SOUTHERN NCP REP: "WE DO NOT WANT TO BE USED TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000132 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF SE WILLIAMSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2013 TAGS: KDEM KPKO PGOV PREL SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: SOUTHERN NCP REP: "WE DO NOT WANT TO BE USED TO DESTROY THE CPA" Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Jock Dei Deng, Southerner and NCP representative in the GoSS, warned that the 2009 elections will stir up violence and may splinter the South. He said that the North will use this opportunity to prevent or delay the 2011 referendum. He expressed concern that the NCP may use its Southern members to create discontent in the South, thus threatening the implementation of the CPA. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) On 24 January, Jock Dei Deng, NCP member and representative of Upper Nile State in the Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly, called on CDA Fernandez and discussed with him challenges to CPA implementation. Deng, a Nuer and a US citizen, graduated from Peru State College in Nebraska and served as the Secretary General of the Nuer community and Chairman of the Southern Sudan Democratic Front (SSDF) in the United States. After working for the Red Cross and serving as a county correctional officer in Omaha, Deng felt compelled to return to Sudan in 2005 to "assist his people" (the Nuer) in advancing their political interests. Deng's choice of political party is derived from the anger many Eastern Nuer have toward the late John Garang and the SPLM during the inter-ethnic fighting of the 1990s. ¶3. (U) At the time he called on the CDA, Deng was in Khartoum participating in political discussions about the next governorship of Upper Nile State. This governorship is the only one held by the NCP in southern Sudan. -------------- LOSS OF IDENTITY -------------- ¶4. (C) Deng described the political situation in Sudan as "stretched to the maximum capacity." An advocate of unity, he fears that Sudan is losing its identity and warned that various groups and individuals are tearing the country apart by pursuing personal interests over national interests. The CDA shared Deng's concern and noted that if southern Sudan were to succeed after the 2011 referendum vote, it would be a real challenge for the North to merge northern identities and form a unified country. -------------- --- NEITHER THE NCP NOR THE SPLM WILL ACCEPT DEFEAT -------------- --- ¶5. (C) Deng believes that neither the SPLM nor the NCP will accept defeat in the 2009 elections. Both will cheat, he said, in order to remain in power. He believes that it is possible for "separatists and unionists" to unite and beat the SPLM in the South. The South, however, will cheat to prevent this from happening, said Deng. If cheating occurs, the elections may trigger long-term fighting and jeopardize the 2011 referendum. He theorized that the highest probability for fighting is between the North and the South, but said violence could also occur between groups in the South and/or groups in the North. Deng warned that the biggest disaster for the South would be its splintering; something the North would quickly and easily manipulate to its advantage. If Sudan were to forgo presidential elections and instead opt for only state elections in 2009, said Deng, the situation would be far "less dangerous." The CDA responded by saying that the 2009 general elections had already been decided upon. The CDA added that because "more is up for grabs" in 2009, there will certainly be more tension across the country. (Note: In 2009, Sudan will hold elections at six levels: for the presidencies of the GNU and the GoSS, for the National Assembly and the Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly, and for the governorships and state legislatures in all 25 states. End note.) -------------- MILITARIZING THE GOVERNORSHIP -------------- ¶6. (C) Deng expressed concern over the Presidency's imminent decision to replace the current governor of Upper Nile, Dak Dob (NCP),with former Southern Sudan Defense Force (SSDF) Brigadier General and Federal Minister of Animal Resources, Galwak Deng (NCP). He described this appointment as "very suspicious" and criticized the Presidency for attempting to militarize the governorship of Upper Nile State. Deng claimed that by appointing a former military general (who is now aligned with the SAF) to this position, the Presidency is attempting to "sabotage the peace" between the North and the South. -------------- KHARTOUM 00000132 002 OF 002 ADVANCING NUER INTERESTS -------------- ¶7. (C) Deng asked the CDA how he could best represent the Nuer people and preserve Sudanese unity in his political position. Deng admitted that he didn't want to be used by his own party to "destroy the CPA." The CDA recommended Deng examine the interests of his community and choose political alliances accordingly. He warned Deng that the NCP always "uses and tosses aside" its Southern allies and even does the same with Arab militias in Darfur. ¶8. (C) When Deng asked the CDA whether he had a message for "General" Gordon Kong, former Nuer warlord who allied with Riek Machar against John Garang in the early 90s, currently commander of an-NCP funded militia, the CDA said that Kong should find some way to reconcile with t`e SP\M (aKin v/ vhe4 Xaul~oMaTkp ei`).$ If not,tiE cR himself will not play a role in fomenting conflict given his role in the NCP. If violence breaks out among tribal groups or political factions in the South, the North may seek to scuttle or delay the 2011 referendum. The North will also likely seize any opportunity to splinter Southern unity, whether it is through the use of its Southern NCP members in the GoSS or by fomenting discontent in the South. FERNANDEZ