SUDAN PEOPLE'S INITIATIVE SET TO START OCTOBER 16,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KHARTOUM 001521

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
TRIPOLI FOR CANDINO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/13/2018
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: SUDAN PEOPLE'S INITIATIVE SET TO START OCTOBER 16,
DOHA PEACE TALKS POSSIBLY BY THE END OF THE MONTH

REF: A. KHARTOUM 1510

B. KHARTOUM 1504

C. KHARTOUM 1490

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Classified By: CDA a.i. Mark Asquino, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) The Sudan People's Initiative is scheduled to begin
October 16 in Khartoum with speeches by President Bashir and
other officials including First Vice President Salva Kiir,
who has decided to attend, but will deliver a "tough message"
on Darfur. Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) leader and Darfur
Peace Agreement (DPA) signatory Minni Minawi, still in Darfur
but the fourth-ranking member of the GNU, appears poised to
attend. However, before formally committing to be there, he
is holding out for funding for the Transitional Darfur
Regional Authority (TDRA),as agreed with Vice President Taha
in El Fasher last month. UN/AU Chief Mediator Bassole
considered not attending to avoid associating himself with
the Arab League's attempt to prevent an ICC indictment of
President Bashir, but later reconsidered. He is now meeting
with SYG Ban ki Moon in Geneva to discuss his (Bassole's)
role in the Qatar initiative. No major rebel groups will
attend; SLA/U reported that GOS attacks against its positions
east of Muhajaria continue. The Qatari Foreign Minister and
possibly the Prime Minister will arrive in Khartoum tomorrow
to attend the opening ceremony, along with Foreign Ministers
from several Arab and African countries. CDA Fernandez along
with other senior, Khartoum-based diplomats, have been
invited and will attend this opening session. Following the
latter, there will be a week-long conference in Kenana,
Gezira State with the goal of producing a draft proposal on
ending the Darfur crisis. The NCP believes that the peace
talks in Doha, Qatar could begin as soon as October 28.


2. (C) See paragraph 10 for recommendations on possible US
interventions to encourage rebel participation at Doha and
with the government of Qatar to make the most of the Doha
talks. Although the talks began as an attempt to save
President Bashir from a looming ICC indictment, they could
very well serve to advance discussions on Darfur. Although
such an outcome is far from certain, they could also produce
positive results, depending on the concessions the regime is
willing to make.

THE SUDAN PEOPLE'S INITIATIVE
--------------


3. (C) NCP strategist Sayed Al-Khateeb told poloffs October
13 that the GoS will launch the Sudan People's Initiative
(SPI) on Darfur on October 16 (ref A). Although the opening
of the conference will take place in Khartoum, participants
will move to Kenana in Gezira State for plenary discussions
and sub-committee meetings through October 23rd. Al-Khateeb
said that all players - Darfur rebel groups, political
parties, and civil society - have been extended an invitation
to participate in the SPI Conference. Although he doubted
that rebel groups will attend, he said that members from
Darfuri civil society (selected by the regime) will be
present. GNU President Al-Bashir will open the Conference by
proposing a package of items that the GoS might offer on
Darfur such as a single Darfur state, a vice presidential
post, and development funding (reftels). The key, said
Al-Khateeb, will be getting Darfur rebel factions to the
table to negotiate on such a package. The intent is for the
one-week consultative conference to produce a number of
recommendations from "the Sudanese people" that the GoS can
pull together to develop a single proposal for a political
settlement to the Darfur crisis. Khateeb said that following
the conference the GoS and Darfur rebel groups would ideally
meet to negotiate on the proposed settlement in Doha Talks
there could begin as soon as October 28. The SPI conference
will put pressure on the rebels to conclude that there are
acceptable non-military solutions to the crisis, said
Al-Khateeb.


