UNMIS ON SAF AND SPLA REDEPLOYMENT

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000137 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF SE WILLIAMSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: UNMIS ON SAF AND SPLA REDEPLOYMENT REFERENCE: (A) KHARTOUM 89 (B) KHARTOUM 26 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) Joint Operations Center (JOC) officer Major Ashe Brunton told poloff January 29 that the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have largely complied with the troop redeployments outlined in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) (apart from the oil fields) but that the Sudan Peoples Liberation Army (SPLA) is not in compliance. Brunton said that the SAF has not vigorously protested the SPLA non-compliance. He said that SAF and SPLA forces probably remain in the Abyei oil fields but the UN has not been able to monitor these areas. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Major Brunton said the SPLA partially redeployed it forces in the days prior to the January 9 deadline after notifying the UN. He said that SPLA moved to three assembly areas Aby Motorag, Jalud, and Debab before stopping at Shafara and White Lake (near Bentiu) which are above the 1/1/56 border. Brunton said that although the SPLA is north of the 1/1/56 border, it had claimed to the UN that it is "below the north-south border line." Brunton said that UNMIS Force Commander Lidder has informed the SPLA leadership that its forces are not in compliance with the redeployment conditions of the CPA. ¶3. (SBU) Brunton said SAF had moved its forces at night without informing the UN, but UNMIS located the troops as they crossed the border. He said that 3,200 SAF troops are at Higilig and another 600 at Kosti. He added that UNMIS estimates that a small percentage of SAF troops might remain south of the 1/1/56 border, but that these troops appear to be residents in those areas. ¶4. (SBU) Brunton said the UN is concerned about 3,200 SAF forces located at Higilig and 3,800 SPLA forces at White Lake (both located near north of Bentiu). The close proximity of opposing forces is of great concern to UNMIS, so it has established a permanent observation post in the area, said Brunton. ¶5. (SBU) Brunton said UNMIS does not have freedom of movement in the oil fields so they are unable to determine if the SAF or SPLA redeployed their troops out of the region. However, he said UNMIS believes both armies remain in place in Abyei. He said both the SAF and the SPLA are claiming that they have transitioned to Joint Integrated Units (JIUs) in Abyei. Brunton dismissed these claims saying that only the UN can make that determination after SAF and SPLA troops have met the JIU requirements and after a formal UN declaration. ¶6. (SBU) Comment: Given their shared interest in the security of the oil fields, the SPLA is unlikely to push too hard for now on the SAF's total redeployment out of Abyei, though the border fighting with the Misseriya PDF remains a growing problem which is rapidly increasing tension. These Misseriya PDF penetrating into Northern Bahr al-Ghazal constitute an open provocation by the North against South Sudan, a provocation that has yet to catch the attention of UNMIS. The SPLM will likely push instead for progress on the deployment of integrated JIUs. The SPLA may keep some troops north of the 1/1/56 border as leverage on this issue and the Misseriya intervention. FERNANDEZ