NCP/SPLM DISCUSSIONS ON DARFUR AND ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001490

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2018
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: NCP/SPLM DISCUSSIONS ON DARFUR AND ELECTIONS

REF: KHARTOUM 1433

Classified By: A/CDA Mark Asquino, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) The NCP and SPLM have been negotiating over the past
few days on electoral issues as well as a package of
concessions that the GNU could offer on Darfur as part of the
Sudan People,s Initiative, NCP insider Yehia Bebiker told
polchief October 6. Bebiker accompanied Vice President Taha
to Juba October 5 ostensibly for discussions with FVP Salva
Kiir on CPA implementation issues, chief among them the
outstanding issue of the National Electoral Commission (but
he said the conversation was mostly about options on Darfur).
Regarding the National Electoral Commission, Bebiker
acknowledged that the two proposed heads of the Commission,
Abel Alier and Abdallah Idriss, had refused to lead the
Commission and the NCP and SPLM agreed to put pressure on
them to assume the posts. Bebiker said that for now the two
CPA parties had no other good candidates in mind to head the
Commission. (Note: Abyei was also a point of discussion
between Taha and Kiir, and on October 6 the Presidency issued
decrees naming the remaining members of the Abyei Interim
Administration. End note.)


2. (SBU) With regard to Darfur, Bebiker said that SPLM SG
Pagan Amun and D/SG Yasir Arman would travel to Khartoum in
the next few days to continue discussions with the NCP
regarding a package of items that could be offered on Darfur,
including a single Darfur state, a vice presidential post,
and development funding, among others. Bebiker said that
President Bashir would like to launch the Sudan People,s
Initiative on October 16, first with consultations in Sudan
and then with a conference in Doha, Qatar. Bebiker said it
was unlikely that the GOS would be willing to announce
publicly a package of concessions on Darfur, due to the risk
that these could be rejected by the rebels, or that the
rebels would only take these concessions and demand more.
However Bebiker, who was involved in the Naivasha
negotiations on the CPA, thought it would be useful for an
intermediary such as UN/AU Chief Mediator Djibril Bassole to
carry proposals back and forth between the government and the
factions. Polchief encouraged Bebiker to contact Bassole
(see para 5). Bebiker said the Government of Qatar would
send another delegation to Sudan next week to discuss
arrangements for the conference.


3. (SBU) Bebiker confirmed that Presidential Assistant Nafie
ali Nafie is in Paris with MFA U/S Siddiq to negotiate a
possible &package deal8 with the French regarding a
deferral of the ICC indictment, which would include a peace
plan on Darfur, deployment of UNAMID, and cooperation with
the ICC (though to the Sudanese this means trying ICC
indictees Kushayb and Haroun in Sudan). Bebiker said the GOS
is eager to hear US proposals on a package for Darfur and
thought the leverage of the USG with Darfur rebels to bring
them to the negotiating table would be useful. Bebiker also
asked about the status of US-Sudan bilateral talks and
whether SE Williamson would raise the issue during his visit.
He observed that a general road map on US-Sudan relations
would be useful and suggested that an exchange of letters
between President Bashir and President Bush might be the best
way to lay out proposals on paper in the absence of a formal
agreement.


4. (SBU) Separately, A/CDA Asquino and polchief met with
Chief Mediator Bassole October 5 to discuss Bassole,s plans
for the mediation. Bassole shared his list of proposals for
ending the Darfur crisis, starting with a Cessation of
Hostilities, followed by a ceasefire that could be monitored
by UNAMID, and then a political deal including compensation
for IDPs, land rights, a single region, and a vice
presidential position. Bassole said that he had not received
a reply to his letter to Nafie ali Nafie, but was aware that
regime officials are also discussing a possible &package8
on Darfur. Bassole said he had productive meetings with the
Qataris, who do not wish to take over the mediation but would
rather coordinate closely with Bassole and his team. Bassole
warned against linking the proposed talks in Doha to the Arab
League initiative on the ICC, and discouraged attendance by
other Arab League states at the conference in Doha, as the
rebels would likely refuse to attend and the conference would
be viewed only as an attempt to help Bashir avoid the ICC.
Bassole said Abdel Wahid in particular had expressed this
view. Bassole said that over the next week he plans to push
GOS officials and JEM to present their proposals on a

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solution to the Darfur crisis, so that he can attempt to
synthesize the documents.


5. (C) Comment: The NCP has evolved over the last two weeks
in their discussions of possible solutions to the Darfur
crisis; while two weeks ago the NCP was resistant to the idea
of a single Darfur state (reftel),now it seems to be
accepted as a necessary part of any peace deal. Although the
NCP remains resistant to unilaterally making any concessions,
there is now an opening for Bassole to begin shuttle
diplomacy between the parties in earnest. US and French
pressure on Abdelwadid and Khalil Ibrahim, at least to get
them to the negotiating table, could prove essential.
Although the NCP is not yet demanding concessions, it appears
to believe that a combination of three essential points -
UNAMID deployment, a plan for Darfur peace (even if only
preliminary),and greater precision on how Kushayb and Haroun
are to be treated ) will be enough to get President Bashir
off the hook. If this is not the case, the regime is likely
to react strongly at least initially, though we continue to
believe that the removal of the UN is unlikely as it would
put the regime on a collision course with the West, with
potentially dire repercussions, though we cannot discount the
possibility of emotional reactions.
ASQUINO