CHADIAN REBELS CLOSE TO SELECTING SINGLE LEADER

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 001389 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, AF/C NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2018 TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL MOPS KPKO UN AU SU CD SUBJECT: CHADIAN REBELS CLOSE TO SELECTING SINGLE LEADER WHILE VOWING MORE ATTACKS FOLLOWING RAMADAN Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, Reason: Section 1.4 (b) and (d ) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On September 9, UFDD/F spokesman Mouktar ben Yahya told POLOFF that the leaders of five Chadian rebel movements are currently meeting in Sudan and will choose a single leader of an allied force this week. Yahya vowed that without progress in the peace process, the rebels would stage another attack following Ramadan. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Mukhtar Yahya, the UFDD-Fondamentale and representative of Abdelwahid Aboud in Sudan, stated that he had just returned from rebel bases in Eastern Chad (approximately 75 kilometers from the Sudanese border) in early September. According to Yahya, the leaders of the following five major rebel groups are currently meeting in Sudan near the Chadian border to decide upon a single leader and plan for upcoming military operations: - UFDD/F - Abdul Wahid Aboud - UFCD - Adam Hasballah - UFDD - Mahamat Nouri - FSR - Ahmat- Soubianne - RFC - Timan Erdimi ¶3. (C) Yahya vowed that the Chadian rebels are ready to stage another attack, but will wait until the end of Ramadan and the first window of opportunity following the rainy season. "We have no other options as there has not been progress on negotiations," stated Yahya. Yahya acknowledged that Chadian rebel movements are divided along ethnic lines, but stated that the ongoing meeting of rebel leaders and the selection of one head will help bring together these diverse movements. ¶4. (C) Yahya recognized that the GoC has strengthened its military capabilities since the February and June attacks, but "this will not deter the opposition, as we are committed to our cause, and this shows the corrupt nature of the Chadian government as they buy weapons when they should be feeding the poor." Yahya was equally dismissive of efforts at strengthening GOC-GOS ties, the Contact Group of African Nations, and the recent Libyan initiative. "This is a Chad-Chad problem, and has nothing to do with Sudan," stated Yahya. POLOFF replied that Yahya operates freely in Sudan along with other Chadian rebel leaders, and progress in Chad-Sudan relations might jeopardize their "free rein" in areas of Sudan used for training, preparation and retreat. Yahya responded, "We will go someplace if Sudan's relationship with Chad improves - we are committed to this cause." ¶5. (SBU) Throughout the meeting, POLOFF repeated cleared talking points provided by Washington regarding the need for cessation of all hostilities against the GOC, and direct dialogue between the rebels and GOC. Yahya grew frustrated upon hearing again that the USG is not in a position to mediate GoC-rebel negotiations, and requested direct communication with officials in Washington. Yahya also asked poloff to pass on the following phone numbers to "officials working on Chad in Washington: 249912933480 and ¶249121952360. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: The meeting with Yayha highlighted a number of troubling developments including the potential for: improved rebel coordination; the selection of a clear leader of a united rebel front; and yet another attack in 2008 on Chadian soil. Yahya appeared frustrated that USG policy remains consistent on Chad, and will likely become more vocal and aggressive in future meetings with U.S. officials in Khartoum. Nonetheless, officials in Washington should consider repeating the same message to Yahya and other rebel leaders operating in Sudan, especially as their planning for future attacks intensifies. It seems clear that the Chadian rebels' Sudanese paymasters want to avoid a repeat of the almost successful rebel assault on Ndjamena, when the various factions reached the capital and reportedly began fighting among themselves. With Darfuri rebels also in preparation for action as the rainy season draws to a close in the coming month, October-November promises to be a volatile and dangerous season along Sudan's Western border. FERNANDEZ