SE WILLIAMSON MEETING WITH AEC CHAIR PLUMBLY

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 001514 DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: SE WILLIAMSON MEETING WITH AEC CHAIR PLUMBLY REF: KHARTOUM 1499 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: AEC Chair Plumbly told Special Envoy Richard Williamson on October 8 that while the two parties to the CPA have not precisely met deadlines for implementation, they are progressing and have addressed difficult issues with a modicum of cooperation. Having recently returned from two weeks in South Sudan - an experience which he said gave him the chance to "get under the skin" of South Sudan - Plumbly predicted that the Sudanese will continue to "plod along unevenly" on important issues, but he urged that the international community act to "insulate CPA implementation from the ICC issue." END SUMMARY ¶2. (SBU) Addressing the chief concern of SE Williamson, Plumbly began by saying that the contentious negotiations between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) over Abyei were reaching a significant tipping point, and the resolutions from the previous day's AEC plenary (reftel) give him cause for hope. "Both sides will see that they both have strong cases, and that both can lose, so they will begin talking. They will realize that the deal on the table is a good deal." Regarding security in Abyei, Plumbly agreed with SE that while the Joint Integrated Units (JIUs) in Abyei are "somewhat joint, and somewhat integrated," at least they have some minimal resources, while at other locations along the border, the JIUs have no resources whatsoever, and are neither effective nor efficient. Regarding Abyei wealth-sharing, Plumbly said that arrears remain unaddressed, but that current revenues are being set aside per the roadmap agreement. ¶3. (SBU) Plumbly said that now is a "good moment" to initiate discussions to resolve the pressing issue of border demarcation. Plumbly sees the NCP as willing to compromise substantially given the SPLM's significant leverage - Plumbly quoted NCP negotiator Dirdeiry Mohamed Ahmed as telling him, "If Salva Kiir lines up on the ICC, we'll give him anything." Calling it a "matter for cartographers and lawyers," Plumbly said that a resolution to the border demarcation standoff may soon be possible for several reasons: first, as elections approach, borders will be necessary to define each party's constituency; second, with only three years left until the 2011 referendum, both parties will endeavor to demarcate potential border areas; and third, that the degree to which the NCP needs the SPLM on the ICC issue will expand the NCP's willingness to compromise. ¶4. (SBU) Plumbly was less optimistic that Sudan has the capacity to follow through with the CPA-mandated national elections, planned for ¶2009. "Neither side wants the elections, but neither side wants to be the one who pulls the plug," Plumbly said. Despite promised assistance from UNMIS and the international community, it would still be difficult to hold elections by the end of next year. Plumbly expects the parties will refer the question of the timing of elections to the National Electoral Commission because neither side wants to be seen as publicly admitting that the schedule put forward in the CPA is not feasible. Despite admitting that he has does not have high hopes for elections, Plumbly added that the importance of the elections remains paramount for the future of Sudan. ¶5. (SBU) When asked if he concurred with gloom-and-doom scenarios regarding the ICC arrest warrants, Plumbly admitted that it would be better for Sudan if the entire process were averted, but did not subscribe to the view that the apocalypse would commence should Bashir be labeled a "war criminal" by the ICC. Nonetheless, Plumbly said it was important to try and insulate CPA implementation from the ICC indictment and its subsequent reverberation throughout the country, and to discourage the SPLM from rising up in dissension to the NCP as a result of the possible indictment. ¶6. (SBU) SE Williamson cleared this cable prior to transmission. ASQUINO