CHADIAN REBELS CLOSE TO SELECTING SINGLE LEADER

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 001389

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, AF/C
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2018
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL MOPS KPKO UN AU SU CD
SUBJECT: CHADIAN REBELS CLOSE TO SELECTING SINGLE LEADER
WHILE VOWING MORE ATTACKS FOLLOWING RAMADAN

Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d
)


1. (C) SUMMARY: On September 9, UFDD/F spokesman Mouktar
ben Yahya told POLOFF that the leaders of five Chadian rebel
movements are currently meeting in Sudan and will choose a
single leader of an allied force this week. Yahya vowed that
without progress in the peace process, the rebels would stage
another attack following Ramadan. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Mukhtar Yahya, the UFDD-Fondamentale and
representative of Abdelwahid Aboud in Sudan, stated that he
had just returned from rebel bases in Eastern Chad
(approximately 75 kilometers from the Sudanese border) in
early September. According to Yahya, the leaders of the
following five major rebel groups are currently meeting in
Sudan near the Chadian border to decide upon a single leader
and plan for upcoming military operations:
- UFDD/F - Abdul Wahid Aboud
- UFCD - Adam Hasballah
- UFDD - Mahamat Nouri
- FSR - Ahmat- Soubianne
- RFC - Timan Erdimi


3. (C) Yahya vowed that the Chadian rebels are ready to
stage another attack, but will wait until the end of Ramadan
and the first window of opportunity following the rainy
season. "We have no other options as there has not been
progress on negotiations," stated Yahya. Yahya acknowledged
that Chadian rebel movements are divided along ethnic lines,
but stated that the ongoing meeting of rebel leaders and the
selection of one head will help bring together these diverse
movements.


4. (C) Yahya recognized that the GoC has strengthened its
military capabilities since the February and June attacks,
but "this will not deter the opposition, as we are committed
to our cause, and this shows the corrupt nature of the
Chadian government as they buy weapons when they should be
feeding the poor." Yahya was equally dismissive of efforts
at strengthening GOC-GOS ties, the Contact Group of African
Nations, and the recent Libyan initiative. "This is a
Chad-Chad problem, and has nothing to do with Sudan," stated
Yahya. POLOFF replied that Yahya operates freely in Sudan
along with other Chadian rebel leaders, and progress in
Chad-Sudan relations might jeopardize their "free rein" in
areas of Sudan used for training, preparation and retreat.
Yahya responded, "We will go someplace if Sudan's
relationship with Chad improves - we are committed to this
cause."


5. (SBU) Throughout the meeting, POLOFF repeated cleared
talking points provided by Washington regarding the need for
cessation of all hostilities against the GOC, and direct
dialogue between the rebels and GOC. Yahya grew frustrated
upon hearing again that the USG is not in a position to
mediate GoC-rebel negotiations, and requested direct
communication with officials in Washington. Yahya also asked
poloff to pass on the following phone numbers to "officials
working on Chad in Washington: 249912933480 and

249121952360.


6. (C) COMMENT: The meeting with Yayha highlighted a
number of troubling developments including the potential for:
improved rebel coordination; the selection of a clear leader
of a united rebel front; and yet another attack in 2008 on
Chadian soil. Yahya appeared frustrated that USG policy
remains consistent on Chad, and will likely become more vocal
and aggressive in future meetings with U.S. officials in
Khartoum. Nonetheless, officials in Washington should
consider repeating the same message to Yahya and other rebel
leaders operating in Sudan, especially as their planning for
future attacks intensifies. It seems clear that the Chadian
rebels' Sudanese paymasters want to avoid a repeat of the
almost successful rebel assault on Ndjamena, when the various
factions reached the capital and reportedly began fighting
among themselves. With Darfuri rebels also in preparation for
action as the rainy season draws to a close in the coming
month, October-November promises to be a volatile and
dangerous season along Sudan's Western border.
FERNANDEZ