SE WILLIAMSON MEETINGS WITH SOUTHERN SUDANESE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 KHARTOUM 001512 SIPDIS DEPT FOR A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, DRL DEPT PLEASE PASS USAID AFR/SUDAN NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU PARIS FOR BKANEDA TRIPOLI FOR CANDINO E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2018 TAGS: PREL KDEM PGOV UNSC KPKO AU SU SUBJECT: SE WILLIAMSON MEETINGS WITH SOUTHERN SUDANESE LEADERS: A WEAKENED NCP IS MORE WILLING TO CONCEDE KHARTOUM 00001512 001.3 OF 005 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a. i. Mark Asquino, reasons 1.4(b) and (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) US Special Envoy to Sudan Ambassador Richard Williamson visited the southern Sudanese towns of Rumbek and Juba on 7 October to meet with Government of National Unity (GNU) First Vice President and Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) President Salva Kiir Mayardit, the Sudan Liberation People's Movement (SPLM) Secretary General Pagan Amum and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) Chief of Staff Oyai Deng Ajak. Southern Sudan leaders told SE Williamson that the NCP leadership was weakened by the lack of UNSC member support for an ICC indictment deferral in New York. This, in turn, has led to the NCP's willingness to concede on issues of CPA implementation and Darfur. Southern leaders emphasized that USG support for capacity-building of the SPLM/A is critical and should continue through the next USG administration. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Special Envoy Williamson met with GNU First Vice-President and GoSS President Salva Kiir Mayardit in Rumbek, the capital of Lakes State, on 7 October. Kiir was joined by a host of his closest advisors including Dr. Anne Itto, Deputy Secretary General of the SPLM for the Southern Sector, Dr. Luka Biong Deng, Presidential Advisor, Michael Makuei Lueth, GoSS Minister of Legal Affairs and Constitutional Development, Lt. Gen. Daniel Awet, Governor of Lakes State, Barnabas Marial Benjamin, GoSS Minister for Regional Cooperation, Paul Mayom, GoSS Minister for Internal Affairs, Peter Bashir Gbendi, Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly (SSLA) Information Committee Chairman, and Daniel Deng Mayardi, SSLA Security Committee Chairman. Ambassador Williamson expressed his respect for and appreciation of FVP Salva Kiir's leadership in Sudan, and stated that the USG is and will continue to be supportive of the SPLM and its efforts to implement the CPA. "You remain the indispensable man in southern Sudan for keeping the CPA on track," Williasontold Kiir, and the USG continues to view the full ;implementation of the CPA as "critical." Williamson expressed concern about progress on the Abyei Roadmap and continued insecurity in Darfur, particularly along the Sudan-Chad border, and welcomed FVP Kiir's thoughts on these issues, as well as the census and coming elections. -------------- -------------- WEAKENED BY EVENTS IN NEW YORK, THE NCP IS WILLING TO CONCEDE -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) FVP Kiir informed SE Williamson that GNU Vice-President Ali Osman Taha traveled to Juba on 6 October to meet with FVP Kiir on a number of issues. Kiir described Taha as "weakened" and with "low morale" after returning from the UNGA and failing to gain traction on an Article 16 suspension of ICC proceedings against GNU President Al-Bashir. The lack of deferment assurances by UNSC members in New York has made the NCP more willing to concede, explained Kiir. "VP Taha and I were able to reach an agreement on the full Abyei interim administration in a mere five minutes," reported Kiir. The decree announcing the members of the administration was released that night (6 October),and we expect this new administrative body will begin working immediately. Despite progress on the naming of an administration, conditions in Abyei town are "still bad", said Kiir. Furthermore, he was skeptical that the Central Ministry of Finance is "setting aside" the alotted oil revenue for the unity development fund which was set up to support the border areas. the NCP has not re-deployed elements of the SAF 31st Brigade (around 400 troops near the town of Difra) out of the Abyei region. FVP Kiir stated that with SAF still in Abyei, the Joint Integrated Unit (JIU) and UNMIS peacekeepers cannot fully do their job. He asked that SE Williamson to raise the re-deployment issue with the NCP. Kiir also asked that the USG, as well as other international players, support the return of IDPs to Abyei by assisting in the reconstruction of the area. Schools and hospitals must KHARTOUM 00001512 002.2 OF 005 be built and critical services in the areas of health and sanitation must be available to former residents in order to enable their return to Abyei before the start of the next rainy season. ¶4. (C) Characterizing his discussion with Taha as "good", FVP Kiir said that the two spoke about the SPLM's role in solving the Darfur crisis. Kiir explained that in the past, the NCP has always wanted to dictate the approach to solving Darfur so that it could control the situation and take credit for any progress made. The people of Darfur do not trust the NCP and its initiatives, said Kiir, and the NCP is beginning to realize that it cannot bring peace to Darfur without the SPLM. Reaching out to the SPLM in a time of desperation, Taha asked Kiir to play more of a role in solving the Darfur crisis. "Taha told me I should go to Ndjamena to talk to (Chadian President) Idris Deby," said