SPLM CONCERNED ABOUT BASHIR'S RHETORIC, REPORT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001283

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2018
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: SPLM CONCERNED ABOUT BASHIR'S RHETORIC, REPORT
PROGRESS ON MEDIA AND SECURITY LAWS

Classified By: CDA Mark Asquino for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) During a meeting with A/CDA Asquino and polchief May
20, GNU State Ministers of Agriculture and Justice expressed
their concerns about recent statements by President Bashir
during his visit to Turkey. Specifically, they are concerned
about Bashir's threat that he would expel UN peacekeepers if
the ICC issues an arrest warrant against him. They also
noted Bashir's comments that an arrest warrant would only
strengthen his hand within the regime and as leader of Sudan.
State Minister of Agriculture Ubuch Ujwok observed that
there has been a gradual toughening in Bashir's rhetoric
recently, and reported that the regime is also hardening its
position with regard to SPLM participation in resolving the
Darfur crisis. He noted that when FVP Kiir was named to head
the ICC higher level response committee, the SPLM proposal
was for Kiir to travel to Darfur to meet with leader there,
but instead President Bashir traveled to Darfur. Ujwok
linked the tougher stand by the President partly to the
SPLM's announcement that Kiir would stand for national
election. Ujwok said Bashir complained to Kiir in their last
meeting in Khartoum that he felt the SPLM had exploited the
ICC arrest warrant issue to publicize that Kiir would run for
national president soon after Ocampo's announcement.


2. (C) State Minister for Justice Wek Mamer Kuol said the
NCP/SPLM executive committee has been negotiating this week
on several fronts, including draft laws on the media and
security that will soon be presented to the National
Constitutional Review Commission (NCRC). He said the media
law would address some of the concerns of political parties
regarding freedom of speech during elections. Kuol also
reported that the executive committee is drafting legislation
that would enable the Sudanese government to try perpetrators
of war crimes. Kuol said there has been good progress on the
laws, as the regime is eager to show movement on the ICC
front (and the elections front) in advance of any discussion
of a possible article 16 resolution at the UN Security
Council.


3. (C) Simultaneous to the discussions of draft laws, Kuol
said the GOSS Finance Minister is in Khartoum to discuss oil
revenue sharing issues, including revenue streams based on
the Abyei roadmap agreement. (Note: On the evening A/CDA and
polchief met these two State Ministers at the Rotana Hotel,
the lounge was full of SPLM officials including the GOSS
Finance Minister and the GNU's next Permanent Representative
to the UN, SPLM member Lumumba di-Aping. End note.)


4. (C) Kuol and Ujwok reported their observations of
increased intrigue within the NCP and speculated that VP Taha
and Salah Ghosh may be angling to take over, but did not
provide any specific information to support this claim. They
said it also appeared as if GNU Finance Minister and NCP
regime insider Awad Aljaz appeared to have a strengthened
hand. They reported that Aljaz recently demanded the
immediate elimination of all tariffs to truck transport along
the highways between Port Sudan, Khartoum, Kadugli, and other
transport hubs without consulting others in the government or
accepting any dissent to the proposal.


5. (C) Comment: Bashir's toughened rhetoric is troubling, but
to be expected, as the reality of the serious possibility of
an arrest warrant being issued sinks in. It is certainly
possible that the regime will take some action against UNMIS
or UNAMID following the possible issuance of an arrest
warrant, though this would represent a reverse in course for
a regime that has attempted to demonstrate increased
cooperation with the UN and the international community over
the last year, and the regime is aware of the possible
serious repercussions of following through on the President's
threats. More likely, the regime will continue on in its now
well-honed state-of-siege strategy with a combination of
bluster, threats, obstruction, negotiation, and acquiescence
in exchange for international concessions. The reported
progress on media and security laws this week, if accurate,
is a positive sign and shows a regime that is still
interested in demonstrating progress to the international
community. The regime's "People's Initiative on Darfur"
headed by Bashir himself still has not been announced as
expected. The regime reportedly is playing various factions
and political parties off one another, and there are
persistent reports that some parties such as Umma have
refused to sign off on the initiative.

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ASQUINO