LACK OF PEACE DIVIDENDS IN SOUTHERN KORDOFAN LEAVES THE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 001435 DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: LACK OF PEACE DIVIDENDS IN SOUTHERN KORDOFAN LEAVES THE NUBA FRUSTRATED AND DESPERATE REFS: (A) KHARTOUM 1427 (B) KHARTOUM 1309 (C) KHARTOUM 629 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) During a meeting with poloff in Kadugli on 14 September, Deputy Governor of Southern Kordofan Daniel Kodi (SPLM) expressed frustration with what he perceived as a lack of peace dividends from the CPA and the neglect of Nuban interests by the GoSS and the GNU. Kodi explained the challenges of integration, the lack of a functioning Joint Integrated Unit for Southern Kordofan, alleged NCP arming of Arab groups in the state, and the pressing need for the SPLM to win a majority in the state assembly during upcoming legislative elections in order to exercise the right of popular consultation. He urged the USG to urge others to pay attention to concerns of the Nuba and help the people of Southern Kordofan. End summary. -------------- KODI: INTEGRATION IS JUST NOT WORKING OUT -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In a meeting with poloff in Kadugli, Southern Kordofan on 14 September, Deputy Governor Daniel Kodi (SPLM) criticized the progress of police and civil service integration in the state. Integration of the former SPLA-controlled areas into the state and federal administration, now three years delayed, began with integration of the SPLA police into the federal police force in August (reftels A and B). Kodi's biggest complaint is that what is occurring is "absorption," not "integration." In 2007, 2,400 civil service vacancies were identified, according to Kodi. Currently, the state government is accepting applications for the vacancies from those in the formerly SPLA-controlled areas. Kodi indicated that it will be very difficult for many in the SPLA areas to attain positions in the Southern Kordofan civil service because the civil service law requires personnel to have certain qualifications and years of experience before being hired. Because the SPLA-controlled areas in Southern Kordofan have been closed off to the rest of the state for over 20 years, people in those areas are unlikely to meet the necessary qualifications for integration into the civil service. Furthermore, Kodi explained, language is a problem. The official language of the government is Arabic, yet many in the SPLA areas do not speak Arabic. "One of the tragedies we will face," said Kodi, "is that a part of us may not have the chance to be integrated." This is very serious, he added, and "we (the SPLM) are trying to make the NCP understand that they must be flexible on integration, particularly when it comes to the civil service. -------------- NCP-GENERATED CONFLICT IN SOUTHERN KORDOFAN -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The biggest obstacle to peace in Southern Kordofan, said Kodi, is the NCP. Tribes have good relationships with one another in Southern Kordofan, but the NCP uses race and religion to "divide the people," claimed Kodi. "If you could see the number of guns in the hands of the people, particularly Arab tribes such as the Misseriya and the Riezegat," said Kodi, you would be astonished. "The NCP is militarily supporting groups for their own political gains," said Kodi. ¶4. (SBU) When poloff questioned Kodi on the status of the Southern Kordofan Joint Integrated Unit (JIU),he reported that it is neither joint, nor integrated. Two years ago, 3000 SAF and 3000 SPLA troops were identified to form the JIU. Up until now, the troops do not train together, patrol together, or live together. The SAF and SPLA troops report to different commanders and are under different administrations. -------------- --- THE CENSUS DEBACLE AND A LOOK TOWARDS ELECTIONS -------------- --- ¶5. (SBU) Poloff asked Kodi about the conduct of the April-May national census in Southern Kordofan. Kodi himself had called for an SPLM boycott of the census in the state at the time, which led to a significant undercount in the Nuba Mountains region (ref C). "I made it clear that people should not participate in the census," said Kodi, because of a number of unresolved issues that plague Southern Kordofan. He believes that census coverage of the state was no more than 28 percent, although the Central Bureau of Statistics in Khartoum claims that at least 95 percent of all areas in the North were covered. "If I had allowed the census in Southern Kordofan to take place," said Kodi, "I would have betrayed my people." He explained his reasons for boycott as: the lack of KHARTOUM 00001435 002 OF 003 border demarcation, the inability of Nuban IDPs to return to Southern Kordofan, the lack of integration in Southern Kordofan state, and general insecurity in the area caused by armed groups and landmines. Kodi insisted that although Nuban IDPs wanted to return to the area to participate in the census, the NCP blocked their return. "The NCP wanted census results to show that the Arab population in Southern Kordofan is higher than the African population," claimed Kodi. It is a racial issue for the NCP, said Kodi, and the NCP wants to portray the Nuba Mountains as more Arab than African so that it can command the area's rich resources. ¶6. (SBU) On elections, Kodi stated that