Kiir. "I told him that if I go to Deby, I must go with a clear message - that the GoS will not attack his regime again." Kiir explained that in the past, the NCP was wary of the SPLM making peace with Sudan's regional neighbors, fearful that such moves might strengthen the SPLM's position vis-a-vis the NCP. Kiir also said that SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum and SPLM Deputy Secretary Anne Itto will travel to Khartoum on 8 October to meet with the NCP on Darfur. Kiir told SE Williamson that he strongly advised the NCP that it should "talk in concrete terms" about what could be done to solve the crisis, urging the NCP to look at demands being made by Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) leader Khalil Ibrahim and Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) leader Abdul Wahid Al-Nur on power-sharing and normalize relations between Sudan and Chad. He noted that another SPLM delegation will travel to Paris soon to speak to SLM leader Abdel-Wahid Al-Nur. ¶5. (C) FVP Kiir described a frightening scenario regarding upcoming elections. "The NCP is thinking wildly because it does not know what the outcome of the ICC will be." The threat of an indictment may lead the NCP to act in a very "stupid manner," said Kiir. He reported that his sources say that the NCP is working with other northern opposition parties to declare a state of emergency in the event of an ICC indictment. If this occurs, the National Assembly will be dissolved, important laws such as the national security act will not be amended, Al-Bashir will rule by decree, and elections will not happen. And if elections do happen, said Kiir, the NCP will make sure that it wins. Kiir told SE Williamson that the SPLM is withholding judgment on the outcome of the census until final census figures are released. (Note: Census results are expected to be released in December or January. End Note.) ¶6. (C) FVP Kiir thanked SE Williamson for the USG's commitment to support the GoSS and the SPLA, particularly by providing capacity-building to southern officials and the military. "It looks more and more like the NCP will prefer war to CPA implementation," said Kiir, therefore USG support to the SPLA is essential. Kiir claimed that the NCP is recruiting Arab forces from outside of Sudan to train in Sudan. He spoke about the existence of a "huge" regime-sponsored force and combat aircraft working in Merowe, Northern State. Furthermore, the NCP continues to arm Arab tribes against African tribes, said Kiir. The only way the SAF can beat the SPLA is with its air-power. Russia and China have provided the North with combat aircraft. The FVP asked SE Williamson for the USG to help the SPLA in the area of air defense. If we have the means to shoot down two or three SAF aircraft, said Kiir, it will be enough to demoralize the SAF. ¶7. (C) SE Williamson told FVP Kiir that he was encouraged by Kiir's meeting with Taha, the setting up of an Abyei interim administration, and the NCP's willingness to allow the SPLM to participate in finding a solution to the Darfur crisis. He assured FVP Kiir that he would explain to the NCP that it will not be in its interest to "do something dramatic" in the event of an ICC indictment of Al-Bashir. The USG continues to be supportive of upcoming elections in Sudan, said KHARTOUM 00001512 003.2 OF 005 Williamson, and we marvel at how far the SPLM has come in the last three years. The USG will continue to help strengthen the capacity of the GoSS and the SPLM/A, particularly in the areas of regional cooperation and among the presidential affairs ministries. We want to make sure the CPA is implemented, and we want southern Sudan to have the opportunity to vote in a referendum on secession in 2011, concluded SE Williamson. FVP Kiir asked SE Williamson for a one-on-one meeting immediately following the group meeting. FVP Kiir used this time to describe further doomsday scenarios in the event of an ICC indictment of Al-Bashir. -------------- -------------- AMUM: POTENTIAL SUCCESS IN AN AU-UN-QATARI INITIATIVE -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum told SE Williamson in Juba on 7 October that when Taha traveled to Juba on 6 October to meet with FVP Salva Kiir, GoSS VP Riek Machar, and SPLM SG Pagan Amum, he made it clear that the program of solving the crisis in Darfur is now at "the top of the national agenda." Describing Taha's mood as "changed" after NY, similar to FVP Kiir's descriptions of Taha earlier, Pagan informed SE Williamson that he would travel to Khartoum on 8 October to join an NCP team in meeting with UN-AU Chief Mediator Djibril Bassole, the Qataris, and the Arab League on potential elements of a Darfur political settlement. "We told the NCP that we believe there are a number of issues that the NCP must comply with before the conditions are right to reach a political settlement in Darfur," said Amum. These issues are: arriving at and honoring a cease-fire in the region, full cooperation with the AU-UN for the speedy deployment of UNAMID, and removal of all obstacles preventing humanitarian organizations from operating effectively in the area. According to Amum, Taha said the NCP would consider a cease-fire. On the issue of UNAMID, Taha claimed that the sloth-like roll-out of UNAMID is not a result of the GoS; but rather due to a lack of UN funding for the mammoth effort. With regard to cooperation with humanitarian organizations working in Darfur, Taha claimed that the GoS is facilitating this through its Darfur fasttrack i.itiative& ¶9. (B9 `Amui explaint thaT fop medi!|ionloi'Sga$2a_UI.