MISSERIYA CONTINUE SEARCH FOR PEACE BENEFITS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001460 DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, PRM ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SP, USAID/W DCHA SUDAN NAIROBI FOR USAID/DCHA/OFDA, USAID/REDSO, AND FAS GENEVA FOR NKYLOH NAIROBI FOR SFO NSC FOR PMARCHAM, MMAGAN, AND BPITTMAN NEW YORK FOR DMERCADO BRUSSELS FOR JADDLETON USMISSION UN ROME FOR RNEWBERG SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID PREF PGOV PHUM SOCI SU SUBJECT: MISSERIYA CONTINUE SEARCH FOR PEACE BENEFITS REFS: A) KHARTOUM 1455 B) KHARTOUM 1435 C) KHARTOUM 1427 D) KHARTOUM 1309 KHARTOUM 00001460 001.2 OF 002 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) A growing influx of arms into Misseriya areas of Southern Kordofan State and continued feelings of disenfranchisement among Misseriya over perceived losses in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) have contributed to increased tensions in this tense region. There is a crucial need to show Misseriya ethnic group members that their interests are served by continued peace in Sudan under current arrangements, and that the Misseriya have the political means to arrive at an acceptable final solution. Destabilization in Misseriya areas risks increasing conflicts between Misseriya and neighboring ethnic groups, including the Ngok Dinka, Nuba, Rizeigat, Mwal Dinka, and Nuer, potentially derailing the Abyei road map agreement and the CPA. Misseriya officials are seeking political solutions to Misseriya issues, which should be encouraged and supported when possible. END SUMMARY. -------------- INCREASED MISSERIYA ARMING -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Two disturbing recent reports from Misseriya contacts indicate an urgent need to address issues related to state integration in the western sector of Southern Kordofan. First, Abel Gassim Gour - a Misseriya intellectual, professor in the University of Khartoum peace studies department, and activist in Misseriya peace initiatives - reports that large quantities of arms are flowing into Misseriya areas of western Southern Kordofan state. Abel Gour flagged this trend as evidence of growing frustration among the Misseriya, many of whom perceive a lack of benefits from the CPA. -------------- FRUSTRATED MISSERIYA PLAN FOR ACTION -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Additionally Ahmed Gour (no relation to Abel Gour),the nephew of Mohamed Gour, a Misseriya Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) national parliamentarian and influential Misseriya leader, recently confided to USAID implementing partner staff that frustrations among the Misseriya regarding perceived lack of benefits from the CPA have reached a point requiring action. According to Ahmed Gour, the Misseriya have not received significant benefits from the development fund from Khartoum or the Kadugli government. Ahmed Gour sees the recent progress on integrating former SPLM areas of the state (reftel),with no integration of the western sector, as supporting the Nuba ethnic group while neglecting the Misseriya. Ahmed Gour asserted that neither the SPLM nor National Congress Party (NCP) is looking out for Misseriya interests and that the Misseriya had no input in the Abyei road map agreement, which Ahmed Gour claimed ignores Misseriya interests and concerns. Ahmed Gour is planning to meet the Deputy Governor of Southern Kordofan to ask if the Kadugli government can take steps to integrate the area and provide development assistance. If not, the Misseriya may take matters into their own hands. According to Ahmed Gour, the Misseriya have planned their next steps and could effectively block oil production and separate the western sector from the rest of the state by force. Ahmed Gour stated that the Misseriya would have no problems getting arms for this end. -------------- MISSERIYA DISSATISFACTION PRIORITY ISSUE -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Neroun Phillip, the Nuba SPLM co-chair of the Presidential Assessment and Evaluation Committee (PAEC),also recently traveled around Southern Kordofan. He told USAID staff that the Misseriya are more frustrated than are the Nuba at what the former see as a lack of progress on CPA implementation. Phillip said that for this reason issues in the western sector are a more serious threat than those in the Nuba Mountains. KHARTOUM 00001460 002.2 OF 002 ¶5. (SBU) USAID staff and other donors recently met with Omar Suliman Adam, the Misseriya Governor of Southern Kordofan State. Adam expressed appreciation for USAID-supported Misseriya-Dinka and Misseriya-Misseriya dialogues planned for the coming months. Adam would like to use these forums to discuss the way forward in addressing Misseriya concerns, particularly respecting integration. To date, no other donors are addressing issues in the western sector such as integration. On September 19, Mokhtar Babu Nimir, the Amir of the Misseriya Ajaira, called for a meeting of the Misseriya native administration to announce the participants of the USAID-supported Misseriya-Misseriya forum scheduled for mid-October in Muglad. -------------- MISSERIYA-MISSERIYA MEETING -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The Misseriya-Misseriya meeting will attempt to develop a common position and response among the Misseriya on the Abyei road map agreement, voluntary disarmament, and outstanding issues with the CPA. Participants will include traditional leaders, civil society, women leaders, and government officials. The Misseriya head of the Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration Commission (DDRC) for Southern Kordofan State and the Southern Kordofan State Governor will attend the sessions to ensure government follow-through on meeting resolutions. A follow-on meeting is planned between Misseriya and Ngok Dinka to discuss common positions among the ethnic groups on these issues and agree on requirements for Misseriya migration through Ngok Dinka areas during the upcoming dry season beginning in November. Disarmament of Misseriya herdsmen migrating through Ngok Dinka areas will be a key requirement for Misseriya access to these areas. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The Misseriya are key to peace in the Southern Kordofan region. Given NCP manipulation, they can play the dangerous role of spoiler to the CPA, as they have done on several occasions in Abyei. Increased arming of the Misseriya and continued dissatisfaction felt by a tribe that regards itself as having been manipulated and marginalized could threaten the successful implementation of the CPA and the Abyei road map agreement. Since the signing of the CPA, Misseriya have increasingly abandoned their previous support for the Umma Party, in search of benefits from both the NCP and SPLM. After fighting against the SPLA along migration routes in the fall of 2007 and staunch SPLM support for the Ngok Dinka in the Abyei Road Map discussions, the Misseriya do not feel that supporting the SPLM will fully serve their interests. Although some Misseriya lean toward supporting the NCP as a last, best option, many note that the NCP did not look out for the interests of the Misseriya in the CPA or Abyei road map negotiations. ¶8. (SBU) Finding an acceptable solution to issues of Misseriya integration, including government-led development in the western sector, is an important component in achieving sustainable peace in Abyei and Southern Kordofan. As we have reported previously, the NCP seeks to provoke continued conflict between the Misseriya and their neighbors, notably the Dinka and Nuba, in its strategy of "divide and rule." The popular consultation is one political mechanism through which the Misseriya could press for the reconstitution of the former West Kordofan State if successful integration into Southern Kordofan cannot be achieved, and also refocus their aspirations away from Abyei. SPLM support either for effective integration or reviving an ethnic-Misseriya state could engender the trust and support of the Misseriya. CDA Fernandez has held several roundtables with the Misseriya and invited many of their leaders to the Embassy's Ramadan Iftar on September 17, but this key tribe needs constant attention and resources. Through its partners, USAID will continue to support discussions around these issues to facilitate the determination of potential solutions. Post will continue to advocate for peaceful Misseriya interests with the regime, such as a separate West Kordofan State and regional reconciliation and integration efforts. FERNANDEZ