THE EASTERN FRONT: LEADERSHIP IN CRISIS AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 001257 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/SPG, A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON NSC FOR HUDSON AND PITTMAN DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI ECON SU SUBJECT: THE EASTERN FRONT: LEADERSHIP IN CRISIS AND ELECTION PLANS LACKING REF: A. KHARTOUM 1229 ¶B. KHARTOUM 1202 Classified By: A/CDA Mark Asquino, reasons 1.4(b) and (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) On August 17 poloffs met representatives of the Free Lions Organization of Khartoum State to discuss reports that Eastern Front Chairman Musa Mohamed Ahmed had been stripped of his leadership. The representatives denied this was the case, describing instead a leadership squabble in which Eastern Front Deputy Chairman Amna Dirar had attempted to take control of the organization after accusing its Chairman of maintaining dual loyalties. With a struggle for leadership and no clear outlook or strategy for the 2009 elections, the movement is now at a crossroads, they said. Given the lack of implementation of the ESPA, they stated that the Eastern Front may have outlived its usefulness anyway and there might be no choice but to dissolve it and return to war. End Summary. -------------- CRISIS OF LEADERSHIP -------------- ¶2. (C) On August 17 poloffs met with Hameed Mohamed Hamid, Secretary General of the Free Lions Organization of Khartoum State, and Hamid Ali Suliman, its Secretary for Political Affairs, to discuss the state of political affairs of the Eastern Front. (Note: Formed in 2005, the Eastern Front is a coalition of former rebels who signed the Eastern Sudan Peace Agreement (ESPA) with the Government of Sudan in 2007. The coalition includes the Beja Congress, representing the non-Arab Beja tribe, and the Free Lions, representing the Arab Rashaida tribe. End Note.) The meeting occurred in the midst of a developing power struggle for control of the movement: on August 15 Eastern Front Deputy Chairman Amna Dirar declared that Musa Mohamed Ahmed had been suspended as Chairman and she had taken control of the organization. ¶3. (C) Hamid and Suliman stated that while Ahmed was convening a Beja Congress conference in the Red Sea town of Erkowiet on August 15, Dirar convened a separate meeting of the Eastern Front at Khartoum University. Upset that Ahmed was fulfilling dual roles as head of both the Beja Congress and the Eastern Front, Dirar and her supporters declared Ahmed to be suspended from his role as Chairman. "We have frozen his membership," she stated in a report. Hamid and Suliman, however, claimed that Dirar lacked the authority to convene a meeting of the Eastern Front without the participation of the Chairman, and said that the declaration was an attempt to take control of the organization. Still in Erkowiet, Ahmed did not immediately respond. (Note: Post will meet with Dirar and Ahmed in the coming days to discuss the status of the Eastern Front's leadership. End Note.) ¶4. (C) According to Hamid and Suliman, the Eastern Front has operated with a tripartite leadership. Ahmed, from the Hadendawa tribe of the Beja, has served as its Chairman; Dirar, of the smaller Beni Amer (Beja) tribe, has served as Deputy Chairman; and Mubarak Mabrouk Salem of the Rashaida (Arab) tribe has served as its Secretary General. After the signing of the ESPA, the three joined the Government of National Unity (GNU) as Assistant to the President, Presidential Advisor, and State Minister of Transportation, respectively. Hamid and Suliman observed that among Eastern Front Leadership, Dirar is the only one without a political party structure to support her. (Note: Ahmed represents the Beja Congress, while Salem represents the Free Lions. End Note). Her efforts to control the Eastern Front, they said, may represent an attempt to obtain more political support. ¶5. (C) As a result of Dirar's actions, Hamid observed that the prospects for the Eastern Front now hang in the balance. Dirar "has created a problem that needs to be solved" before the Eastern Front can move forward, he said. Suliman added that due to the lack of ESPA implementation by the Government of National Unity (GNU),the movement may have outlived its usefulness anyway and the parties may have no choice but to dissolve it and "go back to square one" by returning to war, he said. (Note: on August 10 Amna Dirar stated in an interview that she was afraid of a return to war as a result of frustration with non-implementation of the ESPA. End Note.) KHARTOUM 00001257 002 OF 003 -------------- -------------- A DISINTEGRATING MOVEMENT, FURTHER AGITATED BY NCP MEDDLING -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Currently, Eastern parties hold eight seats in the National Assembly: two for the Rashaida Free Lions, four for the Beja Congress Party, and two for smaller Eastern parties. Hamid and Suliman stated that given the burgeoning leadership crisis within the Eastern Front, it is uncertain whether candidates