SPI WILL BE ONE OF MANY FAILED PEACE INITIATIVES,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001602

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2018
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: SPI WILL BE ONE OF MANY FAILED PEACE INITIATIVES,
SAYS SEASONED PARTICIPANT

Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d
)


1. (C) SUMMARY: On October 29, veteran Darfur administrator
and member of the Sudan People's Initiative, Tayyeb Muktar,
told CDA Fernandez that the Sudan People's Initiative will
likely become just one of many failed Darfur peace
initiatives. Muktar also asserted that the once peaceful Fur
tribe is slowly transforming into an aggressive and
militarized ethnic group focused on revenge. Muktar also
discussed the role of Chad and Libya in Darfur (including his
personal account of serving as police commissioner in Darfur
and arresting Idris Deby.) Muktar also strongly asserted
that now is not the time for the voluntary return of Darfur's
IDPs to their original lands and villages. END SUMMARY.

PESSIMISTIC ABOUT SPI AND QATAR
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2. (C) Former long serving police commissioner in Darfur
and (the now dissolved) West Kordofan state, retired General
Tayyeb Muktar opened his meeting with CDA Fernandez stating
that he was quite pessimistic about both the Sudan People's
Initiative (SPI) and potential talks in Qatar. Muktar stated
that he has directly participated in over 86 different local
reconciliation conferences on Darfur and attended more than
one hundred. "We sit and talk and come up with good ideas
and nothing ever comes out of them," said Muktar. There is a
vicious cycle of a crisis, followed by a reconciliation on
paper, followed by no implementation of the peace agreement.
According to Muktar, no IDP representatives have participated
in the Sudan People's Initiative, only the Darfuri and
Khartoum elites. "These elites and intellectuals are
actually part of the problem, as they will not allow the real
people of Darfur to participate and gain power," claimed
Muktar. This disconnect between the elite and IDPS is so
great, said Muktar, that many of the SPI's participants are
not "even able to enter the IDP camps to see what is
happening as the people would drive them away." With respect
to Qatar, Muktar claimed "Qatar is running after Darfur.
They want to urgently solve the problem but they do not
actually know what the problem is." Darfur is complicated,
but it could have been solved years ago, claimed Muktar,
recounting that he told senior Sudanese politicians years ago
with the Arabic proverb, "You need to address the problem now
before the ignorant take it from the knowledgeable."

NOW IS NOT THE TIME FOR RECONCILIATION
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3. (C) Muktar stated that he is not even optimistic about
the work of his own SPI subcommittee, the "Reconciliation and
Social Fabric" group where he serves as rapporteur. Muktar
said the composition of this subcommittee represents the
problem of Darfur, with prominent representatives from the
three major battling tribes: Shartai Ibrahim Abdalla of the
Fur tribe (Vice-Chair); notorious janjaweed commander Musa
Hilal of the Arab Mahamid tribe (Vice-Chair); and Minni
Minnawi of the Zaghawa (Chairman). Despite his participation
in this committee, Muktar believes that now is not the time
to focus on reconciliation between Darfur's tribes. The
conflict in Darfur has dragged on for over six years, said
Muktar, and the people of Darfur have now developed deeply
rooted grievances against differing tribes. Because of
this, in addition to the lack of a single leader in the
region, Darfur will be more difficult to solve than the
North-South civil war, claimed Muktar.

THE PEACEFUL FUR TRIBE IS SLOWLY CHANGING
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4. (C) Muktar emphasized that in contrast to the aggressive
and well-armed Zaghawa, the Fur used to be a largely peaceful
people. However, the six years of conflict in Darfur have
started to change the Fur. For example, in a recent visit to
Kalma IDP camp, Muktar encountered a ten-year old Fur boy
whose only dream was to buy a weapon and avenge the death of
his father. Muktar said that given his 25-plus years of
experience with the largely peaceful people of Darfur, he was
shocked by this example, and others where revenge (for rape,
murder, destruction, and displacement of family members) has
become the primary motivation for many young Fur. The people
of Kalma camp told Muktar that the IDPS of Kalma camp have
now counted the fifth agricultural season that they have
spent in IDP camps. Without work, land, or optimism, the
previously peaceful Fur IDPS have now started to consider
violence as one option to restore their land, pride, and
honor. This is an issue which can be addressed but it cannot

KHARTOUM 00001602 002 OF 002


be done with the incremental gradualism the regime is using
in its approach to Darfur.

FOREIGN INFLUENCE
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5. (C) Foreign influence and an influx of weapons into
Darfur have also negatively impacted Darfur. As police
commissioner, Muktar recalled arresting Idris Deby for
illegally entering Sudan, and how later Sudanese politicians
offered him a choice of exile in North Sudan or invading
Chad. Muktar also recounted a conversation with Libyan
President Qadaffi who directly told him "Darfur is a
strategic area for us and we need to have a presence."
Muktar claimed that the Libyans are responsible for a large
part of the militarization and spread of weapons in Darfur.
As an example of the previously sleepy and peaceful nature of
Darfur, Muktar fondly recalled that in the 1970's as police
commissioner, there was one period of over three months where
there was not a single reported crime in all of Darfur. "It
is sad to see Darfur then and now," stated Muktar. He
described the region as now made up of cities, IDP camps and
the rest is a no man's land with roving rebels, gangs and
militias.

VOLUNTARY RETURN OF IDPS IS CURRENTLY NOT AN OPTION
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6. (C) Muktar stated that the Sudanese government's fixation
on the return of IDPs to their original villages is not
appropriate at this time. The GoS has done nothing to
rebuild the villages it bombed or destroyed with its proxy
forces. For example, Muktar stated that he recently visited
fourteen former villages (now ghost towns) surrounding Nyala,
and "although they were originally destroyed in 2003, it
looked like they had just been destroyed yesterday with the
ashes still in place." The difficulty of return is
compounded by the fact that heavily armed Arab tribes from
West Africa have now settled on land previously occupied by
the IDPs, said Muktar. Muktar claimed that the NCP's focus
on return of IDPs is "not logical" and that the Government's
policies in Darfur have led to a forced urbanization of a
previously dispersed and rural population.

COMMENT
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7. (C) Like a talkative grandfather telling wandering and
entertaining war stories, Muktar provided some fascinating
background on the conflict in Darfur. His pessimism stems
from the dashed expectations of over one hundred failed local
peace initiatives. Although we hope that some good will come
out of the SPI and Qatar, for now, one cannot help but
predict that Muktar's pessimism could be right again. The
problem is not coming to some sort of agreement in Doha
between rebels and the Khartoum regime. That is doable. The
problem is how to mend the rent social fabric of Darfur which
has been so torn by five years of destructive NCP policies.
Even if the regime is now, at the 11th hour, sincere in
wanting to "solve Darfur" (and the jury is still out on
whether they are sincere),mollifying 2.7 million angry,
alienated IDPs will not be easy, even if Qatar opens up its
coffers. However, some targeted interventions by the US with
the Qataris and with the GOS could yet help steer the
proposed Qatar initiative in a positive direction to try to
at least ameliorate the situation on the ground and reverse
the trend towards even greater violence and unrest in Darfur.
FERNANDEZ