the NCP is more willing to go to elections than is the SPLM. "For us in Southern Kordofan," said Kodi, "it is a matter of losing everything if the SPLM doesn't win the majority in the state legislature." All of our sacrifices will have been in vain if the SPLM loses in Southern Kordofan. "The NCP hopes to keep the current power-sharing status quo," he said, which means that if the NCP wins the elections in Southern Kordofan, it will call the shots on the popular consultation. If the NCP holds a majority of power during the popular consultation, it will not vote to amend the rights of the Nuba people under the CPA. "There is potential danger for this state if the SPLM does not make the necessary arrangements to win the elections." ¶7. (SBU) Kodi stressed that students and tribal chiefs are the best conduits for civic and voter education in Southern Kordofan because of their access to the communities and ability to speak Nuban languages. "We have a serious problem with illiteracy in Southern Kordofan" and many will not understand why it is important to vote. Since elections have never brought us anything good in the past, said Kodi, many will wonder why this time is any different. -------------- WHAT 2 PERCENT OF OIL REVENUE? -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Poloff asked D/G Kodi if the Government of Southern Kordofan is receiving its allotted 2 percent of oil revenue from the state, as promised to the state in the CPA. "Have you seen the 2 percent? If so, then let me know where it is," said Kodi, laughing. This money has never appeared in the state budget, he added. "The only peace dividend that our people have enjoyed is the absence of war." Other than that, there has been no change in the lives of the Nuban people. ¶9. (SBU) Kodi pleaded that all aid given to Southern Kordofan by international partners be directed to civil society organizations and not the government. The Sudanese system of finance is "not capable of managing money," claimed Kodi. Currently, not enough money is going to the war-affected areas of our state. ¶10. (SBU) Kodi mentioned that he had recently met with GoSS President Salva Kiir Mayardit to describe the "neglect" of Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile state by the GoSS and the SPLM. Kodi explained to Kiir that Southern Kordofan is not accruing any benefits from the CPA, and that as a result, people are becoming restless. "We fought together," said Kodi, "yet there is a negligence of the needs of the Nuban people by the GoSS." The SPLM has promised to provide capacity-building for some of our people, yet they have not delivered on their promise. Kodi explained that he and Kiir agreed to the appointment of a senior representative to the GoSS who would represent the interests of Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile. Currently, no Nuban representative is a member of the GoSS (not surprising since the area is not in South Sudan). Kodi ended by asking poloff to deliver an important message to the American people - "We believe that the US is powerful and has great influence. We appeal to the US to influence others (in Sudan and in the international community) to help the people of Southern Kordofan." -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Kodi, just back from extensive medical leave in the UK partly as a result of alcoholism, is quick to describe doomsday scenarios for the future of Southern Kordofan. While he acted as the spoiler for the census in Southern Kordofan, and is pessimistic about the newly-started integration process, Kodi's views represent an important sentiment in the Nuba Mountains: that the Nuba just aren't getting what they deserve out of the CPA. Manipulation of Arab tribes against the Nuba by the NCP and neglect of Nuban concerns by the GoSS is leading the Nubans down a path of desperation. Not only has integration come three years too late, but also the state government is not receiving the oil revenue it has been promised, nor seeing the fruits of development. If KHARTOUM 00001435 003 OF 003 elections occur in Sudan in 2009-2010 and the SPLM does not control the state's popular consultation process, which is vaguely stated in the CPA as the State Assembly's responsibility to consult the people on CPA implementation in the state and to endorse any "rectification" of procedures in the CPA, then the pro-SPLM Nuba have no shot at redressing their concerns. What the Nubans fear most is that they will be left hanging in the balance if the South decides to secede from Sudan and the Nubans only option is integration with what they regard as a brutal NCP north that has mercilessly subjugated the Nubans in the past. If the Nubans feel like their fate is moving quickly and definitively in this direction, and they are not being given consideration by their southern comrades, the Nubans could take violent measures to make their voices heard, especially if provoked by Arab militias. Kodi's statement that the SPLM in the Nuba Mountains must make "the necessary arrangements to win the elections in Southern Kordofan" is frightening. There is no doubt that close attention should be paid the Nuba Mountains on all areas of CPA implementation, and the elections in particular. One of the problems is local leaders like Kodi who have not provided the leadership the SPLM needs in the region. End Comment. FERNANDEZ