam. Sam added that the NCP also fears that if they deliver money to SLM/MM, Minnawi may become less flexible in his willingness to accept a new Darfur Peace deal with non-signatory movements in the next round of negotiations. LITTLE PROGRESS IN OTHER AREAS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (SBU) Although there has not been direct conflict between SLM/MM and GoS forces in Darfur since September 19, Sam characterized GoS-SLM/MM military cooperation as "slow." With respect to bringing the DPA into the national constitution, Sam said that the National Constitutional Review Commission has held up the process, and that he was less optimistic that the DPA would be legally recognized in the next month. (Note: This represents a change from our last meeting with Sam two weeks ago when he was very confident that the DPA would be quickly adopted into the interim constitution. End Note.) Sam said that although there has been agreement on expanding Darfuri participation in the national civil service and senior diplomatic and government positions, SLM/MM has been slow to provide lists of names and put pressure on their NCP interlocutors. MINNAWI'S PLANS - - - - - - - - ¶6. (SBU) Minnawi returned to Darfur on October 30 after participating in the Sudan People's Initiative, reported Sam. The GoS authorized Minnawi to pursue outreach to non-signatory rebel movements. While in Darfur, Minnawi will attempt to meet with JEM, SLA-Unity, and URF. According to Sam, Minnawi realizes that the Government "used" him for their propaganda campaign, and that he received little in return. Sam said that Minnawi will travel back and forth between his camps in North Darfur as well as to and from El-Fasher and Khartoum for the foreseeable future. Sam added Minnawi recognizes that he needs to balance his attention on political matters in El-Fasher and Khartoum as well as focusing on his military organization. (Note: Minnawi is scheduled to speak KHARTOUM 00001612 002 OF 002 with A/S Frazer on October 3 via satellite phone. End Note) COMMENT - - - - - ¶7. (SBU) Compared to our last meeting with Sam two weeks ago, there was a dramatic change in his tone, demeanor, and outlook. Increasingly frustrated and pessimistic, Sam may be representative of SLM/MM as a whole. The NCP's tactic of focusing on the details and bureaucracy of a peace deal (while neglecting inconvenient passages, the timeframe of its implementation, and its overall spirit) has been all too evident in the DPA, CPA, and ESPA. Given its weak position, SLM/MM will have to continue to cooperate with the NCP while also recognizing its supporting role in the latter's political strategy. FERNANDEZ