NEW ABYEI ADMINISTRATOR REVIEWS HIS PLANS WITH CDA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 001351 DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, SPG NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF EAID ASEC KPKO UNSC SU SUBJECT: NEW ABYEI ADMINISTRATOR REVIEWS HIS PLANS WITH CDA REFS: A. KHARTOUM 524 ¶B. KHARTOUM 955 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Newly designated Abyei Administrator Arop Mayak told CDA Fernandez that his immediate plans include establishing an environment that will permit the IDPs to return soon, reestablishing security, and promoting ethnic reconciliation between all the groups in the area. CDA Fernandez assured him of strong U.S. support and said that some development projects for the area already have been identified, but must await the return of USAID implementing partners. They agreed that the NCP is continuing to try to stir up conflict between the Ngok Dinka and Misseriya tribes to its own advantage. END SUMMARY. U.S. Stands Ready to Assist Abyei Administration - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) On September 2, Charge Fernandez met with Arop Mayak, the newly appointed Administrator for Abyei. The CDA assured Mayak of the U.S. commitment to help the new Abyei administration succeed. The CDA noted that USAID already had identified some development projects for the region before fighting broke out there in May (ref. A); for example an all-weather airfield and feeder roads in the surrounding countryside. Some money for these has been identified, but implementation must await the return of USAID implementing partners, who were forced to evacuate during the May fighting and have yet to return. When the NGOs are able to return, the U.S. can begin providing material assistance. He added that he hopes the upcoming U.S. police-training program in Juba can be extended to Abyei too. Mayak said that he believed that it could, and remarked that the provisions regarding police were "the only positive part of the Abyei Protocol." First Priority: Getting People Home - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (SBU) Mayak said that his most important immediate task is IDP returns. He said Abyei IDPs fall into two groups. First there are those most recently displaced by the fighting in May. These people are severely traumatized by their experience and will need some time to recover, once they are able to return home. ¶4. (SBU) Mayak noted that a number of measures must be taken before these people can go home. First, remaining unexploded ordinance must be removed. Second, the dead bodies remaining from the May fighting must be recovered. The CDA agreed that if the IDPs returned to discover unburied dead it would lead to another explosion of anger and possibly more fighting. Both of these measures are well in hand, Mayak asserted. Finally, Mayak continued, the SAF, some elements of which remain in Difra, must completely evacuate if the returnees are to feel secure. CDA Fernandez remarked that when he visited Abyei with Special Envoy Williamson following the fighting, they were assured then that the SAF would be gone within "a few days" (a week at the most) so SAF is already two to three weeks later in withdrawing fully than GOS officials had assured SE Williamson. ¶5. (SBU) The second category of IDPs are those who were displaced earlier, during the civil war and earlier, and now want to come home, Mayak continued (the first of displacements in Abyei date to 1965). Most of these want return to their original villages. This will be problematic, as most are from the area north of Abyei town, which remains the region most vulnerable to insecurity. Reestablishing a Secure Environment - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (SBU) Mayak said that after his consultations in Abyei, he will order the security forces to redeploy, mostly to the north of the town. Mayak, a former SPLA commander, says that he intends to fully exercise the Administrator's prerogative to control the JIU and JIPU forces in the region to establish security. He also plans to establish a small-arms-free zone in Abyei in order to restore the residents' confidence in their security. CDA Fernandez asked how Mayak planned to handle the "Baggara" Misseriya, nomadic Arab herdsmen who migrate with their cattle through the Abyei region on their way to grasslands farther south and who routinely carry weapons. Mayak said he plans to designate a line north of Abyei, beyond which the herdsmen may pass, but only without their arms. The Charge commented that this is a sensible idea, but one to which the GoS probably would object. ¶7. (SBU) Mayak noted that although there are three traditional Misseriya migration routes, one through Unity State and one down to Aweil in Northern Bahr al-Ghazal, the NCP continues to emphasize the middle route to Abyei because they see it as a way to advance Misseriya (and NCP) claims in the contested region, "they