BASHIR OFFERS SCOLDING AND CALL FOR UNITY IN JUBA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 001310 DEPT FOR AF/SPG, A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON NSC FOR BPITTMAN AND CHUDSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS KDEM EAID SOCI SU SUBJECT: BASHIR OFFERS SCOLDING AND CALL FOR UNITY IN JUBA ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In marked contrast with his recent tour of Darfur, and indicative of still-strained relations between the NCP and SPLM, President Bashir's visit to Juba - his first appearance in the South in more than two years and only his second visit to the seat of the GOSS Presidency since the CPA's signing - occurred with little pomp and circumstance. A heavily stage-managed event for the diplomatic corps, ostensibly geared toward illustrating that his presidency continues despite a looming ICC indictment, saw Bashir call for enhanced GNU/GOSS collaboration The visit also allowed him to inaugurate Southern-based hydroelectric projects conceived of and coordinated in Khartoum with no consultation with any officials in Juba. GOSS Regional Cooperation Minister noted to the CG that the GOSS had not even participated in the vetting or selection of the multinational corporations that received the awards. ¶2. (SBU) SUMMARY CONTINUED: The Sudanese president offered initially friendly, but increasingly paternalistic, remarks to the assembled Government of Southern Sudan in a public address carried live throughout the country. In a precursor to NCP positioning during the upcoming 2009 elections, he chided Juba for rejecting technical assistance from Northerners, indirectly made allegations against GOSS corruption, and argued responsibility for delays in CPA implementation rested equally on the GNU and GOSS. He addressed the crisis in Darfur only briefly, blaming his inability to manage the conflict on Washington's broken promises over the lifting of sanctions, and arguing that Ocampo's actions before the ICC only emboldened rebel intransigence against a political settlement. Bashir called for the continued unification of Sudan and pledged that Sudan's 2009 elections would set a positive, new standard for elections in Africa. END SUMAMRY. -------------- BASHIR CALLS FOR A UNITED SUDAN -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Bashir, in a ranging, notes-free address on August 27 before the entire Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly and a 40-person VIP section that included select Southern Governors, the Judiciary of Southern Sudan, and senior leadership of the SPLA and ConGen and Embassy PolOffs, called for the Government of National 
Unity and the Government of Southern Sudan to jointly redouble their efforts to make "voluntary unity attractive" in advance of the 2011 plebiscite on Southern independence. He cited his preference for a united Sudan, pressing his audience to question whether a separate South would necessarily be a better South, indirectly referencing the GOSS's weak capacity for decentralized governance, and the slow realization of peace dividends. "Why is the United States of America strong today?" he asked. "Because it chose to stay together after its war." ¶4. (SBU) The President reminded the assembled officials that he dispatched then-First Vice President Ali Osman Taha to the Naivasha peace talks to give Southerners the choice of separation, not with the intention of dissolving Sudan, but because "I realized after fifty years of war this was the only way to secure lasting peace for my country." With three years remaining until 2011, he continued, the GNU and GOSS must re-double their efforts to erase Southerner resistance to "unity via voluntary decree" - and work harder to do away with the "issues that divide us, and the stigma against the North that Southerners carry within their heads." He offered lip-service to the 2009 elections, and committed Sudan to stand as a model of free and fair elections for "all the world to witness." -------------- JAMES WANI IGGA CRITICIZES OCAMPO -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly (SSLA) Speaker James Wani Igga introduced President Bashir before turning the floor over to a highly deferential First Vice President Kiir, who offered warm but shallow ad-libbed remarks before the President's address. In contrast, Igga gave a hospitable but probing welcome to Bashir. He called on the President to speed demarcation of the 1956 North/South border, incorrectly linking it to the results of the census, but correctly forecasting the challenges it poses for credibly continued redeployment of forces, elections, the referendum, and the implementation of the CPA's wealth sharing agreement. Igga criticized the "unfortunate indictment by Ocampo," stressing his belief that ICC action against President Bashir directly imperiled the CPA. "Only the two partners recognize the delicacy of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, and what is entailed in protecting it. I encourage Ocampo to place peace first in the Sudan," he said. Invoking late SPLM Chairman John Garang de Mabior, Igga reminded listeners of Garang's quote that Sudan's problems are often best reconciled by the Sudanese themselves, noting "a stranger entering a dark room will always break a few pots, while the owner can move KHARTOUM 00001310 002 OF 003 about the entire home with his eyes closed and do no damage." Igga commended Kiir and Bashir for their efforts in finalizing the National Elections Act and Abyei Roadmap. It marked the day's only reference to the still-struggling region. -------------- -------------- BASHIR: GOSS CAPACITY DIFFICULTIES STEM FROM RACISM -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Noting Igga's call for GNU action on the issue, Bashir redirected criticism for delays in the CPA's implementation onto the GOSS. Equal responsibility rested on the governments in both Khartoum and Juba to manage the public's expectations of peace, he maintained. "In particular," he argued, "this required the Government of Southern Sudan to make the common man more confident that government could respond to its needs." To an increasingly quiet audience, Bashir stressed that Juba needed to be more receptive to accepting educated Northern government officials and technical specialists in its ranks. "I recognize that the SPLM has strong leaders, but they lost time when they went into the bush, and then immediately found