MINNAWI ON HIS RETURN TO KHARTOUM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001528 DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: MINNAWI ON HIS RETURN TO KHARTOUM ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On October 15, Minnawi met poloff in El-Fasher stating that he will travel to Khartoum for the start of the Sudan People's Initiative, but that he will spend less than 24 hours in the capital and only "inject my own views on the process and the DPA and then return to the field." Minnawi said negotiations with the GoS over the September 19 agreement with Taha have recently focused on a sum of approximately $200 million for the Transitional Darfur Regional Authority and the Darfur Reconstruction and Development Fund. Minnawi stated that GoS officials are waiting for the return of Finance Minister Awad Al-Jaz before any decision will be made, and that the question remains whether this sum will be paid in cash or in development projects. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) On October 14, UNAMID provided air transport for Minnawi from north Darfur to El-Fasher. On October 15 at approximately 9:00, poloff visited Minnawi at a tightly-guarded Transitional Darfur Regional Authority facility. Approximately four "technicals" (Toyota Landcruisers) with mounted machine guns, and 50 armed men wearing battle headdresses and assorted uniforms surrounded the facility. SHOW ME THE MONEY - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (SBU) Minnawi stated that the most recent negotiations with the NCP have focused on funding of the TDRA and the DRDF. Minnawi added VP Taha personally guaranteed that $200 million USD will be allocated to the DRDF. Minnawi stated that Taha and other NCP interlocutors claimed that the final approval for this decision must come from Minister of Finance Awad Al-Jaz who returned to Sudan from the U.S. the evening of October 15. Poloff observed that a decision of this magnitude should not depend on one individual (i.e. Al-Jaz,) and that if anyone should have final say, it should be President Bashir. Minnawi responded, "Bashir will never take the decision to spend money on Darfur and so it will have to come from someone else." "The Gos has the money, but they are using it all for development in the North where Bashir and the rest of the NCP's leadership is from," added Minnawi. ¶4. (SBU) Minnawi also stated that the two sides have still not reached agreement as to what percentage of this money will be paid in cash as "seed money for the fund," and what part will be paid in development projects. Minnawi stated that NCP officials have debated the actual terminology (and translations) in the DPA regarding whether the allocation to the DRDF should be in cash or development. Minnawi stated that while progress has been made on recognizing the DPA in the interim constitution and on Darfuri representation in the civil service, the financial issues remain the most contentious and important issues for his movement. JOINT MILITARY COMMITTEE MOU - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (SBU) Minni called the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed by the NCP and SLM/MM Joint Military Committee (JMC) on October 13 "positive." The agreement, signed by SLA's Jumma Haggar and SAF's Mohamed Abdul Muneim Al-Zain focuses on security of Darfur's roads, opening roads that have been closed, supporting UNAMID deployment, coordination of the parties' movements, and forming a joint committee for exploring these and other issues. (Note: A full translation of the agreement is being translated and will be sent to AF/SPG and the Office of the SE as soon as possible. End Note.) Contrary to reports from one of UNAMID's political officers, Minnawi said that no agreement has been reached between the two parties on salaries or non-military logistical support for Minnawi's fighters. SUDAN PEOPLE'S INITIATIVE AND FEAR FOR SAFETY - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (SBU) Minnawi admitted that he had "no idea" what will take place on the opening day of the Sudan People's Initiative on October ¶16. The initiative does not adequately consult Darfuris, and even neglects NCP cronies in the region such as North Darfur Governor Yousif Kibir, stated Minnawi. Minnawi stated that he will travel to Khartoum for less than 24 hours, that he will "only give my input," and then return as quickly to the field as possible. Minnawi said that he fears for his personal safety in El-Fasher, and to a greater degree in Khartoum, and said that he will bring as many bodyguards with him as UNAMID will allow. He also discretely asked whether the U.S. might be able to help with his security in Khartoum. CDA Fernandez spoke to Minnawi the evening of October 15 immediately before his departure from El Fasher. Minni reiterated his skepticism of both the Khartoum and possible Doha meetings. He will follow up with CDA on October 16. Pro-regime newspapers on October 16 hailed Minnawi's return to Khartoum and highlighted his alleged praise of President Bashir's "recent steps" towards peace in Darfur. KHARTOUM 00001528 002 OF 002 DIVISION IN NCP - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (SBU) Like other SLM/MM interlocutors Minnawi stated that two adversarial groups have developed within the NCP, one led by VP Taha determined to work with SLM/MM and the other, which prefers a military solution. Minnawi stated that Taha called him two days ago and admitted that Minnawi's cooperation is needed at this crucial time, "as we are facing division on this [in the NCP] and you need to help this succeed." Minnawi stated that Defense Minister Abdelrahim Hussein is particularly against funding the DRDF without SLM/MM demobilization or their integration of his forces into SAF. TIMELINE - - - - - ¶8. (SBU) Minnawi said his permanent return to Khartoum will depend on implementation of the DPA and the GoS's commitment not to undermine it with another agreement. He stated that Taha promised significant DPA implementation in a month, and "as our agreement was on the 19th of September, that only gives them four days." ¶9. (SBU) Minnawi also discussed non-signatory rebel movement military plans, coordination across rebel movements, and his relationship with non-signatories, to be reported septel in forthcoming cable on security and rebel alliances. COMMENT - - - - ¶10. (SBU) Compared to SLM/MM leaders working on DPA implementation in Khartoum (such as Muhammad Tijani, Muhammad Suliman, and Abdel Aziz Sam who recently met with SE Williamson,) Minnawi appeared less optimistic about this last-ditch effort to salvage the DPA. Despite the press play, Minnawi was more dismissive of the Sudan People's Initiative, and is undoubtedly attending the session to push his own agenda, and once again, call for the implementation of the DPA. FERNANDEZ