from the East will run on a coalesced Eastern Front platform or represent their own parties. They made it clear that the immediate problem between Amna Dirar and Musa Mohamed Ahmed will dictate how unified the Front is in its electoral stance. ¶7. (C) Suliman and Hamid revealed, not surprisingly, that the NCP consistently tries to undermine the Eastern Front by creating fractures within the movement. The NCP tries to create problems within the Front in order to keep Eastern Front members "busy," they explained. It will be very difficult, however, for the NCP to split the Beja and the Rashaida because both parties are vehemently anti-NCP, and neither party will stand with the NCP, they said. ¶8. (C) Asked whether the Eastern Front is supportive of the upcoming elections, Hamid stated that it is "too early to tell" because of the internal divisions plaguing the Front. There is disagreement among the leadership of the Front and restlessness in the Movement's base because of the lack of ESPA implementation and impending food crisis (ref A and B). Hamid was unable to forecast what role the Front might play in the Sudanese Government following elections. -------------- -------------- UNCERTAIN OF ELECTORAL STRATEGIES, RUNNING MATES -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) As far as electoral partners go, the Eastern Front has reached out to the SPLM for an official coalition. According to the Free Lions members, the SPLM has not yet responded to the Movement's request. The Eastern Front has also been in contact with the Sudan Liberation Movement/ Minni Minnawi (SLM/MM),with which it has formed an unofficial coalition. In the past, the Eastern Front had good relations with most of its fellow National Democratic Alliance (NDA) parties, but since the signing of the ESPA and the signing of individual parties' agreements with the NCP (such as DUP-Mirghani and the National Umma Party),each northern party has "gone its own way." ¶10. (C) Hamid and Suliman characterized the newly-passed electoral law as an "NCP law." Although the Eastern Front provided input to the drafting of the law when it was with the National Constitutional Review Commission (NCRC),the representatives claimed the Front is displeased with the final draft of the law. "We (the Eastern Front parties) demonstrated against the act when it was before Parliament," said the Free Lions, "but no one paid attention to us." Their biggest gripe with the law is that the 25 percent of women to be elected to the national and state assemblies should be based on a first-past-the-post list rather than a proportional list. ¶11. (C) The Eastern Front members stated that the biggest obstacles to the Front ahead of the elections are: lack of freedom of speech, lack of resources, lack of a national presence, and lack of the implementation of the ESPA. Although the GoS promised to provide money for the Eastern Front to establish an office in Khartoum, the money was never handed over. Furthermore, they said, lack of coordination within the Front itself is a major problem. There are some differences between the parties of the East, but the parties' basic platform is the same: protect the rights and interests of the people in the East and implement the ESPA. If we present a unified front, said Hamid and Suliman, we stand a better chance of seeing that these issues are addressed. ¶12. (C) Hamid predicted that the NCP will win the elections in the North and the SPLM will win in the South. The NCP and the SPLM are the "face of one choir", he said. The SPLM has given several speeches about the South, but never addresses issues ongoing in other parts of the country such as Darfur and the East. Hamid stated that the SPLM will never divest itself of its relationship with the NCP so as to keep its grip on power in the South, as well as in the GNU. KHARTOUM 00001257 003 OF 003 -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) The failure of the GOS to implement the ESPA, combined with internal squabbling and a lack of a clear strategy, bodes ill for the continued stability of the Eastern Front. While the situation in the East remains stable for now, this lack of political cohesion and reports of restless former fighters and impending famine (refs A and B) are worrying signs. At this point in time it does not appear as if the Eastern Front is seriously considering a return to war, nor is Eritrea (the former patron of the eastern rebels) interested in encouraging the former rebels to do so. Eastern parties could play a significant role in the upcoming elections if they can manage to navigate the current leadership crisis within the Eastern Front and map out an effective electoral strategy. However, eastern parties are often ignored by other political actors, including the SPLM which they once vigorously supported during the civil war. If the Front is able to make any progress - whether in fighting for implementation of the ESPA or presenting a cohesive electoral strategy and slate of candidates - it must put its own house in order first. ASQUINO