4. (C) PolChief urged that the GoS conduct bilateral meetings
with key rebel leaders such as the Justice and Equality

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Movement's (JEM's) Khalil Ibrahim, Sudan Liberation
Movement's (SLM's) Abdel-Wahid Al-Nur, and the Sudan
Liberation Movement-Unity's (SLM-Unity's) Abdallah Yehia and
Sharif Harir in advance of negotiations. Al-Khateeb agreed
with this approach and said that GNU Vice President Ali Osman
Taha is considering holding bilateral meetings with rebel
groups himself in Doha (or allowing the regime's security
head man, National Intelligence and Security Service Chief
Salah Ghosh, to do so,) but did not commit to meetings with
rebels before the Doha talks. Al-Khateeb claimed that the
GoS is willing to entertain the unification of Darfur into
one state or Abdel-Wahid's call for the creation of a fourth
Darfur State. PolChief also recommended that the GoS propose
its own political settlement to the Darfur crisis at the SPI
conference, rather than just sitting back and listening to
the recommendations of others. Al-Khateeb encouraged the
USG, as well as other international actors, to play a more
active role in bringing rebel groups together to establish a
common political stance and to persuade them to engage in
negotiations with the GoS. "If you bring the rebels to the
table, we'll be there," said Al-Khateeb. He recommended the
international community support this action in the context of
the Qatari Initiative. He said the biggest potential problem
for the SPI is the unwillingness of key rebel groups to
negotiate. If the GoS comes up with a package and the rebels
fail to negotiate, then the problme of Darfur will fall to
the international community to solve, said Al-Khateeb.


5. (C) Arab League Ambassador Halima told polchief October 13
that the Qatari Foreign Minister and possibly the Prime
Minister would arrive October 15 in advance of the launch of
the SPI. Halima said that Arab League SG Amr Musa as well as
five additional Arab foreign ministers would attend the SPI,
including Syria, Egypt, Algeria, Libya, and Saudi Arabia.
Halima pointed out that this is a joint Arab League - African
Union initiative, not just a Qatari initiative, and said that
five African Foreign Ministers would also attend including
Senegal, Nigeria, Tanzania, South Africa, and Burkina Faso.
Halima acknowledged that the Arab League and the Qataris are
"in over their heads and know nothing" about Darfur, but plan
to "buy off" the rebels in order to reach a peace agreement.
Halima and polchief agreed that the Qataris and Bassole
should carefully control the list of who is invited to Doha,
and not simply accept a list from the regime, as this would
be a recipe for disaster and would recreate the failed Sirte
(Libya) peace talks of October 2007.

SPLM and SLM/MM
--------------


6. (C) SPLM D/SG Yasir Arman told poloffs on October 13 that
FVP Salva Kiir will attend the opening ceremony of the SPI,
but that Kiir will give a "tough speech" regarding what has
happened in Darfur. He said the SPLM is not happy about the
SPI, but is attempting to "make the most of a bad situation."
Arman said the SPLM is eager to work with Minawi, opposition
parties, "real civil society" members and others opposed to
the NCP in order to propose a credible solution on Darfur.
For his part, Minawi has not decided whether he will attend
the opening ceremony (despite GOS-sponsored press reports
stating that he will be there,) but appears to be leaning in
that direction, as Vice President Taha has been calling him
to follow up on assurances that the TDRA will be partially
funded as agreed in El Fasher last month. (Note: Minawi
called poloffs multiple times between October 12 and 14
seeking advice on whether to attend. We replied that he had
to make a calculation of what best served his movement's
interests, and should not lose this opportunity to put as
much pressure as possible on the regime to deliver on its
promises. End note.)

REBELS, OPPOSITION PARTIES, CIVIL SOCIETY
--------------


7. (C) No major rebel groups will attend the SPI opening
events in Khartoum or Kenana. SLA/AW, JEM, and SLA/U
representatives all confirmed to Embassy Khartoum that they
will not participate. SLA/AW appears to be the most
resistant to attending the talks, though SLA/AW commander

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Suleiman Marajane told poloff on October 14 that the Qatar
initiative would be more effective if it were not so closely
associated with the Arab League. JEM wants direct bilateral
negotiations with the Government, facilitated by the UN/AU
chief mediator. SLA/U remains open to attending the Doha
initiative as long as the Arab League's influence is
minimized. SLA/U claimed that Arab militia continue to mount
attacks against SLA/U positions east of Muhajaria in Jebel
Marra. Commander Kado stated that no GOS Central Reserve
Police (CRP) were used in the attack, but that the village of
"Hajara" was destroyed, with "nine civilians" killed in the
fighting. (Note: Commander Kado, though widely known and
respected as one of the strongest rebel commanders in Darfur,
is suspected by some of involvement in the July attack on
UNAMID. End note.)