themselves in ministerial positions following the war. We must be allowed to help you build a cadre of competent civil servants." -------------- CHIDES GOSS MISMANAGEMENT OF NON-OIL REVENUE -------------- ¶7. (SBU) With Kiir visibly stiffening at his side, Bashir then chided the GOSS for its alleged mismanagement of tax revenue, calling on the SSLA to trace where taxes collected by Juba "have gone," noting that the revenue amounted to "almost one billion pounds - nearly as much of the South's oil revenues shares - and yet there was no proof this money was reaching the people or the government." "Imagine what could have been done for development had the Government of Southern Sudan's revenue been doubled?" Whereas the GNU economy was strained by the imposition of international sanctions, Bashir opined, , GOSS officials had constrained the South's economy through their own mismanagement of it.In a backhanded attempt to soften his implication of GOSS corruption, Bashir returned to his push for more involvement by educated Northern technocrats in Southern affairs, stressing that the GNU was prepared to lend experienced managers to the GOSS so as to better maintain and manage revenue collection. (COMMENT: While indicative of the continued tension over North/South non-oil revenue transfers (reftel) the tenor of Bashir's remarks may forecast an NCP campaign strategy to emphasize GOSS, and thereby SPLM, incompetence and corruption. END COMMENT.) -------------- BORDER DEMARCATION DELAYS: THE SPLM's FAULT -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Responding to Igga's calls for swifter action on demarcation of the North/South 1956 border, Bashir turned his criticism to the alleged fickle attitude of Southern technical experts, arguing delays were not the fault of the GNU alone. In the face of a vocal, mid-speech rebuttal by GOSS Vice President Riek Machar, Bashir claimed that the latest Southern technical expert had arrived in Khartoum and, dissatisfied with the work of his predecessors, argued that the entire project be restarted. Machar, seated in the Assembly benches directly across from Bashir, displayed a visceral and fairly exaggerated reaction to President's allegations in full view of the entire audience, twisting around to colleagues behind him and at either side to mock and criticize the President's rendition of events. Bashir continued with his remarks, uninterested and undeterred by Machar's posturing. Staring directly into the bank of television cameras, Bashir warned that the forthcoming demarcation of the 1956 North/South border would be "a challenging, painful experience after which Southerners and Northerners alike would be unhappy." -------------- DARFUR: APPROPRIATING CREDIT . . . -------------- ¶9. (SBU) In remarks that strained the patience of his audience, Bashir addressed the conflict in Darfur only briefly, citing Khartoum's support for 2007 rebel consolidation as proof of his commitment to peace. Strikingly, he gave no credit to President Kiir or the SPLM for their efforts in this regard, yet cited (without offering specifics) a new, Sudanese-driven initiative for peace and calling upon all stakeholders "North and South" to bring lasting peace to the war-torn region. "There will be plots against our success," he argued, referencing recent ICC action. "We must move forward, as there can be no development in Darfur without KHARTOUM 00001310 003 OF 003 peace." -------------- AND BLAMING AMERICA -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Bashir maintained that all of Sudan suffered as a result of the international community's uneven response to the crisis, and that his own efforts to bring peace to Darfur were constrained by Western back-peddling on promises to Khartoum made during negotiations on the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and Darfur Peace Agreement. Bashir criticized the U.S. directly, not only arguing that Washington inexplicably abandoned promises made during the Naivasha peace process linked to sanctions' reprieves and Sudan's removal from the State Sponsor of Terrorism list, but also detailing his fifteen minute conversation with President Bush on the margins of the Darfur Peace Agreement's signing, noting "and yet not even a percentage point of those promises have materialized." "Instead," he argued, "the rebels were given two more weeks, then one more month, then one more year to sign the DPA - and now despite my government's readiness for peace, the international community has turned against us!" In his sole reference to the looming ICC indictment, he cautioned that ICC Prosecutor Ocampo is now emboldening the rebels' resistance to a political settlement by threatening to punish Sudan. -------------- SO LET'S LOOK TO BEIJING -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Bashir insisted that international sanctions, not government inaction, posed the largest threat to nationwide development, but Khartoum was committed to overcoming such obstacles through cooperation with more apolitical allies. China would be funding a "peace road" connecting Kosti, Malakal, Bor, and Juba, and initiating other projects aimed at increasing the South's road connections with both the East and Darfur. (NOTE: The Chinese Ambassador in Khartoum was in attendance for most of the day's event, including Bashir's speech. END NOTE.) Bashir called upon the entire country to fight harder for mutual development in the lead-up to 2011 than they did against each other during the North/South civil war. "Sudan has entered a new war - one for peace and development." Citing the forthcoming hydro-electric projects that had brought him to Juba , the President noted that he wanted to utilize the same technical experts who had built the Merowe dam on the four projects slated for the South. "Sudan needs to look for alternative, sustainable energy sources outside of oil, and if we harness the power of hydroelectricity, we can service the entirety of the Horn." ¶12. (SBU) Comment: Southerners generally viewed this visit by Bashir with great skepticism, casting it as little more than a publicity tour for the GNU President to show he is the beneficent leader of all Sudan, sharing the wealth and extending his hand in friendship to all, as he faces "unjustified" ICC indictments. His reception by GOSS leaders was respectful, but far short of warm. Many told ConGen Juba they would have preferred that Bashir not come at all. ASQUINO