SE WILLIAMSON MEETING WITH DAVID GRESSLY, UNMIS REGIONAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001209 DEPT FOR AF/SPG, A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON NSC FOR BPITTMAN AND CHUDSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: SE WILLIAMSON MEETING WITH DAVID GRESSLY, UNMIS REGIONAL COORDINATOR, SOUTHERN SUDAN -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) On August 9, Special Envoy Williamson met with David Gressly, UNMIS Regional Coordinator for Southern Sudan, to discuss the situation in Abyei and the ICC indictment. During the meeting in Khartoum, Gressly cited recent successes in the political situation throughout Sudan. However, he expressed concern about continuing border tensions and the possible impact of an ICC arrest warrant against President Bashir. -------------- SOME PROGRESS IN ABYEI -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Gressly noted there had been modest progress in Abyei, including the redeployment of troops on both sides. To date, a small SAF force remains in Difra, he said, and a residual SPLA military police force lingers in Agok. Joint integrated units (JIUs) are in place in Abyei town. They plan to deploy north to Difra and south to Agok following the complete withdrawal of SAF and SPLA forces. The GOS mobilized joint integrated police units (JIPUs); nevertheless, Gressly reported that the JIPUs continue to suffer from "logistical constraints", including lack of food. The government has appointed an interim administration for Abyei. The SPLM Administrator (Arop Mayak Toj) is the current Disarmament-Demobilization-Reintegration (DDR) Commissioner for the South, while his deputy is Rahama Al-Nur of the NCP. According to Gressly, unfortunately Arop is not known for being a strong administrator. ¶3. (SBU) Regarding returnees, Gressly predicted that current rainy season and its flooding could push people back into Abyei town because the town sits on a plateau. Gressly stated that people will return despite the lack of services (schools, health clinics, etc.) currently available in Abyei. He added that security concerns for relief agencies working in the area may be "overplayed," and that donors need to encourage implementing partners to return to Abyei. According to Gressly's assessment, effective deployment of JIPUs will be key to avoiding future conflict and UNMIS should provide protection to facilitate voluntary returns (more than the JIUs). ¶4. (SBU) Gressly informed the SE that the UNMIS "post Abyei flare up" investigation was beginning. He said UNMIS needed to have a better understanding of its mandate to protect civilians, and to determine if organizational capacity will allow UNMIS to meet this mandate. The SE noted that the current UNMIS deployments have insufficient forces positioned in the most potentially explosive areas. Gressly confirmed that UNMIS has adjusted to the needs with a force increase of 200. He also stated that there needs to be a recognition of events leading to the recent conflict so that earlier intervention is possible in the future. ¶5. (SBU) Gressly expressed concern that there are still several crisis points where conflict would erupt along the North/South border in Southern Kordofan and even Darfur. Forces along the border in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile State need to be reduced to peace-time levels in accordance with the CPA. Although the SPLA will never fully withdraw as long as SAF forces are in the area, there needs to be some push on DDR efforts to bring the SPLA into compliance. Since many of the SPLA troops on the border are from that area, the best solution is not to move them away from the border, but to demobilize them - however the SPLA resists this. They need reintegration assistance in developing livelihood skills or returning to farming. -------------- ICC INDICTMENT- "GOOD BEHAVIOR TIME" -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Addressing the July 14 decision by the ICC to pursue an indictment against President Bashir, Gressly postulated that the ICC indictment has actually created a window of opportunity between ICC Chief Prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo's announcement of his request for an arrest warrant against President Bashir and either the issuance of the warrant or passage of an Article 16 resolution by the Security Council. He referred to this period as "good behavior time." According to Gressly, UNMIS operations have eased since the arrest warrant request. He highlighted movement on the Abyei roadmap, including the withdrawal of the 31st division and agreement on the interim administration, as evidence that the GOS is attempting to demonstrate more cooperation. Gressly opined that the international community should look for ways to extend that window of opportunity KHARTOUM 00001209 002 OF 002 to extract further steps by the NCP towards solving Sudan's problems. Additionally, he warned that if it becomes clear that there will be no Article 16 resolution to postpone the ICC's case, the situation in Darfur may become very difficult, and the GOS may mobilize the local Darfuri population that supports Bashir. The reaction would likely be less severe in the South where supply lines from East Africa still exist, and the lines could extend all the way into Darfur. ¶7. (U) SE Williamson cleared this cable prior to transmission. FERNANDEZ