8. (C) The only political party that has confirmed its
attendance at the SPI is Umma/National led by former Prime
Minister Sadiq al Mahdi, who is widely believed to have
struck a deal with the government on Darfur in exchange for a
sizable monthly stipend. DUP/Mirghani remains unconfirmed,
though party insiders report that Mirghani may send
representatives to the opening ceremony. Opposition party
representatives held a meeting on October 12 at the
headquarters of the Communist party to discuss a common
position on the SPI. Umma Reform and Renewal party leader
Mubarak al Fadil claimed to polchief on October 12 that there
is wide consensus among the opposition that they should not
participate in the SPI as its chief objective is to help
President Bashir avoid an ICC indictment. Nonetheless, al
Fadil conceded that the Doha initiative might produce results
"because the Qataris have deep pockets and are willing to pay
off all the rebels." No civil society or IDP representatives
known to the Embassy plan to attend the SPI. The civil
society groups that are preparing proposals to end the Darfur
crisis seem reluctant to submit them for consideration at
this time, despite encouragement from the Embassy that their
proposals would be useful in Doha (ref B).

UN/AU MEDIATOR BASSOLE
--------------


9. (C) Chief Mediator Bassole was not planning to attend the
opening ceremony of the SPI, but he changed his mind on
October 13, according to his assistant, Laura Sitea. Bassole
is in Geneva, and is scheduled to meet with SYG Ban ki Moon
on October 14 to discuss his own role in the Qatar initiative
and what statements he is authorized to make on behalf of the
UN at the opening ceremony of the SPI on October 16. Sitea
reported that Bassole remains concerned that the SPI is too
closely associated with the Arab League's plan to help Bashir
avoid the ICC. Nonetheless, Bassole recognizes that the Doha
initiative could gain some credibility if the GOS makes a
serious offer and if the key rebels can be convinced to
participate. Sitea passed along a request from Bassole that
the USG demarche the Qataris to request their support in
insisting that the GOS meet on a bilateral basis with key
rebels in advance of the Doha talks, to demonstrate their
good will and inform the rebels of what they are prepared to
offer. Bassole believes that if the GOS does not agree to do
this, no rebels will attend the meetings in Doha, and this
particular opportunity to advance the peace process will be
lost.

SUGGESTED USG ACTIONS
--------------


10. (C) While there is little doubt that the SPI will be a
show, and it remains to be seen if the GOS will offer any
credible concessions at this stage, the Qatar initiative
could advance the Darfur peace process if handled correctly.
Embassy Khartoum suggests that the USG weigh in with the
Qatari government, which might appreciate our assistance as
well as a US offer to encourage key rebels to attend the Doha
talks. In order to convince SLA/AW, SLA/U, and JEM/KI to
attend, the Qataris must carefully control the list of
participants and the framework used for discussions. They
should not simply accept a list nor a framework from the
Sudanese. Moreover, the Qataris should use their leverage to

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lean on the GOS to agree to meet bilaterally with the key
rebels before the Doha talks as well as at the Doha talks -
to distinguish the key rebels from the dozens of other faux
and inconsequential rebels (some supported by the regime to
sow confusion and weaken the movements) that will be invited.
These two points will allow us to make credible
interventions with the rebels. As there are no other options
on the table, the Qatar initiative deserves our full support.
If this process fails, many months will likely pass before
another initiative materializes. Qatar has the resources to
support this process, but they need our assistance.
ASQUINO