don't dare KHARTOUM 00001351 002 OF 003 claim special privileges in Unity or Bahr al-Ghazal." Arap noted that as Administrator, he will have authority over all of the security forces in his region, both SAF and SPLM. He plans to order both sides to withdraw, to the north and south, respectively. The CDA remarked that he is primarily concerned by the SAF presence, but he agreed that it is important to be even-handed. NCP's Misseriya Trojan Horse - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (SBU) CDA asked where Mayak's NCP-appointed, ethnic-Misseriya Deputy Administrator Rahama Al-Nour would be located. Mayak replied that he should be in Abyei itself, but that Al-Nour plans to remain in Khartoum for the time being. Mayak said that the two had met earlier that day and that Al-Nour had told him that he wants to move to Abyei soon, but is afraid to do so now because of the high-level of tension there among the Dinka population. Al-Nour was almost killed in May 2008 in Abyei and was only saved through the intervention of SPLA General Piang (Luka Biong Deng's half-brother). ¶9. (SBU) Mayak said he had counseled Al-Nour to remember that he will be in Abyei to represent the NCP, not the Misseriya. He had also warned him that none of the other NCP candidates for office in Abyei are to be from the Misseriya. CDA Fernandez commented that it is good that Al-Nour appears not to be a strong personality. He would have preferred that the Deputy not be a Misseriya, but if it has to be one, it is best to have one who is weak. Mayak remarked that the NCP named a Misseriya as Deputy in order to establish that Abyei is not just the territory of the Ngok Dinka. The Charge agreed, saying that the appointment is an NCP "Trojan horse." Mayak added that he plans to begin a reconciliation program that will embrace all of the region's ethnic groups; Ngok Dinka, Misseriya, Nuer, Nuba, Rizeigat - going beyond Abyei's borders and beyond the usual Misseriya-Dinka dynamic. ¶10. (SBU) CDA remarked that the NCP pays attention to what foreigners say, and we can leverage that to help Mayak and his team. For example, the appointment of the new Abyei Administration just preceded the most recent visit of U.S. Special Envoy Williamson. Knowing that the SE is interested in Abyei, the NCP had made a special effort to point out to that the Administration was in place. Mayak noted that he is constrained in whom he can work with - he is limited to working through only three people, the three members of the Presidency: President Bashir, First Vice President Kiir, and VP Taha. This is a recipe for gridlock. Escaping the "Dinka-Misseriya" Trap - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶11. (SBU) Mayak said he plans to go immediately to Abyei for six days, then travel to Juba or Khartoum, where he will present the list of his Administration appointees for approval. CDA commented that the NCP may use this as an opportunity to try to sneak some more Misseriya into the Administration. He continued that Mayak's plan to promote reconciliation between all of the ethnic groups is a good idea, especially given recent Misseriya-Nuba tensions in Southern Kordofan. ¶12. (SBU) CDA and Mayak agreed that the NCP works to keep the Misseriya focused on the South and Abyei, in order to stir up conflict between them and the Ngok Dinka. The NCP has an established pattern of turning one tribe against another to its own advantage, then the NCP throws them away. It is important to get the Misseriya to realize that their future lies not to the south, but to the north and get them to refocus from Abyei to Kadugli and Muglad in Southern Kordofan (ref. b). This will allow them to escape the NCP's "Dinka-Misseriya trap." Comment - - - - ¶13. (SBU) Mayak made a very good first impression. He seems to have a clear idea of what he wants to do and the energy to get it done. He has a clear-eyed, no nonsense understanding of the NCP's machinations. Mayak's revelation that SAF remains in Difra, well within the interim borders of Abyei and two weeks after their (already delayed) departure is a concern although movement in Abyei in the rainy season is always difficult. He has a difficult job ahead of him, especially since the NCP and SPLM remain stalled on the additional candidates for the interim administration, which will make it difficult for Mayak to begin his work. But in the longer term Mayak will have to deal with the volatile politics on the ground in the aftermath of the fighting, in the midst of constant interference from Khartoum, and to a lesser extent from Juba. His plan to have the annual Misseriya cattle migration being an unarmed one is the right idea but may be very difficult to implement - it KHARTOUM 00001351 003 OF 003 could well be one of many Sudanese flashpoints once the rainy season ends in October. We will be following his progress closely and seek to maximize all forms of US assistance for his new administration. FERNANDEZ