SPLM CONCERNED ABOUT BASHIR'S RHETORIC, REPORT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001283 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AND AF/SPG NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2018 TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU SUBJECT: SPLM CONCERNED ABOUT BASHIR'S RHETORIC, REPORT PROGRESS ON MEDIA AND SECURITY LAWS Classified By: CDA Mark Asquino for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) During a meeting with A/CDA Asquino and polchief May 20, GNU State Ministers of Agriculture and Justice expressed their concerns about recent statements by President Bashir during his visit to Turkey. Specifically, they are concerned about Bashir's threat that he would expel UN peacekeepers if the ICC issues an arrest warrant against him. They also noted Bashir's comments that an arrest warrant would only strengthen his hand within the regime and as leader of Sudan. State Minister of Agriculture Ubuch Ujwok observed that there has been a gradual toughening in Bashir's rhetoric recently, and reported that the regime is also hardening its position with regard to SPLM participation in resolving the Darfur crisis. He noted that when FVP Kiir was named to head the ICC higher level response committee, the SPLM proposal was for Kiir to travel to Darfur to meet with leader there, but instead President Bashir traveled to Darfur. Ujwok linked the tougher stand by the President partly to the SPLM's announcement that Kiir would stand for national election. Ujwok said Bashir complained to Kiir in their last meeting in Khartoum that he felt the SPLM had exploited the ICC arrest warrant issue to publicize that Kiir would run for national president soon after Ocampo's announcement. ¶2. (C) State Minister for Justice Wek Mamer Kuol said the NCP/SPLM executive committee has been negotiating this week on several fronts, including draft laws on the media and security that will soon be presented to the National Constitutional Review Commission (NCRC). He said the media law would address some of the concerns of political parties regarding freedom of speech during elections. Kuol also reported that the executive committee is drafting legislation that would enable the Sudanese government to try perpetrators of war crimes. Kuol said there has been good progress on the laws, as the regime is eager to show movement on the ICC front (and the elections front) in advance of any discussion of a possible article 16 resolution at the UN Security Council. ¶3. (C) Simultaneous to the discussions of draft laws, Kuol said the GOSS Finance Minister is in Khartoum to discuss oil revenue sharing issues, including revenue streams based on the Abyei roadmap agreement. (Note: On the evening A/CDA and polchief met these two State Ministers at the Rotana Hotel, the lounge was full of SPLM officials including the GOSS Finance Minister and the GNU's next Permanent Representative to the UN, SPLM member Lumumba di-Aping. End note.) ¶4. (C) Kuol and Ujwok reported their observations of increased intrigue within the NCP and speculated that VP Taha and Salah Ghosh may be angling to take over, but did not provide any specific information to support this claim. They said it also appeared as if GNU Finance Minister and NCP regime insider Awad Aljaz appeared to have a strengthened hand. They reported that Aljaz recently demanded the immediate elimination of all tariffs to truck transport along the highways between Port Sudan, Khartoum, Kadugli, and other transport hubs without consulting others in the government or accepting any dissent to the proposal. ¶5. (C) Comment: Bashir's toughened rhetoric is troubling, but to be expected, as the reality of the serious possibility of an arrest warrant being issued sinks in. It is certainly possible that the regime will take some action against UNMIS or UNAMID following the possible issuance of an arrest warrant, though this would represent a reverse in course for a regime that has attempted to demonstrate increased cooperation with the UN and the international community over the last year, and the regime is aware of the possible serious repercussions of following through on the President's threats. More likely, the regime will continue on in its now well-honed state-of-siege strategy with a combination of bluster, threats, obstruction, negotiation, and acquiescence in exchange for international concessions. The reported progress on media and security laws this week, if accurate, is a positive sign and shows a regime that is still interested in demonstrating progress to the international community. The regime's "People's Initiative on Darfur" headed by Bashir himself still has not been announced as expected. The regime reportedly is playing various factions and political parties off one another, and there are persistent reports that some parties such as Umma have refused to sign off on the initiative. KHARTOUM 00001283 002 OF 002 ASQUINO