CHADIAN REBELS CONTINUE SEARCH FOR A LEADER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001593 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG AND AF/C NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2018 TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU SUBJECT: CHADIAN REBELS CONTINUE SEARCH FOR A LEADER REF: A. KHARTOUM 1574 ¶B. KHARTOUM 1558 Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d ) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On October 27, Abaker Tollimi, a UFDD Khartoum-based representative and second in command to Mahamat Nouri confirmed that the Chadian rebel leadership is under tremendous pressure from the Government of Sudan to unite, but internal division, personal ambition and a struggle for power make unification difficult. While mulling a negotiated settlement, the rebel movements still keep the option of a military attack on the table. Although the rebels do not plan to attack N,Djamena or Abeche, they will look for a pretext to seize three Eastern Chadian cities (Adre, Gos Beida and Biltine) to demonstrate their strength to Deby, and "for the international community to take us seriously". END SUMMARY. FRANCO-SUDANESE COLLABORATION: ABDULWAHID AL-NUR IN EXCHANGE FOR CHADIAN REBELS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Abaker Tollimi stated he believes France and Sudan brokered a deal focusing on the Chadian opposition last month. Presidential advisors Dr. Mustafa Ismail and Nafie Ali Nafie were in France for two weeks at the end of September and Tollimi claimed that the discussions centered on Chadian opposition and French/Sudan collaboration. He speculated that the French promised to bring SLM leader Abdulwahid Al-Nur to the table in exchange for GOS pressure on Chadian rebels to negotiate with Chadian President Deby. He observed the sudden pressure to unify and the threat to cut material support to Chadian opposition all occurred after Nafie's and Ismail,s return from France. He reiterated that "everyone is interested that Deby leave". The Sudanese are impatient for Deby,s departure and will do whatever it takes at this point, asserted Tollimi. ¶3. (C) Tollimi then spoke of a possible agreement among the UN, EU, Libya and Sudan on solving the Chad-Sudan conflict, starting with a solution for Darfur. According to Tollimi, the EU asked France to stop its military support to Deby, and France asked Sudan to stop supporting the Chadian rebels and instead force them to negotiate. Tollimi believes if these two conditions are fulfilled, the UN would appoint a chief mediator, an African of a certain standing, to spearhead actual negotiations. Tollimi added these negotiations should culminate in a government of national unity, the nomination of a vice president from the opposition to coordinate elections during the transitional period, and the deployment of a 6000 strong UN force to Chad. UNIFICATION - SO CLOSE YET SO FAR AWAY - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) Tollimi lamented that the rebel leaders, struggle for power and personal ambitions remain a significant obstacle to unification. The Sudanese government proposed Mahamat Nouri assume the leadership role, but reported that he lacked popular support among other leaders. Tollimi noted most still blame him for not compromising after the February attack on N,Djamena. Furthermore, others are uneasy with Nouri due to his being Ex-Chadian dictator Hissene Habre,s cousin, and having served in the latter's unpopular regime for 8 years. Some rebels anticipate a possible war crimes indictment against Nouri, further complicating his selection. (Note: Hissene Habre has been indicted and is exiled in Senegal. End note.) Tollimi claimed the GOS dismissed the other four leaders as unsuitable. Ahmed Soubiane is related to Sudan's Janjaweed militias, and does not want a coalition. Timane Erdimi is seen as too close to Deby as he was his chief of staff for 8 years and was involved in a financial scandal. Adam Hasaballah and Abdulwahid Aboud "do not have what it takes to lead a country". Tollimi also says the Sudanese are against a Zaghawa or Arab leading Chad, and would prefer someone from the Goran ethnic group. (Note: the Gorans are a non-Arabic ethnic group mainly in northern Chad. End note.) Despite these difficulties, Tollimi thinks the Chadian opposition has made some progress. The movements are drafting a joint politico-military manifesto to be signed by all five leaders in a few days. He promised he would share this document with Post once it is finalized. WHO WILL BE THE LEADER? TOLLIMI? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - KHARTOUM 00001593 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) According to Tollimi, the Sudanese suggested that he take up leadership of the Chadian opposition. Tollimi acknowledged that this puts him in a very difficult position with his own boss, Nouri. Tollimi admitted that he disagrees with Nouri,s opposition to negotiations and elections, especially as both of these processes will take time (Nouri is already 73 years old) and will not guarantee Nouri's rise to power. Nouri wants to be president at all cost "even if it,s for 3 months!" during the transitional period, claimed Tollimi. Tollimi said he believes in the democratic transformation of Chad, and one of his objectives is to create a political party to compete in future elections. He confided he might split from Nouri if the latter continues his intransigence and refuses negotiations. For now, he reaffirmed his commitment and will continue to pressure Nouri to choose the option of dialogue. Tollimi speculated on a plausible scenario where no movements, leader is chosen, but everyone agrees to rally behind a political leader. He sees two figures as possibilities for the transition period: Fidel Moungar, elected prime minister of the transitional parliament during the 1993 national conference and exiled in France; or Ngarlegy Yorongar, a prominent political opponent and parliamentary deputy who fled after the February attack and is also exiled in France (Yorongar is a Goran like Tollimi.) The two ex-patriates supposedly held a conference in Paris on October 25 and have been contacting the rebel leaders. NEGOTIATIONS AND MILITARY OPTIONS IS AN ACCEPTABLE RECIPE FOR CHAD - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (C) Tollimi said the Chadian rebels have been neglected by the international community. Though he believes in a negotiated political settlement, he also thinks the movements should be ready at all times for military action to show Deby they count and "make the international community take them seriously". He said they will plan to seize Adre, Gos Beida and Biltine. When told such an unprovoked attack might undermine their credibility in the eye of the international community, the soft-spoken Tollimi smiled slyly and replied "Deby will always provoke us, and we will use that pretext". Tollimi conceded, however, that the reason the international community does not take them seriously is because they are divided and the Chadian rebels, have accordingly responded by keeping a low profile. COMMENT - - - - - ¶7. (C) Tollimi seemed frustrated with the lack of progress in uniting behind a single leader. Contrary to past meetings, he did not press for U.S. involvement, or belabor the lack of international community assistance, but concentrated on internal rebel dynamics and potential leaders. His frankness about his leadership and the possibility of defection further indicate the long road and arduous task of Chadian rebel unification. When asked about the relative popularity and leadership ability of Chadian rebels, CHD,s Theo Murphy recently told us that Tollimi would be at the top of any list. It appears as though the GoS may agree with Murphy,s assessment, and Tollimi himself may be thinking more seriously about this as a possibility. Post will continue to monitor any new developments on the leadership question. FERNANDEZ